(photo: VCU Athletics)
24/25 Season Record: 41-35
11/22 Card (all given on Twitter/X) :
- FAU -3.5 (11:30am – ESPN2)
- Oklahoma State +5.5 (2:00pm – ESPNU)
- Vanderbilt -4.5 (5:00pm – ESPN2)
- Temple +5 (5:00pm – ESPN+)
- UVA +11.5 (7:00pm – CBSSN)
- VCU +2.5 (7:30pm – ESPN+)
- Elon +16 (7:30pm – ESPN+/ACC Extra)
- Arizona ML -115 (10:30pm – ESPN2)
- Wichita State -2 (10:30pm – Peacock)
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**Heaviest card of the season and FAU tip is right around the corner. These breakdowns will be brief (compared to normal) due to time**
FAU -3.5 : This team just continues to impress me. John Jakus is the real deal & FAU will be fighting for a tournament birth in my opinion. That was hard to fathom after the departure of Dusty May and the entire roster.
Baba Miller is the key in this handicap for me. Drake does not have a player that has the build to be able to compete with this athleticism. The Bulldogs are 330th in the country frequency of shots allowed attacking the rim. I think it could be a big day for Miller and Vokietaitis. This is also FAU’s 4th consecutive game in Charleston. It is becoming a new home for the Owls!
Score Prediction: FAU 77 – Drake 71
Oklahoma State +5.5 : My power ratings have this matchup around 4 on a neutral in favor of Miami. So, not a huge edge value wise on the surface. However, being in TD Arena yesterday is helping me tremendously with this handicap. I don’t see how Miami gets off of the mat with vengeance against a scrappy Oklahoma State team. The Hurricanes got punked on the glass by an undersized Drake team. Oklahoma State has the size and athleticism to punish them again if they don’t come correct. Also, the Canes gave away so many unforced turnovers. The Cowboys are 27th in the country in forcing turnovers and will be ready to pounce on this. This may be trivial and some of you may not give a shit .. but the Miami bench was completely flat yesterday. The Canes have the least support of any team at this tournament from a fan perspective and if they aren’t getting juice from their bench after good plays .. I think we see a similar performance to yesterday. Flat and uninspired. Pokes could win this outright.
Score Prediction: Miami 79 – Oklahoma State 78
Vanderbilt -4.5 : We have been in the driver’s seat of the Commodore bandwagon since the beginning of the season. This team is so legit. It has been great taking advantage of the early season market due to one of the biggest blemishes in the KenPom ratings that we have out there right now. Seton Hall is the worst team in this Charleston Classic. They made some insane shots in the 2H against VCU to complete their comeback. The Shot Quality score is more indicative of how that game went.
Mark Byington will not allow Seton Hall to muck this game up as Ryan Odom did. Vanderbilt wins this comfortably and gets our +1400 future to the championship game.
Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 69 – Seton Hall 60
Temple +5 : Florida State should not be laying 5 points to Temple on a neutral. The perimeter scoring of the Seminoles is a serious problem. FSU is shooting 26.9% from distance with only 29 makes in 5 games. Temple has 33 makes in 4 games while shooting 41.8%. This will be a huge advantage for the Owls. Florida State is also 287th in the country in free throw rate allowed so far. Jamal Mashburn Jr. has gone to the line 16 times in his last two games and should be claiming residency at the stripe tonight. Temple keeps this one close.
Score Prediction: FSU 74 – Temple 72
UVA +11.5 : This game is priced similarly to UVA’s matchup with Tennessee last night. That doesn’t make sense to me. I agreed with the number last night due to the Vols ability to clamp down on really poor offenses. I do not think that St. John’s (while really good) is at Tennessee’s level in that regard. This price should be around 8-8.5 in a neutral MTE setting. This is a market overreaction. Give me the points with the Hoos.
Score Prediction: St. John’s 69 – Virginia 61
VCU +2.5 : As you saw above from the Shot Quality report, VCU fell victim to some pretty insane difficult shot making by Seton Hall in the 2H last night. The Rams fell in OT after playing about as poorly as they can play. I think VCU bounces back in a big way tonight. The Rams have the length and physicality to cope with the strengths of Nevada in the interior. VCU comes into today’s game as the 8th rated defense per KenPom. They also have a sizable edge in the backcourt with Max Shulga. I think VCU is the better team. I have them favored in my power ratings on a neutral. This is my Best Bet.
Side Note: VCU has the largest contingent of fans in Charleston for this MTE. The Peppas band is also here and making it such a fun and intense college basketball atmosphere. This noise will swallow the miniscule contingent of Nevada supporters. This is a semi-home game for VCU tonight based off of what I saw yesterday in person.
Score Prediction: VCU 74 – Nevada 69
Elon +16 : There is not much left to be said on Elon on this website. This is our third game in a row backing the Phoenix. Let’s make it 3/3 on cashing easily! You guys know how I feel about them & how awesome I think they are compared to their market ratings. Notre Dame’s home atmosphere is a ZERO right now. We saw that last time out when we backed them. I think that the Simpkins twins will be able to at least slow Markus Burton down a bit to keep us within this number.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 76 – Elon 64
Arizona ML : Caleb Love vs Duke. You know what side we are on.
(photo: Raleigh News Observer)
Not only did Caleb end Coach K’s career at a Tar Heel, but he donned these shoes in Cameron Indoor last season while leading Arizona to a win over Duke. He LOVES this matchup. This is the return trip of the home-and-home with Duke and the McKale Center will be rocking. The homecourt is a major factor in my handicap. We saw how Duke’s freshmen handled the neutral site game with Kentucky down the stretch. This will be way more intense. Give me Love and the veteran Wildcats.
Score Prediction: Arizona 82 – Duke 79
Wichita State -2 : The Shockers are the better team here with Robbie Avila still out for an extended period of time for SLU. The Billikens are 306th in height according to KenPom. That is with Avila factored in. Without Avila, this is one of the smallest teams in the country. The Shockers currently rank 2nd in the country in frequency attacking the rim per Shot Quality. It will be a field day in the paint for Wichita State. Also, the Shocker guards have done a decent job defending the perimeter this season by only allowing a 30% make percentage. That is the strength of SLU offensively. I think that Wichita State has the matchup edge here. I will lay the small number.
Score Prediction: Wichita State 80 – Saint louis 74
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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