(photo: Michael Conroy – AP)
2024 Tournament Record: 27-22
Final Four Card:
Purdue TT over 77.5
Alabama 1H under 35.5
Final Four Props:
Zach Edey over 2.5 assists +159
DJ Burns Jr under 13.5 points -122
Mark Sears over 2.5 threes made -120
Tristen Newton under 16.5 points -105
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Purdue TT over 77.5 : The Boilermaker offense is absolutely humming. The Zach Edey led offense is averaging 84 ppg in the this year’s tournament. This includes a 72 point performance against a Tennessee defensive unit that was playing as well as anyone in the country. It starts with the big man. There is simply no answer for Edey at this point in his career. His knowledge of the game (and the way it is called – pour one out again for the Vols) has risen to an even higher level than we have seen from him before. He is putting on one of the most impressive individual performances we have ever seen in March Madness. We all have to respect it. His ability to score and facilitate (will get into this later) in this game will be the reason why Purdue clears this total.
Purdue’s style will translate just fine to a football stadium backdrop. They do not have to rely on the three ball. I don’t see many answers in this NC State team defensively for Purdue. I will attack this angle instead of worrying about laying points even though I lean Purdue as the favorite as well.
Score Prediction: Purdue 82 points
Alabama 1H under 35.5 : I wanted exposure to this ferocious UConn defense tonight. This is the best angle to attack in my opinion. The Huskies are only allowing 22.8 ppg in the 1H in this tournament. 22.8!!! (wtf). Dan Hurley has his guys taking pride in coming out and completely putting a stranglehold on their opponent. I believe they do so again today.
Alabama is 3rd in the country in Rim & 3 rate per ShotQuality. Nate Oats ensures that his guys are either getting shots at the rim or getting off a three point attempt. Spoiler Alert! They will not be getting many shots at the rim tonight.
The Donovan Clingan rim protection cannot be overstated. The Illini were 0-19 on shots challenging Clingan in the Elite 8 domination by the Huskies. I expect the Tide to rely heavily on the three point line due to this. That is not always a recipe for success in Final Fours. We have seen the shooting backdrop of football stadiums create real problems for jump shooting reliant teams. This is especially true in first halves. Also, I am daring Jarin Stevenson to shoot early threes if I am Danny Hurley. Stevenson was barely a 30% three point shooter coming into the Tide’s game against Clemson where he made 5 three pointers. I would live with letting him try to be the one to beat you from deep early.
This is my favorite play of the night and a Best Bet. The UConn defense continues to stand on business in this one.
Score Prediction: Alabama 31 points
Zach Edey over 2.5 assists : This is going to be a big facilitation night for Edey in my opinion. NC State has no answer on the roster for what Edey brings offensively. They are going to have to send helpless doubles (and triples) all game long. This will allow Edey to either going to kick to Jones, Loyer or Smith for threes … dish wrap-arounds to Kaufman-Renn .. or find Gillis or Heide on cuts to the rim. Edey has recorded 3 assists or more 14 times this season. I think this is a great matchup to take a shot at plus money.
Score Prediction: Zach Edey 3 assists
DJ Burns Jr under 13.5 points : This is probably the biggest downer bet I have placed this season. Going into a game rooting for DJ Burns Jr. not to score is not a great feeling. However, I believe it is necessary tonight. The mixture of Edey, Kaufman-Renn and Gillis is going to be a massive problem for DJ tonight. They all have the quickness and physicality to bang with him when he wants to get physical. The Boilermakers are also insanely disciplined in their interior defense. There won’t be many opportunities at the line in this one for Burns. I also fear for him defensively. Foul trouble seems like a real possibility tonight. The spike in performance has DJ’s number this high, but we are really just betting on him to score his season average or less. That seems like a good bet.
Score Prediction: DJ Burns 12 points
Mark Sears over 2.5 threes : This is my favorite prop of the night and another Best Bet. As I discussed earlier, I believe that there will be a heavy volume of three point attempts from the Tide tonight. Especially from Mr. Sears. He is averaging 4.3 makes on 9.5 attempts from distance in this tournament. I believe we see the same (if not more) volume tonight from Sears. I am trusting the All-American to knock down at least three of them. Sears is probably to only Alabama player I trust tonight.
Score Prediction: Mark Sears 4 threes
Tristen Newton under 16.5 points : Trust me. I believe Newton could score 20+ tonight if he wanted to. This is a great matchup for him offensively. However, I believe he will find more joy facilitating tonight. Newton is one of the best passers in the country, and I believe it will be easy for him to drive and find open teammates all night long against the suspect Alabama defense. The points will be spread around evenly through the Huskies roster tonight in my opinion. I think Newton stays under the 16.5.
Score Prediction: Tristen Newton 14 points
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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