(photo: CU Athletics)
24/25 Season Record: 67-62
12/3 Card :
- Villanova +4 (6:30pm – FS1) (Caesers)
- UNC Greensboro +2 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
- Southern Illinois +4.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel)
- Providence +6 (8:30pm – FS1) (Given last night on X)
- Clemson +2.5 (9:30pm – ESPN) (Given last night on X)
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Villanova +4 : I am of the belief that the time off has served Nova well. The Wildcats were 7-3 ATS with 4+ days off a season ago. Kyle Neptune definitely has has flaws, but he is able to pull a gameplan together when he has extended time to do so.
Here are the key areas where Villanova is finding success early in this season per Shot Quality:
There are two key areas in the graphic above in which Villanova has a massive advantage in this game. Cincinnati is 352nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage to start the year. Nova is 6th in offensive rebounding percentage and should get many 2nd chance opportunities tonight. Cincinnati is also 352nd in the country in free throw percentage at 59.8%. They have not been in a close game for this to matter, but Villanova is a team that will make you pay in a free throw battle down the stretch.
Cincinnati has had a very weak schedule to start the year. This may be the game where the finally feel the absence of Dan Skillings Jr. I like Nova to keep it close and maybe win this one outright.
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 70 – Villanova 69
UNC Greensboro +2 : I was very high on High Point coming into this season. Their offense is incredible just as I expected. However, the defense is very far off from what I thought they would be capable of being. Maybe that changes, but right now it is not good. They are 282nd in KenPom and 330th on Shot Quality in regards to defensive efficiency. Giving UNCG easy buckets is recipe for disaster.
High Point is one of the better Rim & 3 teams in the country. UNCG is built to stop that attack.
The Spartans are 29th in the country in Rim & 3 Rate allowed on defense, and 46th in regards to Shot Quality PPP defending it. As you can see in the SQ graphic above, they are forcing their opponents into very tough 2’s.
The defense of UNCG will be the difference tonight. They get an upset victory at home (not much of an upset per vegas! ha).
Score Prediction: UNCG 69 – High Point 67
Southern Illinois +4.5 : A Scott Nagy masterclass incoming. The Salukis will put a scare into Bradley tonight in a Valley opener.
Shot Quality shows that the Braves are due for some heavy regression after a hot start to the year:
SIU currently has a Top 100 defense per KenPom. I think they have what it takes to pull the Regression Monster out of hiding. I also just trust Scott Nagy in a conference opener. We saw his success time and time again in conference at Wright State and South Dakota State. I trust him to get this one home for us tonight. I am going to predict an OT win for the Salukis. Why not.
Score Prediction: SIU 76 – Bradley 75 OT
Providence +6 : The Friars had a horrible time in the Bahamas. Horrible. 0-3 including an 11 point loss as a 5.5 favorite to Davidson. They are back home in Providence tonight. That will make the difference. The Friars are an astounding 6-1 ATS as home underdogs over the last two seasons. You always need to take the points when you are getting them with the Friars in Providence. It is really that simple to me.
There are rumors that Bryce Hopkins could make his long awaited return tonight for Providence. I like the Friars at the current number without him, but you are going to see steam like no other if he is activated. Go ahead and lock it in now.
Score Prediction: BYU 72 – Providence 70
Clemson +2.5 : This is my favorite play of the night. The Best Bet. Clemson wins this one.
The Tigers are coming off of their most successful basketball season in a long, long time. There were some doubts on how this season would go after losing Hall, Girard, Godfrey, Clark, etc. Brad Brownell has silenced those doubts very quickly. The Tigers suffered an early season loss at Boise (no shame there), and have since rattled off 4 wins in a row to get to 7-1. This includes pretty dominant wins over San Francisco and Penn State on a neutral. The Chef has been cooking:
The Tigers have moved all the way up to 19th in Shot Quality rating and 25th in KenPom. Their defense is an elite unit. Here are is a brief clipping of their Shot Quality profile (9th in SQ adj def):
The defensive unit is going to be the difference tonight against Kentucky. The Kentucky defensive numbers are being propped up a bit of luck. SQ shows that they should be at .99 PPP instead of .90. Clemson wins the battle of the defenses and wins outright.
Also, what a fiery home spot this is going to be. A Top 5 Kentucky team is heading to Little John in the first big home game of the season after the Elite 8 run. This is a fan base that is going to charged up for this one after a loss in football to their rivals over the weekend (LET’S GO COCKS!). We have seen Duke, UNC and other top ACC teams struggle in this arena over the years. Kentucky will find out the hard way tonight.
Score Prediction: Clemson 79 – Kentucky 72
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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