(photo: Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI)
Fellas….
As lame as it sounds, LFG just keeps ringing through my head. College basketball is back in our lives ONE WEEK from today! This will be my fifth year running this Twitter/X account & blog. So damn crazy to think about. What a ride it has been! Winning bets with all of you is a high that I just can’t get enough of. The best part about our little community? We haven’t clout farmed. Every single follow was gained organically & I love that. The interaction that we have through Twitter, DM’s and texts is way better than chasing monster follower numbers that gain no interaction. I appreciate all of you. Especially the ones that come and check out the blog on a regular basis.
Important – Please Read:
Let’s go ahead and get this out of the way and then we can get to the futures! I can’t lie guys.. I have toyed around with the idea of rolling out a paid subscription wall for my content. I was very close to making that call. The reasoning for that is this takes a lot of effort and time. Like, a lot. I also believe that I have separated myself from the large majority of the college basketball gambling community that does charge for picks. It would also make sense for me to do financially. However, I have decided to keep everything free for this season. It is the right call. I want all of y’all included in this run we are going to go on this season! I am going to start including a CashApp account (or something similar to that) at the end of every blog when the season gets rolling. My hope is that you guys can use this to thank me whenever you see fit. By NO means is this a requirement. Any contributions throughout the season will be greatly appreciated. Hopefully this idea allows us to keep everything free moving forward into future seasons. Alright. Enough of this boring shit. Let’s get into how we are going to dominate this game for a 5th year in a row!
Futures:
National Title Winners:
We are going with a four team portfolio this year. The first two tickets that we are going to ride with are our “title teams”. These teams will be Houston and Gonzaga. Additionally, we are going to take prices on two teams that I believe are criminally mispriced in the market. Those will be Florida and Xavier. The goal for the UF and Xavier plays will be to gain massive value on our tickets throughout the season and then look at hedging opportunities to make cash come tournament time. I will keep you posted later in the year when we get to that point!
Houston +1500 (DK):
Inject this attitude into my veins:
The Houston Cougars have one goal in mind. That is cutting the nets down on the final Monday of the season. They are my pick to do so. Make no mistake about it, this is the number 1 team in the country. No matter what the polls say. They are properly priced at some of the books out there, but Draft Kings hanging out a 15/1 number is a massive mistake. A lot of people picked Houston to slide in their first year of power conference basketball a season ago. Quite the opposite happened. Houston finished the season ranked 2nd in KenPom and ran away with the Big 12 regular season title. The injury bug bit this team down the stretch, but that is just another motivational tool that Sampson will use to fire his guys up for this year. The Cougars are returning a very hungry and veteran heavy roster. Jamal Shead will be a massive loss. No doubt. But the Cougars return every other contributor from their dominant run from a year ago. This includes the return from injury for big Jojo Tugler. Tugler is one of the best rim protectors in the country and he was sorely missed at the end of last season with J’Wan Roberts dealing with injuries of his own. With the addition of Milos Uzan (OU transfer) to replace Shead, I believe this Houston team is in great shape to finish as the #1 defense in the country. Leading scorer, LJ Cryer, is entering his 5th season of college basketball. This guy just wins. Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp will keep this Houston offense in the top tier of the game. The Cougars finished 19th in offensive efficiency a year ago, and I think they have a chance to improve on that this season with the addition of Uzan. Let’s get a little mud in our blood. Houston is our title pick.
Gonzaga +2000 (FanDuel):
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are national title good this season. I don’t have them rated quite as highly as Houston, but at 20/1 .. we will gladly add this to our portfolio. This team got hottttt at the end of last season. They finally started to gel with all of the new pieces that Few brought into the fold. Unfortunately, the Zags ran into Zach Edey in the Sweet 16 and their season came to an end prematurely. The momentum from that run is going to propel this team in to a big big season. The Gonzaga frontcourt is going to be stout this year. Ike, Huff and Gregg are all returning. I also love the potential of freshman, Ismaila Diagne. This is a 7’er with Grade A rim protection abilities. He is a player that has exceled at Real Madrid overseas and I can’t wait to see if Few puts his trust in him to provide defensive depth this year.
Mark Few will also add ISO scorers Khalif Battle (Arkansas) & Michael Ajayi (Pepperdine) into the rotation. They will fall in line in the backcourt behind veterans, Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman. Nembhard will be one of the best point guards in the country this season. I guarantee that. The sky is the limit for this team. Especially in a WCC with a weakened Saint Mary’s. I don’t see how Gonzaga could possibly fall below the 2 line. They have a very good chance at a 1 seed if they are able to handle business in the non-con. 20/1, gimmie.
