(photo: AP Photo)
2024 Tournament Record: 20-15 (2023: 27-10)
Sweet 16 Card:
Thursday:
Clemson +7 (7:09pm ET – CBS)
SDSU/UConn under 136 (7:39pm – TBS)
UNC -3.5 (9:39pm – CBS)
Illinois +2 (10:09pm – TBS)
Friday:
Marquette -6.5 & Marquette TT over 78.5 (7:09pm – CBS)
Gonzaga +5.5 (7:39pm – TBS)
Duke/Houston 1H under 63 (9:39pm – CBS)
Tennessee -2.5 (10:09pm – TBS)
(Lines may change a tad while I am writing this blog. Don’t kill me if they do! Posting what I played)
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Clemson +7 : We are 2-0 ATS with the Tigers in this tournament and we aren’t stopping now! Chase Hunter is absolutely cooking. Hard to argue with what PJ Hall said in this interview:
Not only has Hunter scored 20+ points in the opening two rounds, but he is also facilitating better than he has all year. Chase recorded 6 assists in BOTH of these games. The defense has been phenomenal as well. He completely had Jamal Mashburn Jr. in his pocket in the opening round, and then created a ton of havoc for the Baylor backcourt in the R32. The Tigers are playing with two elite players at the moment and the rest of the cast is doing a phenomenal job of filling in the gaps. This team is dangerous.
I like this matchup for Clemson against Arizona. Here are some of the Tiger strengths per Shot Quality:
The post-up stat is intriguing after you take a deep dive into Arizona’s profile. Arizona is 282nd in the country in SQ PPP allowed in post-up scenarios. This will be a juicy way for Clemson to attack the Wildcat defense with Hall, Clark, and Schieffelin. DaRon Holmes showed us some of these cracks in the post-up defense as well. Arizona is also 190th in the country in Open 3 rate allowed on defense. Clemson’s profile of being the 13th most efficient 3PT shooting team + the 14th best spacing team will lead to some huge momentum threes in this matchup.
Arizona is a great team that have matchup edges as well. They will likely win this game. I just feel like Clemson has enough of a punch to keep us within this number here. Give us the points. This is my Best Bet for Thursday.
Score Prediction: Arizona 78 – Clemson 74
SDSU/UConn under 136 : It is truly amazing how good this UConn defense is. The Huskies are coming off of 2023 championship where they only allowed 59.2 ppg in the tournament. Don’t look now … but the defense might even be better this year. The Huskies are currently rated #1 in the SQ adjDEF rating. UConn only allowed 57 points to Marquette in the Big East Championship. They followed up that impressive performance by only allowing 56 PPG in the first two rounds of this year’s tournament. The defensive gameplan and execution against Northwestern was so impressive. The 58 point total was not a fluke. The ShotQuality score actually shows that Northwestern should have only scored 55 points. Donovan Clingan is actually not fair:
San Diego State can also defend their asses off. The Aztecs are 9th in the KenPom adjusted defensive rating. This will be the best defensive team that the Huskies have faced all year long. This is also a rematch of the national title game from a year ago & should provide some extra defensive intensity for both units. Pace should also be in our favor here. It may shock you, but UConn is only 315th in the country in adjusted tempo. Brian Dutcher will also implement an offensive gameplan to keep this to a low possession game. That is the best way to not allow the UConn talent advantage takeover.
San Diego State may keep this one close for a while, but the Huskies are inevitable. I like UConn to win by double digits while keeping us under this total.
Score Prediction: UConn 71 – San Diego State 61
UNC -3.5 (FanDuel) : Alabama was extremely lucky to defeat Grand Canyon and make it to the Sweet 16. Even with the 10-0 run to end the game, the ShotQuality score only showed that they should have won that game by 4 points (89-85). It was very sloppy and the only player that was playing efficiently was Mark Sears. That won’t cut it against the Heels. The defensive edge for North Carolina in this matchup is too much to overcome.
The Hubert Davis doubters have to admit it at this point. He has developed an elite defense in Year 3. The Tar Heels rank 6th in the adjusted defensive efficiency rating on KenPom, and ShotQuality has them at 7th in their adjDEF rating. The Crimson Tide rank 101st and 80th in those same ratings. The edge that Alabama normally has on the offensive end is negated in this matchup because North Carolina is just as good on that end of the court. Grand Canyon exploited Alabama’s glaring weakness on the defensive glass. The Tide are 340th (!!!) in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. The Lopes were able to take advantage of this and grab 15 offensive rebounds. The Heels are 56th in the country in grabbing offensive rebounds and should be able to deliver close to the same amount of damage in that regard.
Alabama is also entering this matchup a little bit banged up. It appears that Oats is claiming that Wrightsell will be available for this game. I guess we have to take him at his word, but Wrightsell has been in and out of this lineup so many times this year. I am not sure that you can count on this.
North Carolina is the better team here. The defensive edge will help them win this one down the stretch. I am laying the points.
Score Prediction: North Carolina 87 – Alabama 80
Illinois +2 : This is a major contrast in styles. One of the best offenses in the country vs one of the best defenses in the country. I am siding with the offense and Mr. Terrence Shannon Jr. in this one.
