(photo: X/(@derikqueen1))
24/25 Season Record: 22-17
11/15 Card:
Florida -5 (6:00pm – ACC Network) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
TCU/Michigan over 150.5 (6:00pm – FS1) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
UNCW/SC Upstate under 157 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Elon +5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Penn State -5.5 (7:30pm – Peacock) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Maryland -1.5 (8:00pm – FS1) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Iowa -4 (8:30pm – BTN) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
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Florida -5 : Florida’s offense is the key in this matchup today. The focus for us will be the three point line. Florida State is 300th in the country to start the year in 3PT rate allowed. They are also 343rd in the country in open three rate allowed per Shot Quality. The Gators are ready to chomp on that (yikes, I can do better than that). Florida comes into this game ranked 23rd in 3PT efficiency. Walter Clayton Jr. is going to have a field day creating for himself and his teammates in this one.
Clayton Jr., Richard and Martin have all cleared 15 three point attempts through the first three games this year. I expect them to connect on many of them tonight. The Seminoles have only made 13 threes through 3 games. Jamir Watkins is the only player on the roster scoring in double figures.
FSU will try to win games with ISO scoring from Watkins + interior domination with length. Florida will be able to compete with Florida State in the interior. The Gators come into this game ranked 16th in offensive rebounding percentage per Shot Quality. Florida will be able to flex their strength better than the Seminoles will with theirs. I feel comfortable laying this number in a rivalry road game.
Score Prediction: Florida 82 – FSU 73
TCU/Michigan over 150.5 : We are receiving some nice CLV on this number. Jamie Dixon and Dusty May are going to let these guys fly. Pace is the most important factor in this play for me. Dixon changed his entire offensive philosophy over the last few years. The Horned Frogs have finished 48th and 64th in adjusted tempo the last two seasons. This comes after Dixon coach teams finished 230th or higher for 11 out of the previous 13 seasons. Frankie Collins (revenge game) was trained to run during the last few seasons with Bobby Hurley. He is already fitting in at the point & gelling with the Dixon offense. I expect him to keep his foot on the gas in this one.
Dusty May will definitely welcome tempo & he has the firepower to do so. The Wolverines have connected on 20 threes in their first two games. Tre Donaldson is who Dusty May grabbed in the portal to be his point guard. It is early, but this appears to have been a great find. He is pushing tempo and producing at an efficient level. I like the long term offensive future of this team if they can get their backcourt reserves up to speed quickly.
Pace, points, pleasure. Give us the over.
Score Prediction: Michigan 81 – TCU 75
UNCW/SC Upstate under 157 : The PPG and PPGA averages are gaudy with these two teams. UNCW is averaging 117.5 ppg and allowing 87.5. Upstate is scoring 80.8 and allowing 86.3. Yet, we see a total under 160. It is for good reason. Another pace play here.
UNCW will control this game. There is a decisive coaching edge in favor of the Seahawks with Takayo Siddle going against a debutant D1 HC. I expect Siddle to get the Seahawks settled back into the pace that he is comfortable playing in this game. Over the last three seasons UNCW has finished 236rd, 281st, and 306th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. As you can see, the offense is moving slower & slower as the years go by under Siddle. He has a methodical approach with intricate sets that is very effective against mid-major opposition. He was able to finish 65th in KenPom’s adjusted offense even with that tempo number a season ago. UNCW doesn’t need to run to get what they want, and I expect Siddle to slow this game down to get Upstate out of rhythm. I really like this play. Give us the under.
Score Prediction: UNCW 79 – Upstate 68
Elon +5 : Guys, I think this Elon team is sneaky good. Having a 2H lead against UNC is probably the peak of their ceiling … but this team has some real pieces. The Simpkins twins are DAWGS. They play with the Brooklyn toughness that we are used to seeing from NYC guards, and they do so many little things right. Let’s take advantage of backing these guys before the rest of the world finds out. Nick Dorn is also an extremely versatile player for a program of this caliber. He is a 6’7 wing that has knocked down 7 triples through the first two games. That is not a fluke. He averaged 2 makes per game as a freshman last season while shooting 36.4%. To cap it off, the Phoenix also have a 7’4 monster. Matthew Van Komen is a big man who has spent time at both Utah and Saint Mary’s. He is back from numerous injuries and already making a massive impact defensively and on the glass.
