(photo: Cincinnati Enquirer)
24/25 Season Record: 75-66
12/5 Card :
- Xavier/TCU over 144.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)
- Arkansas State 1H -7.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+)
- Saint Louis +9.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)
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Xavier/TCU over 144.5 : Took a breather from totals until I found one that I loved. I love this one. This is my Best Bet. I believe there is an easy path to points tonight for both teams.
Xavier is a really bad matchup for the TCU defense. Ryan Conwell and the Musketeers are shooting 38.7% from behind the arc this season. Conwell has 30 made triples in the first 8 games. Shooters for days in this roster. TCU’s Shot Quality profile is showing that Xavier could have another big night from distance. The Horned Frogs are 267th in the country in open three rate allowed. They have been fortunate to see teams miss wide open looks in that department. TCU’s opponents are only shooting 28% from three, but SQ expects that to be closer to 34%. The Horned Frogs are also 258th in Rim & 3 rate allowed. Xavier ranks 14th in Rim & 3 SQ PPP. I think Xavier has a big night on the road playing inside out with Freemantle.
TCU should also have a path to points tonight. The Horned Frogs have been pretty horrible shooting the ball to start the year, but I do believe there are capable shooters on this team. Xavier is 357th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed. I think we see the lid come off of the bucket at home for TCU. Xavier’s stout PPP allowed numbers are propped up by a pretty easy non-con schedule thus far. Especially after what we have seen Wake become. Michigan is the only legit team the Muskies have played so far and they were very successful in an offensive game plan centered around Danny Wolf. I believe Jamie Dixon can use this blueprint with Trazarien White (time to step up and return to that UNCW form) and find some similar success.
I lean Xavier to get a big road win if you are looking for a side in this one. However, I will be only getting to the counter on the over here. It looks like we will receive some nice CLV here. Let’s snipe.
Score Prediction: Xavier 78 – TCU 74
Arkansas State 1H -7.5 : Jackson State is now on Game 9 of their 12 game road stretch to start the season. Cashing checks and catching L’s. I believe we see more of the same tonight.
This is one of the most extreme 1H angles that I have come across this season. I didn’t want to lay the big number for the full game, but I will certainly step in here on the 1H. Jackson State is currently 360th in the country by allowing 43.1 opponent 1h points per game (can you blame them). Arkansas State is 83rd in the same category. The Red Wolves also have a very capable offense that will be ready to attack Jackson State sleep walking out of the gate. Shot Quality shows this group is about to break out in a big way:
Arkansas State is coming off of a tough 1-2 trip to the Bahamas. They are better than that. I expect them to come home and put up a great 1H performance behind a sneaky good home court atmosphere at the mid-major level.
Score Prediction: 1H Arkansas State 39 – Jackson State 28
Saint Louis +9.5 : It has not been the dream start that people were hoping to see from the Billikens to begin this season. Avila being banged up to start the year was a major factor in that. I am here to tell ya … he’s back.
The pace of this game is going to play into Avila and SLU’s favor (whether they like it or not). San Francisco is 224th in the country in tempo per KenPom. They will try to make this a half court game. It would be in Saint Louis’ best interest to oblige. They are playing a little too fast for their personnel. I know Schertz likes to run, but this team is much more suited for a halfcourt attack. The Shot Quality numbers prove it! The Billikens are 4th in the country in halfcourt PPP. This allows Robbie Avila to really show his Jokic Jr. capabilities. I think he should be able to find success against the San Francisco defense. The Dons only rank 146th in the country in defending in the halfcourt. I hope Schertz identifies this and plays slower than normal tonight.
Too many points. Give ’em to us.
Score Prediction: San Francisco 77 – Saint Louis 71
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 