Florida +6000 (DK &FD):
What is this number? Seriously. The books have this team priced with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State, BYU, etc. Come on now. I firmly believe this Gators team will be challenging for an SEC regular season title. This team is DEEEEEEP in the frontcourt. It is probably my favorite frontcourt in the country from a depth perspective. Alex Condon was big time for this team a season ago as a freshman. I am fully expecting him to compete to make an All-SEC team in the 24/25 season. The Gators are also returning Thomas Haugh. * I have updated this section to remove Handlogten. Florida has publicly stated that this will be a full redshirt year for him, but I am hearing otherwise from a source close to the situation. “Don’t be surprised if he suits up near the end of the SEC season depending on how the season goes”. * You would feel pretty good about entering a season with this Condon and Haugh, but Todd Golden has bolstered this position group even more in the portal. The Gators now have Sam Alexis (Chattanooga) and Rueben Chinyelu (Wazzou) in the fold. Alexis nearly averaged a double-double a season ago, and Chinyelu is having a monster preseason by all accounts. He shined in the most recent scrimmage against FIU. The Gators will be able to pair this fabulous frontcourt with one of the best backcourt trios in the country. Walter Clayton Jr. is that DUDE. I would have him in the Mark Sears and RJ Davis tier in regards to scoring the basketball. Here are his percentile ranks entering the 24/25 season per EvanMiya.com: Free Throws – 99th ; Scoring – 98th ; 3PT Shooting – 97th ; Offensive Impact – 94th ; Steals – 88th. We all remember his nuclear performance against Colorado in the tournament. There is more where that came from for this upcoming season. The Gators are also bringing in dynamic FAU transfer, Alijah Martin. He was a vital piece in the extended Cinderella run that we saw in Boca Raton. Interchanging with Martin and Will Richard between the 2 and the wing will be a great advantage for Golden. I also believe that all of these newcomers will help Golden get this defense to where he wants it to be. Last quick note: Keep your eye on reserve guard, Urban Klavzar. Klavzar was a late summer addition to the Gators roster. He is an international player that has played in many major European tournaments already. He will be an incredible depth piece as he gets accustomed to the college game.
Xavier +7500 (FanDuel):
This team is dangerous. Very, very dangerous. Jump on the bandwagon now. We are going to have a fun ride with this team. Sean Miller absolutely crushed the transfer portal. Especially in the backcourt. Ryan Conwell (Indiana State – 16.6 ppg), Marcus Foster (Furman – 17.0 ppg), and Dante Maddox Jr. (Toledo – 15.6 ppg) are bringing massive firepower to this Musketeer offense. These guys are also winning players. Foster and Maddox Jr. have made the NCAA Tournament as mid-major players, and Ryan Conwell was probably robbed of that opportunity by the committee a season ago. However, he took that personally and was dominant in a Sycamore run to the NIT Championship game. I believe that this group will gel really well together. They are also pairing up with returners Dayvion McKnight, Tre Green, and Dailyn Swain. McKnight was 2nd in the Big East a season ago in assist/turnover ratio. He is entering his 5th year of college basketball and will be a great facilitator for this group. Tre Green may get buried in this depth chart, but he is a very capable ballhandler if he gets called upon. I also believe that Dailyn Swain has the opportunity to take the jump into being a big time defender this season. That should help keep him on the floor a bit. Another transfer guard, Roddie Anderson III, will be able to help in the defensive department as well after coming from the Leon Rice school of defense. There is A LOT to be excited about with this group.
Heeeeee’sss Baaaaaacckkkk. The return of Zach Freemantle cannot be understated. This is one of my favorite bigs in the country. His ability to finish around the rim and stretch the floor at his size is so lethal in the college game. He looked healthy and ready to hit the ground running this season in X’s scrimmage against Dayton.
Freemantle’s partner in crime, Jerome Hunter, is also healthy and back from injury. Keeping these guys off of the injury report will be massive to the success of our ticket, but at 75/1 I am going to take the chance of Xavier having a monster season with a great coach at the helm.
Conference Title Tickets:
A-10: Dayton +350 (Draft Kings)
VCU is getting all of the preseason love in this conference. However, I just simply like the Flyers’ roster better. Also, Anthony Grant has a massive edge in the coaching department IMO. Give me the Flyers at this number.
ACC: Duke +135 (Fan Duel)
The Blue Devils will be the class of the conference this season. I expect the Tar Heels to take a slide back this year with the losses of Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. North Carolina will be the only challenge to the regular season title for Duke. These are the only two teams even ranked in the preseason AP poll from the ACC. A +140 ticket is not the most “fun” thing to have your money tied up in for months and months, but I believe that this will be a slam dunk hit for us.
American: No Play
Memphis more than likely wins the conference, but I want no part of my money being tied up with that group.
Big 10: Oregon +1500 (Draft Kings)
This may be perceived as a value play with Purdue being the favorite again in this conference, but I believe the Ducks have a legitimate chance to win this league as a debutant. The most important aspect surrounding this year’s Oregon team? A full bill of health. Dana Altman has been piecing things together the last few years due to terrible injury luck. The Ducks are seemingly ready to hit the ground running this season.
“The Oregon Ducks have a healthy roster for the first time in three seasons. Besides a minor injury with Georgetown transfer Supreme Cook (no timetable has been announced but it doesn’t seem serious), Oregon’s head coach Dana Altman believes the Ducks will be able to play at full strength and try to go back to a fast-paced offensive style.
