(photo: University of Dayton Athletics)
24/25 Season Record: 34-31
11/20 Card (all given on Twitter/X) :
- Purdue Fort Wayne +16.5
- Elon +1.5
- Dayton -16
- Southern Miss +7
- Little Rock +13.5
- UCLA 1H -14.5
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Purdue Fort Wayne +16.5 : Back again with our Mastodons! This is a good basketball team. I am excited to back them again tonight.
It was easy for us to jump on Penn State the other night against Virginia Tech. That opening line made zero sense and the Nittany Lions ran away with that one immediately. No matter what number you got, you covered with Penn State. It is going to be a long year for the Hokies. Purdue Fort Wayne presents a bigger challenge at this point in the season than Virginia Tech does. As crazy as that sounds.. it’s true. Penn State’s bludgeoning of bad opponents to start the year has gifted us a +16.5 number today. The KenPom ratings of the teams Penn State has faced outside of Virginia Tech are 312th, 326th, & 338th. This is not a fade of Penn State. It is just taking advantage of a market set by blowouts of inferior teams to PFW.
The Mastodons have climbed all of the way to 64th in the adjusted Shot Quality rating. They have done this with superb defense to compliment the offense that we are used to seeing from this group. PFW is only allowing 0.97 Shot Quality PPP while scoring 1.13. The Mastodons are also 12th in the country in FT % & 42nd in turnover rate. Love these characteristics in a dog getting this many points. This dog is gonna bark.
Score Prediction: Penn State 85 – Purdue Fort Wayne 75
Elon +1.5 : This line has flipped in the market. The Phoenix are now a 1.5 point favorite. I have them as a 3 point favorite in this game, so there is still some value left if you are just getting your wager in.
The market is not catching up to the offensive ability of this team. The Simpkins twins continue to flourish in this Billy Taylor system. The Brooklyn two-way guards bring a tenacity that you just love to have when backing a team. The pieces around them are fantastic as well. Nick Dorn is an extremely versatile 6’7 wing at the mid-major level.
Dorn is shooting 39% from distance and is exceptional at creating his own shot. I am not sure the Northern Illinois offense can do enough to win this game. Even at home. The Huskies are currently rated 305th in KenPom’s offensive adjusted efficiency. They are even worse when you take a look at Shot Quality. SQ only has them scoring 0.93 SQ PPP. The shooting percentages are bad, but the ugliest blemish on their resume is their turnover rate. They are 300th in the country with a 21.1% turnover rate. The wrong team was favored at open. Elon wins a close on on the road.
Score Prediction: Elon 73 – Northern Illinois 70
Dayton -16 : I gave this play out on Picks Central today. Thank you to Ev and the guys at Barstool for having me on. Also, thank you to anyone who is reading this blog today after listening as well. Dayton -16 is one of my favorite plays of the season. Let’s dive in.
New Mexico State is dead last in the country in forcing turnovers. Dead last. 364th. This is even with an early schedule against what should be turnover prone teams. They are also 181st in turning the ball over. Dayton doesn’t turn the ball over & is solid in forcing them. The Flyers will win this turnover battle by 10+. I am very confident in that prediction.
Also, NMSU is 328th in 3 point rate allowed. Dayton has shot 95 threes in their first 4 games. The make percentage isn’t there as of yet, but Shot Quality data shows that they should be nearly 6% better on the season with the looks they are getting. This team has gunners everywhere. Even their 7’ers have the range.
Lastly, the Aggies are 357th in the country in Shot Quality’s adjusted defensive rating. Dayton is currently 2nd in shot selection & shooting 49.3% from the field even with that 3-point percentage factored in. The Flyers will pick this team apart. Lay the big number. Dayton wins this game in the 20-25 range. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Dayton 85 – New Mexico State 62
Southern Miss +7 : The Curbelo and Alvarez backcourt for the Golden Eagles is an interesting one. There is so much offensive firepower between the two. The only problem is the turnover bug. I am *hoping* that Curbelo has potentially turned a corner in that department. He currently sports a 3.5/1 ast/to ratio. If we see that again today, Southern Miss could win this game outright. The Jackrabbits rank 346th in the country to start the year in forcing turnovers.
This is probably the worst Jackrabbit offense we have seen in quite some time in Brookings. The scoring burden has been placed on 6’11 Wazzou transfer, Oscar Cluff. He will have a size advantage in the interior in this matchup, but athletically I think that Denijay Harris and DeAantoni Gordon have a chance to slow him down. Outside of Cluff, the only other Jackrabbit in double figures for the year is freshman guard, Joe Sayler. I think that Southern Miss will have enough firepower offensively to stay in this game. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: SDSU 83 – Southern Miss 79
Arkansas Little Rock +13.5 : Mwani Wilkinson (LSU) and Johnathan Lawson (Memphis/Creighton) are thriving in their new home in Little Rock. Wilkinson & Lawson are both averaging over 15.0 ppg while shooting over 44% from distance. This dynamic duo is also bringing it on the defensive end with 3.1 combined blocks between them per game. With KK Robinson out indefinitely, these two are being relied upon heavily. It has taken a few games, but the Trojans looked great last time out against UTSA. I think that they can build off that performance and bring a little bit of a fight to Tulsa today.
Tulsa’s leaky interior defense to start the season finally came back to bite them in a triple OT loss to Missouri State last time out. The Golden Hurricanes are now 290th in the country in 2-point % defense. This is going to significantly help the Little Rock offense attack. The Trojans have been great from deep (40.3% 3PT) & adding some free bunnies from Tulsa should be able to keep them within this large number.
Tulsa gets the win here, but we likely stay under this number for the entirety of the game. Should be high scoring. Lean the over as well.
Score Prediction: Tulsa 82 – Little Rock 73
UCLA 1H -14.5 : Mick Cronin and the Bruins are crushing teams in the 1H of games at Pauley this season. Here are the results that we have seen:
UCLA 41 – Rider 23
UCLA 39 – Boston U 22
UCLA 44 – Lehigh 16
I am excited to jump in and back this angle against Idaho State tonight. This Shot Quality profile will have Kobe Johnson and the Bruins defense licking their chops:
The Bengals are also 4th in the country in frequency of post-ups. This just smells like a recipe for disaster against one of the Top 10 defenses in the country in my opinion (currently 6th in KenPom). Bruins early and often here. Let’s get to sleep before midnight.
Score Prediction: 1H UCLA 40 – Idaho State 22
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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