(photo: Evan Harris – Old Gold & Black)
24/25 Season Record: 8-5 (BB: 1-2)
11/7 Card:
NC A&T/Wake Forest over 148 (7:00pm – ESPN+/ACC Extra) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night. Make sure to have the notifications on so you don’t miss early adds)
Charleston Southern +8 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
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NC A&T/Wake Forest over 148 : We sniped this one. Pun very intended. This total has steamed all the way to 154 at Draft Kings at the time that I am writing this post. Bonkers. I loved this bet before the steam, so let’s break this one down.
This is going to be an absolute feast for the Wake Forest offense. The box score didn’t look great against Coppin, but thankfully we have Shot Quality as a resource.
Wake Forest was able to reach a SQ score of 81.6 points in that game. Hunter Sallis should already be a pro. Sallis and Steve Forbes have a great relationship and that played a major part in his return (along with a nice pay bump from the NIL collective). Here is a great thread on Twitter from Ethan Alexander showing his impact in night one:
The North Carolina A&T defense should be really (really) bad this season. KenPom is projected 307th in the country and I think that is about right. There is a major weakness in this team that Wake Forest is built to attack. Transition defense. The Aggies were 330th in the country in defending in transition per Shot Quality. Allowing 1.27 SQ PPP. That is an area where Sallis & Hildreth can really attack. They are both great at finishing at the rim and drawing fouls. The Aggies were also 356th in defending shots at the rim & 347th in defensive rebounding. It will be a huge night for Biliew, Spillers and Reid in the paint. This Demon Deacons are drooling for this matchup.
North Carolina A&T is capable of putting the ball in the net. Landon Glasper is very inefficient as a volume shooter, but I like his chances to reach a number near his 20.9 ppg average a year ago in what will be a blowout. The Aggies are also excited in what they have with Jahnathan Lamothe. Lamonthe is a Maryland transfer and scored 27 points in their opener against a non-D1 opponent.
Pace and poor defense will get Wake Forest into the 90’s tonight. Glasper and the Aggies will take care of the rest. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 91 – NC A&T 63
Charleston Southern +8 : Those who have been riding my plays for a while might remember this matchup from last season. It was also on the opening Thursday of the year. I was boots on the ground. Literally. Shout out Buccaneer Fieldhouse. We gained tremendous CLV on the Bucs before the tip and were leading at the half. Everything was going great!
And then..
Chaz Lanier happened. Lanier was a guy that averaged 4.7 ppg in 19 minutes a game as a junior the season prior. He was not on the radar of anyone, including myself. We got introduced that night. He exploded for 30 points and carried the Ospreys to an outright victory. Lanier went on to average nearly 20 ppg and transferred to Tennessee in the offseason. Without Lanier, I think Charleston Southern has a chance for revenge here.
The two other best players on the court that night are returners for Charleston Southern. Taje’ Kelly and RJ Johnson are phenomenal players at this level of college basketball. Lamar Oden Jr. was also an incredible portal add for the Bucs. He is about as high of a caliber player as a program like this can get. Lamar was a former starter and Drexel and played in some high level games in the Colonial. The size and physicality of Kelley and Oden Jr. will be a problem for UNF. Kelly exposed them in inside of the arc a season ago. Charleston Southern suffered an opening night loss to Clemson, but scored 1.06 PPP against what should be a top tier defense. I think the Bucs will find some offensive success tonight.
North Florida is getting too much love in the market for the opening night upset win over South Carolina. The Gamecocks were a tournament team a season ago, but that roster just does not have the same punch without Meechie Johnson and Ta’Lon Cooper. The Ospreys live and die by the three. We know that. If they go scorched earth from distance tonight, we likely lose. However, I like what Charleston brings in the perimeter defending department. They only allowed opponents to shoot 31% from distance a season ago. The Bucs were also 10th in the country in opponent contested three point shooting percentage per Shot Quality. I like this edge.
Once this number reached 8, it was a pirates life for me. Give me the Buccaneers and the points.
Score Prediction: North Florida 75 – Charleston Southern 71
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 