“We are going to go back to the way we have traditionally played… This team will look or try to play the style as our teams in 2021 and before… I feel very comfortable with this group in playing the way we used to play.””
There will be a massive jump for Jackson Sheltad in his sophomore season. I think he could be one of the better two-way players in the country. Altman acquired some much needed backcourt help with Moss and Bamba through the portal. The reserves behind this group of three are a complete wild card, but I expect that group to eat massive minutes. The frontcourt of Oregon has a chance to be really special. Angel, Bittle, both Cook’s, Evans Jr, etc should all be major contributors. Every guy listed brings a little something different to the team. Interchanging these guys based on scheme from game to game is going to be a massive advantage. Dana Altman masterclass on the way.
Big 12: Houston +280 (Draft Kings)
The best team in the country as mentioned above. Gladly will take this play with Kansas being dubbed the favorite.
Big East: Xavier +1000 (Draft Kings)
Taking a shot with our Muskies as mentioned above. UConn (while still good AF) will be down from their recent standards. Maybe this will leave a door cracked for a Cinderella title winner.
SEC: Florida +2700 (Fan Duel)
This is a value play. The top of the SEC is stacked. It is going to be a war all year long. I do believe that Florida is closer to the top than where they are being priced though. Let’s take stab with the Gators here at 27/1.
WCC: No Play
If you have the wealth to lay -250 with Gonzaga and make it worthwhile + have that money sitting out there in the cloud for months .. then more power to you. It is just not worth it for me and I am not in the business of handing out -250 bets haha However, the Zags undoubtedly win this conference.
Wooden Award Future:
Tucker DeVries +18000 (Fan Duel):
You guys want to have a little fun? Let’s add a 180/1 ticket to our portfolio! (please bet responsibly)
Fan Duel. What are you doing here? For comparison, Draft Kings has DeVries priced at +8000. I gladly will jump on this value. This is the definition of a flier bet. This award will likely be given to a player of the likes of RJ Davis, Hunter Dickinson, Mark Sears, Cooper Flagg, etc. These players are incredible and will be on much better teams. Do I think that DeVries has a chance to statistically force himself into at least a conversation? Yes, I do.
DeVries has transferred to West Virginia this season to follow his father from Drake. I am fully expecting him to adapt to power conference basketball very quickly in Morgantown.
DeVries led the country in scoring against Quad 1 opponents a season ago entering the tournament. Yes, the opportunities were limited.. but it goes to show that he does not hide when the competition ramps up. Tucker was also the only player in Division 1 basketball last year to average 20 pts / 6 reb / 3 ast for the season (21.6/ 6.7/ 3.7). This was a major factor in my USBWA vote for Tucker to be an All-American. DeVries is also an underrated defender and recorded 1.6 steals per game. His contributions in all of these categories have continued to rise year over year during his time in Des Moines. I do not expect this to stop this season. Yes, he is transferring to a major conference program, but the surrounding cast is not something that will blow you away. He will concede some shots and opportunities to Javon Small, but I believe that Tucker’s usage (99th percentile per Evan Miya) will continue to be through the roof this season. If he records something close to 23/8/4/2 in the Big 12 this season, then I believe he will be firmly in the conversation for this award. At 180/1, just get us in the conversation.
Higher or Lower: Ken Pom Edition
This is the section that we will be paying attention to the most at the beginning of the year. The books tend to heavily marry their spreads with KenPom ratings to start the season until they start compiling on the court data for their algorithms. If you can correctly spot flawed ratings in the preseason KenPom, then you are in a good spot to attack early. Here are some teams that I expect to finish significantly higher or lower than their current KenPom preseason ratings.
Higher:
Gonzaga – Current ranking – 9th. I have them in my Top 5
Florida – Current ranking – 28th. I have them in my Top 20
Indiana – Current ranking – 39th. I have them in my Top 30
Kentucky – Current ranking -42nd. I have them in my Top 30
Louisville – Current ranking – 64th. I have them in my Top 40
High Point – Current Ranking – 108th. I have them in my Top 60 ** Biggest discrepancy I have from a higher perspective. One of my favorite mid-majors this season. This will be a tournament team out of the Big South.
Arkansas State – Current Ranking – 121st. I have them in my Top 90. I like the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt.
Lower:
Auburn – Current Ranking – 3rd. I have them outside of my Top 10
Texas – Current Ranking – 18th. I have them outside of my Top 30
Illinois – Current Ranking – 23rd. I have them outside of my Top 40
Ohio State – Current Ranking – 31st. I have them outside of my Top 40
VCU – Current Ranking – 41st. I have them outside of my Top 60
Boise State – Current Ranking – 45th. I have them outside of my Top 70
A big thank you if you have made it this far. This preview took some time and I hope you enjoy it. The season kicks off next Monday at Noon with our Cougs, and ends with a heavyweight fight between Gonzaga and Baylor. CAN’T. WAIT.
threepointsniper.com 