(photo: FAU Athletics)
24/25 Season Record: 108-91
12/21 Card :
- Mississippi State +1.5 (12:30pm – CBS) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
- Florida Atlantic +12.5 (2:00pm – FS1) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
- UNC +1.5 (3:00pm – CBS) (FD)
- Pepperdine ML -115 (3:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
- Villanova/Creighton over 143 (4:00pm – FS1) (Caesars)
- Purdue +9.5 (4:30pm – ESPN) (FD)
- Oregon/Stanford under 150.5 (8:00pm – BTN) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
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Sorry fellas. Only had time for the Best Bets on the write-up.
Mississippi State +1.5 : The SEC has been getting a ton of love in the media across the last few weeks. Deservingly so. This conference is on another level.
(credit: barttorvik.com)
The SEC is an astounding 51-19 against Top 100 opponents in non-con play. No other conference is even at .500. With all of the praise that the SEC is receiving, I feel like one of the better teams in the conference is still getting slept on. This Mississippi State team is for real. One of my analytical darlings. Check out their Shot Quality profile.
The Bulldog defense is the edge in today’s matchup. As you can see above, they are defending at an elite level. 0.95 SQ PPP allowed is not something you see often. In comparison, Memphis is sitting at 1.09. The turnover battle is going to be key here. This is also another area where Mississippi State excels. The Bulldogs rank 2nd (!!!) in the country in offensive turnover %. Chris Jans has instilled valuing the basketball with this group. They are also Top 15 in the country in BOTH steal percentage and steal percentage allowed. Memphis ranks 286th in turnover percentage on offense and are 327th in non-steal turnover %. This is a masssssssssive edge fellas.
I don’t see the Forum being too hostile today. Students are home for break and it is an 11:30am local tip. I think Mississippi State rolls in and handles business. Add another tally to the SEC.
Score Prediction: Mississippi State 78 – Memphis 72
FAU +12.5 : This is just too many points. If you are just now placing this bet, you can even get a 13.5. It is not computing in my head as to why the Owls are this big of an underdog.
Florida Atlantic has been on the receiving end of some horrible shot making luck from their opponents. The Owls rank 356th in the country in opponent three point make percentage. Woof. This is not their fault though! Shot Quality shows that FAU is 33rd in the country in Open 3Point rate allowed. This is going to correct itself in a hurry. Michigan State is a great candidate to be the team that starts the correction. The Spartans only have 62 three point makes in 11 games so far this season. They are shooting 27.8% from distance and are 268th in the country in Open 3 Point rate. Let’s pile up some bricks for an Owls opponent for once.
I also think that Baba Miller is a great matchup edge for the Owls against the Spartans a well. The Sparty bigs struggle with stretch 4’s. Baba has NBA level stretch-4 talent.
I think FAU easily wins the three point edge in this game. I also think they can compete in the interior. I made this game -8. There is a ton of value here.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 82 – FAU 74
Oregon/Stanford under 150.5 : I love our chances at the under here. It is important to note that this game is being played at a neutral site in San Jose. Let’s hope those screws are tightened up!
These defenses rock. Oregon is at 1.03 SQ PPP allowed & Stanford is at 1.00. This is very important with a pace that I believe will be slower than the market suggests. Dana Altman and Kyle Smith are very familiar with each other from their Pac-12 battles over the years. This will be an absolute chess match with some zones thrown in here and there. Oregon is 152nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom, but I think this game plays much closer to where Stanford ranks in that category (222nd).
Short and sweet on this one. I love my projected pace and the defenses. Team rims.
Score Prediction: Oregon 74 – Stanford 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 