Iowa State gets a lot of their offense from turnovers that lead to transition buckets. Illinois does not force a ton of turnovers, but when they do it is almost always an automatic bucket the other way:
The Illini will get downhill no matter the situation. It doesn’t have to be a turnover. They can beat you like this on a missed or made shot as well. Illinois sits at 17th in the country in SQ PPP in transition, and Iowa State is 32nd. I think if Illinois can beat Iowa State at their own game in transition, then their vastly better halfcourt offense will be the difference maker in this game.
The ShotQuality model agrees heavily with my sentiment. The Illinois defense isn’t as bad as most are saying. They are 55th in the SQ adjDEF rating. They will do enough to get Illinois the win here. I will always ride with Terrence Shannon Jr. in a close game in a tournament setting. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Illinois 74 – Iowa State 71
Marquette -6.5 and TT over 78.5 : This is going to be the snoozer of the Sweet 16, folks. I am expecting a full on blitzing by the Golden Eagles.
Oso Ighodaro is a big reason why Marquette will win this going away.
Oso will do similar things to DJ Burns Jr. as he did to Eddie Lampkin yesterday. He is too quick and athletic for a defender of this build to stay in front. I think Ighodaro also has an edge on Diarra if he were to guard him as well. Oso can pull Diarra away from the basket and that will leave driving opportunities for Kolek and Jones. This is a lose-lose situation for the Wolfpack defensively.
Tyler Kolek is healthy. That is an understatement. Kolek may be my player of the tournament to this point.
I don’t see any way for NC State to keep up with what Kolek & Ighodaro will do to them offensively. The Golden Eagles have a point to prove, and I think they do it in a big way in this game. Marquette -6.5 is my Best Bet for Friday & and I will also be taking the TT over 78.5.
Score Prediction: Marquette 84 – NC State 70
Gonzaga +5.5 : I have a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than the market indicates. This is a rematch of a Maui Invitational game. The Boilermakers were able to win that game by 10 points. Things are a lot different now. Most notably? Mark Few’s decision to give a starting role & minutes to Ben Gregg instead of Dusty Stromer.
The Zags are 16-2 since making that switch. Mark Few says it all in the interview above. Gregg is the heart and soul of this team and they are better when he is on the court.
Gonzaga is not hurting for bodies to compete with Edey in the post & on the glass. Watson, Ike, Huff and Gregg are all capable of switching off duties to ensure nobody gets into serious foul trouble. Even without Gregg in a starting role, the Zags were still able to outrebound Purdue on the offensive glass 13 to 8 in the previous meeting. I like their chances to *limit* the damage from Edey in comparison to what he did to Utah State.
We also need to talk about Ryan Nembhard. He is averaging 10.8 assists in his last 5 games. This play creation will be needed in a big time game like this.
I think this game comes down to the final possession & that Purdue is barely able to survive and advance. I would not be stunned to see Gonzaga pull the upset. Predicting a nailbiter and maybe even an extra frame for all of you sickos who love crazy props (I do not recommend!).
Score Prediction: Purdue 78 – Gonzaga 77
Duke/Houston 1H under 63 : Both of these teams are coming off of a ton of points scored in the Round of 32. Duke was able to get this done by hitting 14 threes combined a snowball of momentum that starting rolling from the opening tip against JMU. Houston got there a bit differently. The Cougars got into an up & down “Who can drive to the basket the fastest?” contest with A&M. The foul trouble and free throws that they allowed almost got them bounced from the tournament way sooner than expected.
Houston’s mistakes in the Texas A&M game lead me to believe they will try to get back to a “slow it down” halfcourt pace. The Cougars rank 346th in the country in adjusted tempo. That will be just fine with Duke. They prefer to play in the halfcourt as well and their adjusted tempo number is 245th. I also think that both offenses may experience a bit of culture shock in playing one another after how easy they found it to score in the last round. These defenses are ELITE. Houston ranks 2nd in SQ and KenPom in defensive efficiency, and Duke ranks 9th and 18th.
I believe that we see a slow start out of the gate in this one. Give us the 1H under.
Score Prediction: Houston 30 – Duke 29
Tennessee -2.5: This was very close to a Best Bet. We placed a +1800 ticket on the Vols to be our national champion when the bracket was announced. I still am in love with our ticket. This team is for real.
Let’s talk about Dalton Knecht. I really enjoyed Mark Titus’ breakdown of what Knecht means to Tennessee’s tournament run.
This point is so important. Especially with an opponent like Creighton. The Jays have Alexander and Scheierman that they know they can count on in these moments. Tennessee would likely lose a game like this in previous years. Knecht fills a major gap in what will bring Tennessee from a successful program that never gets it done, to a team that can compete to win the whole thing.
The Volunteer defense continues to be elite. The Vols are 3rd in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency rating. That is how they will win this game. Creighton would have to destroy Tennessee from the three point line to win this game, and I just don’t see it. The Vols are rated 2nd in the country in Open 3 Rate defensively per ShotQuality. They aggressively contest these attempts. Creighton struggled with the physicality of Dante and Couisnard in the Oregon game, and were very lucky to make it out alive to the Sweet 16. Tennessee has the depth to enforce the same physicality and be relentless until the final whistle.
Cue Rocky Top.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 75 – Creighton 68
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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