(photo: Drew Barton)
24/25 Season Record: 32-28
11/18 Card:
North Alabama +29.5 (9:00pm – SEC Network) (Can get this line pretty much everywhere)
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North Alabama +29.5 : Just one play today. Plug your nose.
I have been pretty spot on with my preseason blog. It is VERY early, but everything seems to be trending just as I predicted. The one exception is Auburn. I had them outside of my preseason Top 10. That was foolish & I was wrong. They are the real deal & a lock inside of the Top 10 teams in the country. Today’s play is not a “fade” due to my preseason thoughts. This is a play in support of my thoughts of North Alabama. Just wanted to get that out of the way before breaking this one down.
The opening line was justified for this matchup. Auburn has been kicking the shit out of inferior opponents. However, the steam that the public has pushed this number to has turned this into a punch-back scenario for me. 29.5 is simply way too high. KenPom is projecting a 25 point win. That is more in my line of thinking. The North Alabama offense is better than Kent State and Vermont’s at this point in the season. You can yell at me all that you want. That is just a fact. This fact is supported by KenPom offensive efficiency ratings & Shot Quality data as well. Those teams are very likely reach a higher ceiling later than UNA, but as of November 18th – that is not the case. North Alabama is getting 7 full points more than Kent State. That doesn’t make sense to me.
This profile of North Alabama’s offense from Shot Quality (pictured above) is important to take note of. These are key areas that will keep you competitive *at times* against a team where the talent gap is a massive disadvantage. Make your threes. Don’t turn the ball over. Take advantage of the Auburn turnovers. That should be enough to keep us under 30.
Jacari Lane is an absolute burner.
Lane’s 32 points led the Lions back from a 20 point deficit last time out to force OT (we love that fight in our dog) against Samford & Bucky Ball. He has improved on his scoring totals every year & seems to be having a breakout season. Having a guard like this when you are getting close to 30 points as an underdog is a necessity. Especially with the opportunity for late buckets against the Auburn reserves. We will need a big scoring night from Jacari to get us home. Lane grew up in Alabama so I am sure this is one he has been looking forward to for quite some time.
The value in this spread has pushed into Best Bet category for me. As scary as it is with this game being played in The Jungle … this is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Auburn 88 – North Alabama 64
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 