(photo: Arizona Desert Swarm)
24/25 Season Record: 89-78
12/14 Card :
- Memphis +6.5 (11:00am – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday) *** No write-up with the early tip
- Texas A&M / Purdue over 143 (12:00pm – CBS) (DK) **No write-up on this one. Just added at 11:34am**
- Arizona -1.5 (3:00pm –ESPN2) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
- Kansas -13.5 (3:15pm – ESPN) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
- Santa Clara -3 (4:30pm – BallerTV) (given on X yesterday)
- UC Irvine +2.5 (5:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday)
- Dayton +1.5 (7:00pm – CBSSN) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
- Oklahoma State +5.5 (8:00pm – ESPNU) (given on X yesterday)
- Boise State +3.5 (9:00pm – MW Network) (given on X yesterday)
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Arizona -1.5 : This is not a “true” home game, but the Wildcats are playing just down the road in Phoenix. Arizona is still getting capped with a homecourt advantage for me.
Arizona is the 1st team that UCLA has faced this season that can match them defensively. The Wildcats come into today ranked 38th in KenPom and 21st on Shot Quality. That matters. I have a strong feeling that UCLA’s offense will get a exposed a bit today.
As you can see above, UCLA is due to perform a little bit worse on both ends of the court per Shot Quality. This is a bit concerning with the strength of schedule they have played so far. They are 1-1 against Top 100 KenPom teams. They lost by 8 to New Mexico on a neutral early on, and then won on a banked in buzzer beater three over Oregon last time out.
We are getting massive CLV here. Up to -4.5 at some markets. I am feeling pretty great about this one. Arizona gets the win they desperately need. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Arizona 79 – UCLA 70
Kansas -13.5 : The Jayhawks are returning to Allen Fieldhouse today. I am very worried for you NC State.
Kansas really embarrassed themselves on the road the last two times out. A lot of cracks in their armor were brought to light. I am not overreacting as much as the general public though. I have stated many times that I believed a lot of the Kansas struggles would come on the road this season. I am not factoring those performances into my handicap today at all really. This is still firmly a Top 10 team in the country in my estimation.
I am worried about NC State’s ability to score the ball today. Their offensive gameplan plays right into the hands of Kansas’ defensive scheme. The Wolfpack are 327th in the country in Rim and 3 %, 312th in SQ PPP on Cuts, and 295th in the country in SQ PPP in the halfcourt. They also struggle in P&R ball screen scenarios so that takes away any advantage that you have against Hunter Dickinson. NC State is great in transition, but I just don’t see many opportunities for that today.
I like Kansas to win BIG today. This is my 2nd Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Kansas 83 – NC State 64
Santa Clara -3 : There is a major injury doubt for Bradley in this game.
Duke Deen is one of the better players at the mid-major level that you probably have never heard of. I like Santa Clara at the current number regardless, but I will obviously love this play even more if he is deemed inactive.
Cliché time. Santa Clara might be the best 5-5 team in the country. The Broncos are still in the Top 85 in both KenPom and Shot Quality’s overall rankings. They need to start winning games though. I think they matchup well personnel wise with Bradley. The Broncos will own the paint and glass tonight with a significant advantage height and length wise. I also think this Bradley start has been a bit of smoke and mirrors.
The Braves are due for some serious regression per Shot Quality. They also got blown out 91-74 by Washington State in their only other Top 100 KenPom matchup. I like our chances with the Broncos today.
Score Prediction: Santa Clara 76 – Bradley 69
UC Irvine +2.5 : The Anteaters are on a mission! UC Irvine is all the way up to 53rd in KenPom after starting the season 9-0. Tied for the nation’s longest winning streak. Let’s get into why I think they get it done today on the road at Oregon State.
UC Irvine ranks 6th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. That is no fluke. Russell Turner has had the Anteaters in the Top 100 in 9 out of the 10 previous seasons (109th in lone other). He is a phenomenal coach & needs more respect. This is a complete team. Not only does the defense ROCK, but the offense is getting it done as well. Irvine ranks 1st (!!!) in the country in free throw percentage. They are also scoring 1.08 PPP and SQ backs that up to be a true indicator of their looks. That is more than plenty with how well the defense has performed.
Oregon State’s offensive gameplan is on the verge of crumbling. They are now 9th in the country in the ISO play-type frequency. They do find success when they try P&R ball screens and attacking the rim per SQ, but UC Irvine is elite at defending both. I just love this matchup for Irvine. Give us the points. It’s Bent Leuchten SZN everyone.
Score Prediction: UC Irvine 68 – Oregon State 66
Dayton +1.5 : This is my 2nd favorite home atmosphere “spot” of the season so far. Remember that Clemson spot that we pounced on against Kentucky a little over a week ago? I think UD Arena could be just as fiery today.
Marquette has found a ton of success in forcing turnovers and getting out in transition this year. Dayton is not going to turn the ball over. They are 13th in the country in turnover rate, and are rated 4th in the country in passing per Shot Quality. Malachi Smith has been awesome this year. It is great to see him healthy and facilitating in this offense. Up to 5.5 assists per game for the year.
Marquette is 201st in Rim & 3 rate allowed. I think that catches up with them today in this pressure cooker environment we will have in Dayton. The Flyers get a monster win for their resume. This is my THIRD (and final) Best Bet of the day.
Score Prediction: Dayton 78 – Marquette 73
Oklahoma State +5.5 : OU has had a phenomenal start to the season. Are they really 5.5 points better than OSU on a neutral in OKC? Nope.
Jeremiah Fears and the Oklahoma backcourt has been awesome this year. However, they are facing a little bit of a different challenge today. Steve Lutz has his guards in pressure defense at all times. The Cowboys are 18th in the country in forcing turnovers. I do not think Oklahoma will have the freedom to get into their usual flow in this game.
There is another monster edge in this game that I have uncovered. OU ranks 311th in the country in opponent’s percentage of points coming from the free throw line. The Cowboys are 36th in the country in free throw rate. I believe that the charity stripe will be crucial in keeping them competitive in this one.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 77 – Oklahoma State 75
Boise State +3.5 : This line is an indicator that the books have not changed their tune on St. Mary’s power rating. I haven’t either. They have burned us several times, but I have not come away after those games thinking that we have had it totally wrong. I think have been pretty fortunate. Shot Quality data backs that up. SQ had our Utah game rated as an 85-72 win over the Gaels. It also shows that they should be closer to 1.05 PPP allowed on the season instead of .98. I will continue to side with the books in my assumption of this team.
Boise State remains an analytical darling even with their 6-3 record. They are 15th in Shot Quality’s adjusted overall rating. They have Top 20 units in both offense and defense per the data. The Broncos also are still sitting 57th in KenPom. Today is the day they burst through. Their 1.20 SQ PPP will be enough to finally make St. Mary’s pay. This game is similar to Arizona. Not a true home game, but it is still in Idaho. I think the support will be strong. Boise State wins outright. Give us the points. This was close to a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Boise State 70 – Saint Mary’s 67
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 