(photo: Towson University Athletics)
24/25 Season Record: 0-0
24/25 Best Bet Record: 0-0
11/4 Card:
Santa Clara -1.5 (3:00pm – YouTube)
Troy -4.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+)
Louisville -18.5 (7:00pm – ESPP+/ACC Extra)
Missouri +5 (8:00pm – ESPN+)
Arkansas State -5.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+)
Texas/Ohio State under 146.5 (10:00pm – TruTV)
Towson +11.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+)
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Santa Clara -1.5 : First blog of the year. Let’s get it! The Broncos open the season at the Pentagon against Saint Louis as a part of the Field of 68 Showcase. This spread is telling, right?
The “Billi Ball” hysteria is alive and well in Saint Louis. The Billikens were able to persuade Josh Shertz to make the leap from Indiana State to be their next head coach. Shertz has gained tons of fans from around the country with his high powered mid-major offense over the last few seasons. He was also able to bring “Cream Abdul Jabar” (Robbie Avila) and Isaiah Swope with him via the transfer portal. This will be a very popular team in the market from the general public to start the year. Yet, Saint Louis finds themselves as underdogs in their opener. Let’s get into why.
Roster continuity at the mid-major level is something that you really have to pay attention to during this age of the transfer portal. Especially when you know that the group is led by an excellent coach. That is the case here with Herb Sendek. The Broncos are returning 5 out of their top 6 scorers from a season ago. In addition, this group also made up their top three rebounders and assisters. Fun fact about this Broncos group that people forget? They beat THREE tournament teams from a season ago in the non-con. Oregon, Washington State & Duquesne. Santa Clara was also pretty damn good down the stretch in conference play and finished 10-6 in the WCC before ending their season in the conference tournament semifinals to Saint Mary’s. I am trusting that this team will be ready to go again in the non-con and that their continuity gives them the edge in this matchup against a team that has changed so much. Get us going early, Broncos!
Side Note: Robbie Avila will be active for this game, but he has just returned to practice/exhibition play in the last week or so after suffering a “significant lateral ankle sprain”. I am not sure if this will be a factor or not, but something to note.
Score Prediction: Santa Clara 79 – Saint Louis 74
Troy -4.5 : The MAC/Sun Belt challenge is something special. This was one that I had my eye on for the majority of the offseason. Toledo has been a mainstay in the upper echelon of mid-major programs over the past 4 seasons. I am here to say that this will be a *very* down year by their recent standards. This roster is not appealing to me at all. The Rockets will not survive losing Maddox Jr, Moss and Cochran to the portal. The ballhandling and playmaking is a huge concern for me. This leads us into my favorite matchup edge here in this fixture. The Trojans are going to be able to heat this team up without question. Troy was 22nd in the country in forcing turnovers a season ago & the majority of the key defenders are back for the 24/25 season. Troy is favored in this matchup for good reason. This program also has two additional feathers in their cap that we look for. The Trojans were 13th in the country in free throw rate, and 27th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Keep your eye on Myles Rigsby. This was a freshman that I mentioned a ton a season ago. I believe we were one of the first outlets to really take notice of how special he is at this mid-major level. Rigbsy has a chance to be elite as a two-way player this season, and he will be the best player on the court tomorrow.
Score Prediction: Troy 80 – Toledo 72
Louisville -18.5 : Pat Kelsey, we are coming with you. Flush whatever memories you have of this Cardinals program in recent memory. I have seen firsthand in Charleston just how quickly Pat Kelsey can get things rolling.
This Louisville roster is just insane. I see offensive & defensive balance at every single level. It will be interesting to see how the minutes are distributed early in this season, but simply based on my opinion .. this team could go 12 deep. Not even joking. Morehead State’s roster is on the other end of the spectrum. Riley Minix is off to the Spurs organization, and the Eagles have also lost their other 4 top scorers from a season ago. The transfer portal was not kind to this team. Even with their success from a season ago, the OVC media took notice of this depleted roster and ranked the Eagles 5th in the preseason OVC poll.
We know that a Pat Kelsey team can hit the gas pedal. This should be a Top 20 offense in the country. The exhibitions have also provided examples that this defense could gel quicker than expected.
I am confident in laying this big of a number in the opener with Louisville due to those reasons.
Score Prediction: Louisville 86 – Morehead State 62
Missouri +5 : Boy, oh boy do I love this one. Missouri will win this game outright. This is my Best Bet.
I have the Missouri Tigers in the “Louisville tier” of a successful rebuild via the transfer portal. This team has MAJOR impact pieces to compete in the SEC this season; coming off of a year where they picked up ZERO conference wins! Dennis Gates was finally the coach that was able to pry Marques Warrick out of Northern Kentucky. He was ready for power conference basketball years ago. His elite ISO scoring will be a much needed addition to the Tigers. I also love what they are getting on the glass & defensively with transfers Mark Mitchell and Josh Gray. These guys are DUDES when attacking for rebounds. Mizzou really had no muscle in the paint a season ago and that was probably the biggest detriment to their team. The Tigers ranked 356th (!!!) in defensive rebounding. They were also 283rd in defending shots attacking the rim per Shot Quality.
