(photo: Hawkeyes Wire)
24/25 Season Record: 134-107
1/7 Card :
- Xavier +1.5 (6:30pm – FS1) (given on X yesterday)
- Florida -1.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday)
- Arizona -2 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
- Iowa -3.5 (8:00pm – Peacock) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
- Texas +11.5 (9:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday)
- UNLV/Boise State under 140.5 (10:30pm – FS1) (FD)
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Xavier +1.5 : Zach Freemantle is so important to this team’s power rating for me. It was a complete surprise to most of us that he returned as quickly as he did from his lower body injury. Many were reporting that his Xavier career was over in the days following the injury. Freemantle looked like his normal self against Georgetown, so that has bumped the Muskies back up in my power ratings. That bump has them as a short favorite for me in this one. I will gladly take the point and a half of cushion.
There are some ATS trends working in our favor here. Xavier is 1-0 ATS in their only scenario as a home dog this season. They lost to Marquette by 2 points at the Cintas Center & almost won the damn thing after a furious comeback. The Musketeers are also 4-1 ATS following a loss this season. St. John’s has looked mortal on the road in conference to start the season. They are 0-2 ATS with an outright loss to Creighton w/o Pop Isaacs, and a narrow comeback win by 2 points over Providence w/o Bryce Hopkins. I like the way these trends are speaking to me.
I believe that the three point line is the key tonight. The Johnnies are 297th in the country in three point makes per game. Xavier is going to blitz them from behind the arc & win outright to get their season back on track.
Score Prediction: Xavier 78 – St. John’s 74
Florida -1.5 : A lot of people in national media that only look at the AP Poll are surprised to see Tennessee as an underdog. There is no surprise to me that Florida is a short favorite here. The analytics show us that these teams are in a dead heat for 2nd place in the SEC behind Auburn at the moment. Florida is actually 4 spots higher than Tennessee in the SQ adjusted overall rating. I am glad to lay the short number at home.
This is the key analytic tonight. Tennessee is not going to be able to impose their will physically tonight as they have so far this season. This Florida team can bang with the best of them. Another data point I am looking at is Tennessee’s three point rate allowed. Teams are letting it fly from distance because they are unable to penetrate the paint on the Vols. Florida will be just fine settling behind the arc with Walter Clayton Jr. and the rest of their cast. The Gators are 31st in the country in three pointers made per game, and are 6th in the country per Shot Quality in 3PT efficiency.
Some serious steam here. I hope most of you grabbed this number last night. Laying -3.5 or -4 would give me pause. I do think Florida wins by a couple of possessions though. The last remaining undefeated goes down tonight.
Score Prediction: Florida 76 – Tennessee 71
Arizona -2 : The Wildcats are getting blasted for their early season results. Rightfully so. 8-5 is not good enough for the talent level of this roster. This team is finally starting to round into form in my estimation though. The Wildcats most recently picked up a win over Cincinnati on the road. They had to hold onto the win at the end, but what impressed me was the gear that they hit to build out a 19 point 2H lead. There is a good team in there. I believe it.
This is a rematch of a Battle 4 Atlantis matchup earlier in the season. Arizona fought back from a 10 point 2H deficit to force OT, but the Mountaineers 12 three point makes proved to be too much in the end. I think they will find a hard time replicating that success today. The main reason? The fella that went 8-12 from distance is out indefinitely. The Mountaineers have been winning without their start forward, Tucker DeVries, but I suspect that is going to catch up with them starting today. I am also worried about the Mountaineer defense long-term. Shot Quality shows they are due for serious regression:
Arizona still ranks high analytically. They are 17th in KenPom and 29th in the SQ Adj rating. The Wildcats have proven that they can handle a road environment and I like them to pick up a win tonight in a revenge spot. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Arizona 77 – WVU 70
Iowa -3.5 : This is going to be a blitz that we have become accustomed to seeing a couple of times a season at Carver-Hawkeye over the last 5-6 years. Fran McCaffery always has a high octane offense capable of delivering a blowout, and I certainly see the opportunity for one tonight.
Nebraska’s defensive scheme is in trouble here in my opinion. The Cornhuskers are 355th in the country in opponent three point rate. They are allowing three point attempts on 49.7% of their opponent’s shots from the field. Hoiberg has found success this season, so it is hard to knock it from a macro standpoint. The are protecting the paint, allowing huge spacing (347th in the country), and trying to close out hard on three pointers. It has been successful this season because their opponents are only shooting 29.2% from distance. That is 34th best in the country. That is bound to change in my opinion. Shot Quality shows that the Cornhuskers should be allowing close to 33% based on the looks of their opponents. Iowa is going to bring them that regression in a big way today. The Hawkeyes are elite in protecting the ball (5th), spacing (21st) and efficient three point shooting (23rd). I would not be shocked to see 15+ makes from distance from Iowa. I smell a blowout in a bounce back spot for Iowa. I might even toy with some alt lines. I love this one.
Score Prediction: Iowa 86 – Nebraska 72
Texas +11.5 : You aren’t going to get a lot from me here. Auburn is fantastic. There are not many analytical edges that you can point to as a weakness that Texas can exploit. I am simply fighting back against the “Auburn Tax” in the market. I had this game at 8. I will take the double digit points with the Longhorns in a fiery home spot. Best of luck to us all.
Score Prediction: Auburn 80 – Texas 72
UNLV/Boise State under 140.5 : I am predicting a very slow pace tonight. The Runnin’ Rebels coming into tonight’s game at 281st in KenPom adjusted tempo. Boise State comes in at 215, but I think that Leon Rice wouldn’t mind if they even played a little slower than that. These defenses are also pretty decent. Boise State is pushing to be a Top 50 ShotQuality adjusted defense, and UNLV is close to cracking the Top 100. The Runnin’ Rebels also have a glaring spot on their resume that is due for regression. They are 20th in the country in 3PT % shooting 38.5%. I just do not believe in the long-term success in the shooters on this team. They don’t either. They are 287th in the country in 3PT rate. Their regression will come in a big way with a 3PT rate that low. I suspect we see a very low 3point make number on the road in Boise tonight. I see this number closer to 136-137. I will take my chances with the under here.
Score Prediction: Boise State 73 – UNLV 64
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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