(photo: Kansas State Athletics)
24/25 Season Record: 98-85
12/17 Card :
- South Carolina +1.5 (7:00pm – SECN) (given on X yesterday)
- North Carolina +4.5 (7:00pm – ESPN) (given on X yesterday)
- Villanova -8.5 (7:30pm – Peacock) (DK)
- Georgia State +39.5 (8:00pm – SECN+/ESPN+) (DK)
- Kansas State +1 (8:0pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
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South Carolina +1.5 : We have talked about watching out for sleepy home spots when the students are away. This is not one of those scenarios. Colonial Life Arena will be rocking tonight for this rivalry matchup. Clemson is 1-1 in true road games this season. They got beaten pretty handily by Boise State early on. The win was over a struggling Miami team a little over a week ago. I think this could be a tricky spot for the the Tigers.
This is going to be Ian Schieffelin’s toughest test of the season. Collin Murray-Boyles is playing at a 1st team All-SEC level.
CMB has seen a major uptick in both scoring and rebounding in his sophomore season. He has recorded a double-double in three straight. The rebounding will be a major factor today. The Chef has carried Clemson to this strong start with his presence on the glass. I think CMB eliminates that edge tonight.
As you can see above, the SEC is on an unprecedented run to start the year. I am going to back the Gamecocks here as a short underdog at home. South Carolina gets a big time rivalry win at the CLA.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 68 – Clemson 66
UNC +4.5 : This is such a big spot for the Tar Heels. UNC is facing a #7 ranked Florida team in Charlotte with a semi-home crowd. They need to get this one.
Boy, our preseason Florida tickets are looking quite nice right now. We have Florida +6000 to win the title and +2700 to win the SEC. Love it. If I am going to nitpick our Gators, it is going to be with the strength of schedule to this point. I stumbled upon this tweet from Matthew Winick yesterday and it is so true
North Carolina has defensive struggles themselves, but the offense has still been as high octane as we are used to seeing from the Tar Heels. They are 10th in adj. SQ offensive rating and 21st in KenPom offensive efficiency. This poses a serious threat for Florida as they are due for regression defensively per SQ even with the schedule they have played thus far.
I am confident North Carolina can keep this close. I think there is a solid chance that they can even win the game behind the Charlotte crowd at the Jumpman Invitational. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: North Carolina 84 – Florida 83
Villanova -8.5 : This is one of those games where it is a clash of similar approaches. Both teams want to play to low possessions and force their opponent into midrange jumpers. Both teams are Top 50 in Rim & 3 Shot Quality PPP allowed. Yet, we see a spread of 8.5 in this Big East conference matchup. Why? The Nova offense.
Villanova is rated 13th (!!!) in KenPom offensive efficiency. I feel like people have lost sight of this after their slow start to the season from a record perspective. The Wildcats are also:
- 16th in Effective FG%
- 14th in Offensive Reb. %
- 9th in 3Point %
- 14th in FT %
The Seton Hall offense is non-existent. They are rated 296th in KenPom and 310th in Shot Quality on the offensive end. Their plan of “mucking up” a game will not work in this matchup. Villanova already lives in the muck. They will welcome this style of game and outscore Seton Hall in the process. I am laying the points here.
Score Prediction: Villanova 69 – Seton Hall 57
Georgia State +39.5 : Auburn rocks. Like, ROCKS. But this number is a bit out of hand, right? My numbers are pointing this to being around 33. The Tigers have certainly outperformed analytical projections to start the year, but when you start to reach laying near 40 points.. then that ability diminishes greatly.
This Georgia State roster is not full of slouches. Nutter and Lane can score the basketball from a backcourt perspective. Edwards and McMullen can rebound the basketball. I just don’t think a team of this caliber should be getting 39 points. Kentucky and Mississippi State did reach the century mark in their games against the Panthers this season, but Georgia State was able to score 66 and 76 points in those games to thwart any risk of losing by 40 points or more.
I would be stunned to see The Jungle rocking as it has been earlier on this season. I think that the homecourt advantage will still be strong, but just turned down a tick due to the students leaving for the holidays. Especially against a team like Georgia State. This could be considered a sleepy spot for Auburn. I will take the 39 and a half.
Score Prediction: Auburn 95 – Georgia State 61
Kansas State +1 : I am coming at the Drake throne again. This time I won’t miss.
As you know, we are very familiar with the Bulldogs. I watched all three of their games in person at the Charleston Classic. They unfortunately ripped our hearts out and beat Vanderbilt in the championship game to ruin our future. I walked away super impressed at what McCollum and his group from the D2 level was able to already achieve that early on in the season. However, Kansas State is a threat that Drake has not faced thus far.
Drake’s major advantage in the Charleston Classic was winning the offensive glass. They have continued that advantage and have risen all of the way to 19th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I have a strong feeling that Drake will take a step back in this regard today against a Big 12 frontline. Kansas State ranks 50th in this category and I feel will continue to get stronger now that Coleman Hawkins and David N’Guessan are getting more familiar playing with one another. I do not see that advantage happening again today for Drake. Without the rebounding edge, I think Drake could be in trouble here.
Kansas State has been off since December 6th. I have read many behind the scenes reports from those in Manhattan that seem to believe Jerome Tang has righted this ship during the time off. The dismissal of Achor Achor might be an addition by subtraction for this group. It seems like a lot of the drama has subsided. I feel confident backing them in this spot just 1.5 hours down the road in Kansas City, MO. We are getting some nice CLV here. Let’s bring it home. Best Bet.
https://twitter.com/wibwKatie/status/1868812286774984885
Score Prediction: Kansas State 73 – Drake 66
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 