(photo: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)
24/25 Season Record: 12-13
11/12 Card:
Michigan State/Kansas under 150.5 (6:30pm – ESPN) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Purdue Fort Wayne -12.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
North Carolina Central +14.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
FAU +5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Georgia -10 (7:00pm – ESPN+/SECN+) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Kentucky +6.5 (9:00pm – ESPN) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Jackson Shelstad over 10.5 points (11:00pm – BTN) (FanDuel)
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Michigan State/Kansas under 150.5 : A lot of people will base their opinion on this total from the high scoring affair between KU and UNC on Friday. I see this pace playing a lot slower than most people think. Kansas tried at times at the beginning of the North Carolina game to slow the tempo down, but Carolina wouldn’t bite. It was conducive for Kansas to keep their foot on the gas when they saw how poorly UNC was getting back in transition. It will be a different story today. Why? I think Michigan State holds the key to that answer.
Sparty comes into this matchup ranked 246th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. I expect them to play even slower as the competition ramps up. The Spartans finished the year 309th in pace a season ago & 306th the season prior. It has always been a methodical offensive approach under Izzo, but reaching the 300’s in back to back seasons is definitely something to take note of. I also just simply love their defense. KenPom has the Spartans ranked 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and I think that is right on par where they will end up by season’s end. Michigan State has great on-ball pressure in the backcourt, and have significant length inside to protect the rim. The average height of the Spartans is 38th in the country per KenPom, and I am sure they would be even higher in the ranks if wingspans were included. The points per possession that Kansas will score tonight will dramatically drop from what they were able to get against the Tar Heels. I also think Michigan State will find it tough to score in their first ramp up in competition. Pair that with fewer possessions … and I think we are in line for an under, folks.
Score Prediction: Kansas 75 – Michigan State 70
Purdue Fort Wayne -12.5 : Our Mastodons!!! Those that were here with us last year will remember. We had a great late season run of betting Purdue Fort Wayne. The large majority of the roster is back this season. The Mastodons rank 3rd in minutes continuity from a season ago. I was tempted to pull the trigger in their last game on Friday against UCF. I am upset that I didn’t. PFW covered the spread with ease, and actually held a 64-60 lead late in that ball game.
Bethune Cookman’s defense is bad. Really bad. I expect a big night from the Mastodon offense, and that is why I think they can cover this hefty number. The Wildcats had a very nice result last time out. I could not believe the score when I was checking the box scores. Thankfully, Shot Quality provided us with the data to show that it was a lot of smoke and mirrors.
The Mastodons win this one going away.
Score Prediction: Purdue Fort Wayne 84 – Bethune Cookman 68
North Carolina Central +14.5 : This looks like the lone game of the 6 early adds that we are not going to gain CLV on. From the way this year has started in that regard … is it such a bad thing?
We bet on NCCU in their most recent outing. Gardner Webb shot over 70% for the entire game. I am not even remotely joking. Could the Eagles defense have been better? Yes. Did they receive some of the worst defensive shot luck that we will see this season? Also, yes.
1.47 PPS is not of this planet. At least we know we will not be up against that today. NCCU actually showed a ton of fight to be dealing with that. They won the offensive rebounding battle, the turnover battle (22 to 10), had more assists, equaled in free throws, etc. Only losing by 6 points while getting 1.47 PPS dropped on your head is impressive.
High Point is the real deal. They were in my preseason blog as my favorite mid-major. However, I have seen a little bit of cracks in the defensive ability to start. I am sure part of that is coming from playing with big leads against bottom 50 teams in the country, but I think that leaves NCCU with a great chance to keep this final within the number. The Eagles can score. Give us the points.
