(photo: UC Davis Athletics)
24/25 Season Record: 4-3 (BB: 0-1)
11/5 Card:
Cal Poly 1H under 30.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel)
San Francisco 1H -12 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Ty Johnson over 20.5 points (10:00pm – BTN) (FanDuel)
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Cal Poly 1H under 30.5 : I am in lockstep with the preseason KenPom rating on this Mustangs squad. They have a very solid chance of finishing as a bottom 10 team in Division 1 basketball this year. Cal Poly really only had three guys that could score with any kind of consistency a year ago. With Kobe Sanders and Quentin Jones leaving the program, that only leaves Jarred Hyder. Hyder shot 32.5% from the field a year ago. Woof. This offense is going to be putrid. There was no help in this department via the portal. Unless there are several diamonds in the rough from the freshman ranks, I do not see a competent basketball team.
I also like the potential of the Dons defense this year. KenPom has San Francisco in the Top 100 in preseason defensive rating, and I think they could push to get even closer to a Top 75 group. This is a very tall and lengthy group. Especially with the addition of Carlton Linguard Jr. from UTSA. Another 7’er to add to the mix.
The Mustangs ranked 356th out of 362 teams in the country a season ago in 1H points per game. San Francisco ranked 39th in opponent 1H points per game. I am excited to attack this angle tonight. This is my Best Bet.
San Francisco 1H -12: All of the information above leads me to believe that this is a good play as well. The Dons will get a ton of 2nd chance looks early on in this game. The size and physicality is a major edge. Marcus Williams and Malik Thomas are also returning in the backcourt. These guys can score the rock. Give me the Dons early and quick in this one.
Score Prediction: 1H San Francisco 42 – Cal Poly 27
Ty Johnson over 20.5 points : Ty Johnson will be challenging for the Division 1 scoring title this season. I would not be stunned to see him in the 18-19 FGA per game range. Jim Les will green light it. Johnson shared the backcourt with Eli Pepper (baller) for the Aggies squad over the last few seasons. They averaged 29.1 FGA between the two of them a season ago. Pepper has graduated and this leaves Johnson will full control of this offense.
Ty flipped the switch late in the year to turn into an even more prolific scorer than he was previously. Here were his averages over the last 10 games:
- 20.4 ppg
- 16.7 FGA per game
- 6.2 FTA per game (99th percentile on free throw attempts per 40 minutes in each of his two seasons at UC Davis)
I am a huge fan of the player, and I am an even bigger fan of what I think his usage will be tonight. Danny Sprinkle played a faster tempo last year at Utah State when he was able to acquire more talent. I think we see another step forward in the tempo department this year at Washington. I see the Huskies controlling the tempo and that should lead to more opportunities for Johnson. Lastly, Johnson only averaged 2.3 fouls per game a season ago. Should have a great chance at 35ish minutes.
Score Prediction: Ty Johnson – 25 points
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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