Gardner-Webb is not good. Shot Quality gave them a predicted 6% chance to win the only game they have won this season based on the SQ Score. I think Elon wins this game outright. Will add a little sprinkle on the ML.
Score Prediction: Elon 73 – Gardner-Webb 71
Penn State -5.5 : Yanic Konan Niederhauser. It is going to be very hard, but remember the name.
This 7’er is flourishing under Mike Rhoades. I think that he is going to be a massive issue for the Hokies on the glass. Mylyjael Poteat is getting the biggest minutes boost of his carrier this year for VT, but it is not translating to any more success in the rebounding department. That is going to be a major issue for Mike Young and the Hokies this season. They are very undersized outside of Poteat and will struggle to compete on the glass against major conference opponents.
The Nittany Lions are also stroking it from distance. 32 makes in three games. Virginia Tech’s greatest strength is getting open three point looks in the Mike Young offense. If Penn State is able to match (or beat) the Hokies in that department… this one could get ugly.
This is a neutral site game in Baltimore. No edge for either fan base. I expect Penn State to handle business. Comfortable laying the points here.
Score Prediction: Penn State 80 – Virginia Tech 69
Maryland -1.5 : This is my favorite play of the night. A freshman will be the key.
Marquette is getting absolutely worn out in the post to start this season. The eye test is confirmed by Shot Quality data:
The graphic above is specifically for shots attacking the rim. Ben Gold is atrocious defensively & Derik Queen is licking his chops at this matchup. It is not often that you see personal “call outs” in the college game, but Queen did not shy away from speaking his mind on the matchup with Gold tonight. It was something along the lines of “he only wants to shoot”. Queen is not wrong. This is a very juicy matchup for Queen and Julian Reese. Marquette definitely has the backcourt edge, but Maryland has closed the gap on that a bit this year. Ja’Kobie Gillespie and Selton Miguel were big time contributors on good teams and have seamlessly transitioned into this Terrapin offense. It is also great to see Rodney Rice flourishing. He was a highly touted recruit that could never find his footing at Virginia Tech. Rice is averaging 16.7 ppg out of the gate & looks to be having a breakout season.
I believe that Maryland is a guarantee to win both the rebounding & points in the paint categories. The Terps have enough in the backcourt to take away some of the Marquette advantage there. That is enough for me to back them in this fiery home spot. College Park will be rocking. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Maryland 79 – Marquette 70
Iowa -4 : The homecoming for Brock Harding and Owen Freeman.
Iowa’s matchup tonight with Washington State is being played in Moline, IL. This is where the Hawkeyes star center and point guard grew up. Very cool situation. Obviously, these two are familiar with this arena and will feel more than at home with tons of family and friends in attendance. This was only just a tiny tiny sliver of my handicap though. The advantage for the Hawkeyes goes way beyond where the game is being played.
David Riley has instantly brought his EWU approach to Wazzou. It is going to be awesome to see what he can do with a step-up in programs. This offense is off of the charts already against mid-major competition. However, this is going to play right into the hands of Fran McCaffery. We have seen this song and dance over the years. The way to beat Iowa is to slow them down and get their shooters out of rhythm. When you run with these guys, you are more than likely going to lose. Especially when the Hawkeyes shooting is in good form. Update: it is in VERY good form. Iowa has connected on 41 (fourty one!!) threes through the first 3 games of this season. The pace of this game is going to lead to many open looks in transition. This will be a treat for all of you three point snipers out there.
The dominance of Owen Freeman cannot be understated as well. This is one of the best big men in the country. Wazzou has some length in the frontcourt, but I believe they will struggle with the versatility of Freeman. I think he nears a 20 & 10 performance in his homecoming.
The Hawkeyes simply outscore the Cougars tonight. We will lay the points!
Score Prediction: Iowa 89 – Washington State 82
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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