Score Prediction: High Point 85 – NCCU 75
FAU +5.5 : All of us that are in deep in the weeds of the CBB realm know exactly what type of impact that John Jakus has had on the rise of the Baylor program. The Bears would not be where they are today (with a ring) without Jakus. Scott Drew will tell you that. It is so awesome to see that he has the Owls flying out of the gate with a complete roster overhaul upon his arrival. I watched a large chunk of their game on opening night because I was interested to see how both programs would handle their star coaches and players leaving. Boy, did I find out in a hurry. FAU covered a 6.5 point spread with a 33 point ass kicking of Indiana State. Shot Quality even had it graded as an 18 point win with their data. I was very impressed. This team has a ton of cohesion and that is evident in this post-game video following that win:
I do not think I am alone on an island in thinking that FAU has the better roster and coach in this matchup. Maybe I am. If so, leave me with a six pack of Edmunds Oast & a way to stream this game and I will be just fine. Let’s grab the points here. I think there is a little too much of the opening night win over A&M baked into this line for UCF. Should be a fun and close game. FAU has a great shot to win outright IMO. Go Owls.
Score Prediction: FAU 77 – UCF 75
Georgia -10 : This was my favorite play of the day. The market agrees. This is pushing all of the way to -15.5 at some spots. We sniped this one early and it is paying off!
UNF has ran very lucky this season. You will get that from a team that shoots as many threes as they do. This was very evident in their win over Charleston Southern when we had the Bucs at +8.
The Ospreys followed that up on Sunday with another 1.28 PPP day against Georgia Tech to upset the Yellow Jackets. The regression to the mean will be coming soon. I am not buying this 3-0 start, and I was eager to get to the ticket window early to try to take advantage of that. I believe we did.
What the hell is North Florida going to do with Asa Newell?
The Ospreys rank 294th in the country in height per KenPom. Newell has already hit the ground running in the college game and should be able to have his way offensively, defensively, and on the glass in this one. I really like the 1-2 punch of Newell and RJ Godfrey in the post long term when attacking the glass. Godfrey came over from Clemson and is instantly fitting right in averaging 8.5 rebounds per game. I am projecting many second chance opportunities for these two.
The new look Georgia backcourt is not afraid to let it fly from distance. They have 52 three point attempts through two games. Newcomer, Dakota Leffew, has already connected on 9 triples.
If they cancel out, or outperform, North Florida from distance, then this one will be a snoozer. (in a good way!)
UNF played at Georgia Tech on Sunday, so this is an extended road trip. I expect their good fortune to run out tonight. Dawgs by close to 20. You know what, I am just going to do it. Feeling myself. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Georgia 88 – North Florida 70
Kentucky +6.5 : The Duke hype is a bit out of control at the moment. I love their pieces & their potential for long term success this season. However, I am pretty adamant in stating that Duke should not be favored to win a neutral site game over UK by close to 7 points this early in the season.
Kentucky is deep. Very deep. The Wildcats have a 10 man rotation (we will see how much that tightens up tonight) that has 7 guys averaging double figures through their first two games. The competition has been really bad, but scoring 100+ points in consecutive games to start a year is definitely something to pay attention to.
There is a little bit of everything in this roster makeup. Kobe Brea is hands down the best shooter in the country. Analytics (above) and eye test will both tell you that. Lamont Butler is a seasoned point guard with national title game experience. Amari Williams is blossoming into one of the best rebounders in the country after many successful seasons at the mid-major level. Jaxson Robinson and Otega Oweah are great scorers. Andrew Carr is one of the better stretch 4’s in the country. Brandon Garrison, Butler, Oweh, etc are all excellent defenders. The list goes on and on. I am just in love with the roster makeup of veterans. That will play a major factor tonight when Duke is relying on their youth to carry the scoring burden.
This isn’t a normal sleepy neutral site game that you get earlier in the year. This is in Atlanta. A major travel spot for BBN and the Blue Devil fans. I was at the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta a season ago. I saw what BBN is made up of in that area. It will be a wild atmosphere. I will side with the veterans getting the points here. This is a true toss up for me.
Score Prediction: Duke 81 – Kentucky 80
Jackson Shelstad (Oregon) over 10.5 points : Love this spot for Jackson tonight. Shelstad cleared this number in 10 out of his last 13 games last season. We are getting a great number here due to him not reaching 10 points in each of his first two games to start the year. I expect his usage to go up tonight. He will have his way with the Pilots defense. Portland currently ranks 349th in KenPom’s defensive rating after giving up 94 points to a weakened UCSB roster. Not overthinking this one. Shelstad gets his season going in a big way tonight.
Score Prediction: Jackson Shelstad – 17 points
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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