Tony Perkins and Jacob Crews will also be monster impact transfers for this team as well. Crews will be relied upon to rebound from the wing, and Perkins will be the lockdown defender. In addition, these guys obviously bring a needed punch offensively to this team. I am excited to see Crews and Caleb Grill let it fly from three this season. Grill is returning from injury this season and already looks as good as he ever has from behind the arc.
I don’t love the roster construction from Penny at Memphis this season. I watched the entirety of their exhibition against UNC and I did not come away impressed at all. I see the ball “sticking” quite often in the flow of the offense. I also see a heavy dose of turnovers. Tony Perkins will be feasting on this for Mizzou. Memphis is also dealing with the same old shit that we are accustomed to. NIL drama, rumors of guys unenrolling and hitting the portal, etc. They should not be laying 5, even in a true home game, to this revamped Mizzou squad. Missouri is the better team and has the better coach. Tigers outright.
Not only is this a Best Bet for me, but this is also a play for Max Barr (@MaxBarrCBB). Max is an SEC-centric college basketball guru. I trust him heavily when it comes to this league, so it was great to see that we are on the same page. Here are his thoughts on the matchup!
“REVENGE. Memphis beat Missouri 70-55 in Columbia last year. Combine that with Missouri going winless in SEC play and you best believe Dennis Gates has been waiting for this one. You’ll be hard pressed to find a coach more hungry for a win than Gates.
DEPTH. Rare scenario where one teams’ rotation might be bigger than the oppositions’ available roster. Missouri is two deep, in some places three deep, at every position. Dain Dainja will cause defenses issues this year but not Missouri. Mizzou has seven players 6’8 or taller (Josh Gray 7’ 265lb, Peyton Marshall 7’ 300lb). Both size & depth heavily in favor of MIZ.”
Score Prediction: Mizzou 79 – Memphis 72
Arkansas State -5.5 : For the sake of time, I am not going to dive deep into this one. The reason why? This is almost an identical handicap to the Troy play. I have belief in a Sun Belt team with quality roster continuity to take down a MAC team that has been completely depleted from their recent success.
Arkansas State is a team that I believe heavily in. They were featured in my preseason blog as one of the teams I expect to finish way higher than their current KenPom preseason rating. I expect the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt this year. Lastly, this was a very hard place to play a season ago. Bryan Hodgson has this fan base fired up. It should be a great opening day atmosphere to help our handicap.
Score Prediction: Arkansas State 77 – Akron 68
Texas/Ohio State under 146.5 : I don’t like to take a ton of totals in the first week of the season because the hard metrics really drive my angles on them. However, I believe this has a real chance to be a low scoring game based on roster construction.
I don’t see this being a very good year for either program quite frankly. Where is the offensive identity going to come from for Texas? Kaluma, Pope and Mark are all ball dominant players in my opinion. I do not see sexy ball movement coming from this team. It will be a lot of ISO ball. I think that factor lends itself to a struggle out of the gates. I have similar worries about the Ohio State offense. Meechie Johnson is the epitome of a ball dominant guard. He was a major reason why South Carolina’s tempo was so low a season ago. Bruce Thornton already tries to dribble the ball through the ground, so I think this offense could struggle to find cohesion as well. Don’t get me wrong, Thornton is an excellent facilitator. I am not taking away anything from that. But he does appreciate a dribble haha.
Both teams also have really good defenders at their disposal. Shedrick and Weaver are excellent in that department for the Longhorns. We are also hearing that Tre Johnson could quickly develop into a great defender.
Aaron Bradshaw and Sean Stewart should turn into excellent defenders for the Buckeyes after getting a minutes boost from their previous situations. I am smelling an under from a mile away on this one. Hopefully, we don’t get a first game of the season boost in adrenaline and send this pace over where we need it to be!
Score Prediction: Texas 71 – Ohio State 69
Towson +11.5 : This was dangerously close to a Best Bet. The Tigers are going to be very competitive in this game. Outside shot at the upset.
Towson is one of the better mid-major programs over the past few years that you haven’t heard about. They have been overshadowed by Pat Kelsey at CofC in the CAA, but this is a program that is coming off of three straight 20 win seasons. The Tigers are returning every contributor from a season ago outside of Charles Thompson Jr. They believe they had addressed his departure with Abdou Samb via the portal. I am excited to see this team run it back and I believe they have a serious chance to go dancing out of the CAA.
I am very familiar with Towson due to my ties with the Charleston program. Pat Kelsey thinks as highly of Pat Skerry as any coach in America. It is warranted. This team FIGHTS. The Tigers were 2nd (!!!) in the country in offensive rebounding percentage a season ago. They are physical for 40 minutes. That is something that I frankly saw this current edition of Saint Mary’s struggle with a season ago. Especially when Joshua Jefferson went down. With Jefferson transferring out to Iowa State and seemingly nobody on the roster to replace that role, I see the physicality of Towson being a huge advantage.
The Saint Mary’s offense is going to struggle mightily this season with the loss of Aidan Mahaney to UConn. His departure (in addition to Jefferson’s) was not addressed in the transfer portal. This is starting to feel like a Tony Bennett situation in Charlottesville. It is a slower burn in the WCC because Randy is such a good coach, but ignoring the portal is just not something that you can do in this day and age.
Saint Mary’s likely squeaks this one out, but this is a disaster opening day matchup for the Gaels.
Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 66 – Towson 61
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 