(photo: Brice Tucker, Deseret News)
24/25 Season Record: 78-69
12/7 Card :
- Virginia/SMU over 135 (2:15pm – CW Network) (Bally)
- UNLV +11.5 (4:00pm – FS1) (given on X last night)
- NC State -3 (4:00pm – ESPNU) (given on X last night)
- Houston TT over 75.5 (5:30pm – ESPN2) (FD)
- Utah -2.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)
- Winthrop -11 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (Bally)
- Colorado State +3.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (MGM)
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UVA/SMU over 135 : A Virginia over. I promise I am not a masochist.
The UVA staff is trying to deploy the same offensive principles that we saw under Tony Bennett. They are failing to do so. This team cannot take care of the basketball. The Cavs rank 292nd in the country in turnover percentage. SMU is 35th in tempo per KenPom, and they are also 2nd in transition frequency per Shot Quality. The Mustangs will feast in transition and should easily get to double digits on points off of turnovers.
I have been hard on Virginia this year, but one thing they can do is shoot the basketball. Virginia ranks 29th in the country in 3point percentage. SMU is 356th in the country in open 3 rate allowed on defense per Shot Quality. I like the matchup edges in this game to get us over this total.
Score Prediction: SMU 74 – Virginia 65
UNLV +11.5 : I had a little birdie share some whispers about the Pop Isaacs news that dropped this morning. We were able to get a great line last night.
This is a severe gut punch to the Jays coming off of their midweek win over #1 Kansas. Creighton just does not have the guard depth to sustain this. UNLV is 34th in the country in free throw rate per Shot Quality. DJ Thomas is great at creating contact. UNLV might have a chance at an upset if they get Ashworth in to foul trouble. Regardless, I think they keep this one close. Some nice CLV here. Bring it home UNLV.
Score Prediction: Creighton 77 – UNLV 70
NC State -3 : It looks like we will receive some nice CLV here as well. -5 and -5.5 at some places. Florida State is not a 7-2 ballclub. They have picked on inferior opponents and lost pretty convincingly against their only power conference opposition. I am not a Seminole believer this season.
FSU has taken advantage of the turnover margin in their wins this season. They are 6th nationally in forcing turnovers. This Wolfpack team is equipped to limit that damage. Michael O’Connell is an incredible floor general. He has a 4.6/1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. His presence in the NC State backcourt has the Wolfpack 53rd in the country in turnover rate. Florida State will struggle to find points running their “sets” without these turnovers. This team is 218th in Rim & 3 rate even with their gaudy forced turnover percentage.
NC State wins this one at home. Happy to lay the small number we did last night.
Score Prediction: NC State 77 – FSU 69
Houston over 75.5 points : This is going to be a longggggg day for Butler. I was tempted to lay the points here as well, but I see a major edge in the team total. Houston clears 80 today.
The Bulldogs come into this game 328th in the country in turnover rate on offense.
Houston is 24th in forcing turnovers even with the gauntlet they have faced to start the season. It is going to be a layup line at the Fertitta Center. I also think Houston is able to out tough Butler in the post and get plenty of buckets around the rim. LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp will take care of the rest from distance.
I feel confident backing a pissed of Kelvin Sampson team. Let’s get some mud in our blood.
Score Prediction: Houston 81 – Butler 59
Utah -2.5 : Folks, this is one of my favorite bets of the season. The Best Bet on this beautiful Saturday. We got a good number here as well. I see this at 3.5 at most places. Let’s get into why I love this play so much.
The Utes are an analytical darling as you can see from the Shot Quality profile above. Their only loss of the season came at the hands of Mississippi State in Southaven, MS. We all saw what the Bulldogs are capable off this midweek with our Best Bet hit over Pitt. This loss also came without Lawson Lovering in the fold. The 7’1 big made his season debut in late November and had a 16 pt / 8 reb / 3 blk performance last time out. Having Lovering tonight is crucial to compete on the glass with Saxen. Speaking of the glass, the Utes (15th in height per KenPom) are Top 50 in offensive AND defensive rebounding percentage. Saint Mary’s gets a lot of their offense from the offensive glass. I think that is erased tonight.
Utah is also equipped to handle the slow down approach from Saint Mary’s. Look at these halfcourt numbers from Shot Quality!
This is Saint Mary’s first road game of the season. The Gaels didn’t even have to leave California for their MTE. They struggled mightily in these spots last season. A lot of the same crew is back. Utah took them to the cleaners in Moraga last season, and I expect them to do it again tonight.
Score Prediction: Utah 76 – Saint Mary’s 66
Winthrop -11 : KenPom only has this graded as an 8 point win for the Eagles, but I think Vegas is onto something with where they have priced this matchup.
Coastal Carolina should not be winning basketball games. This team is horrible. They have fallen to 345th in Shot Quality’s adjusted offensive rating. 314th in KenPom in offensive efficiency. I think Winthrop’s pace and athleticism has the recipe to blow this team out today.
This profile is screaming to me that Winthrop will overwhelm the Chanticleers. I am not going to overthink this one. Banking on a blowout in Rock Thrill.
Score Prediction: Winthrop 79 – Coastal Carolina 63
Colorado State +3.5 : I love the Rams in this rivalry matchup. They will get an outright road victory. Nique Clifford will be the difference. This number is available at MGM right now. I am surprised they are offering. Most of the market is at +2.5 or +3. I would recommend getting the full 3 to play this one if you can’t place at MGM.
Nique is not just a future professional.. he is a future NBA player. He has the complete package and is one of the better players we have in the college game right now. He is making his long awaited return to Boulder tonight. Clifford was able to knock off the Buffaloes in Colorado Springs last year, but tonight’s game will mean a little bit more to him. He was never really trusted to provide production when he played for Colorado, so I expect him to have a big night in this arena.
The Rams faced a little bit of a skid in the early season but have seemingly corrected their issue with a win over TCU in their MTE, followed by a blowout of LMU at home. Their defense is legit. They are getting closer and closer to becoming a Top 50 SQ and KenPom unit in that regard. I think they will get enough stops to bring this one home for us.
Someone get us odds on a Nique Clifford step-back for the win.
Score Prediction: Colorado State 71 – Colorado 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 