(photo: Zach Boyden-Holmes / The Register)
24/25 Season Record: 146-121
1/15 Card :
- Iowa State -5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
- Tennessee -11 (8:00pm – SECN) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
- Utah +4.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
- Purdue/Washington over 144.5 (9:30pm – BTN) (given on X yesterday)
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Iowa State -5.5 : Nothing like a little Hilton Magic to get us out of our funk. Hilton Coliseum is going to be a pressure cooker tonight. The Cyclones have the nation’s longest winning streak and are welcoming Kansas to Ames. This is about as tuned up of a home court advantage that you will get all season from a handicapping perspective. Is that baked into this number? Yes. However, my number for this game is different than the norm. My power ratings of these teams have Iowa State -4.5 to -5 on a neutral. I will gladly lay the -5.5 here.
This Kansas roster still does not do it for me. When you talk about how much money was spent in Lawrence this offseason, I think it is close to a complete disaster from a roster construction standpoint. (Yes, I am aware they are 12-3 and are ranked 9th in the AP Poll.) The backcourt is where the problem lies for me. Zeke Mayo is the only Jayhawk that has scored with enough firepower to be a difference maker for this team. Yet, he he has been a non-factor in true road games: 12 points at Creighton, 4 points at Mizzou, 6 points at UCF, 9 points at Cincinnati. Shooting a combined 14/39 from the field in those four games. Rylan Griffen and AJ Storr were the star pieces from the transfer portal class this offseason, and they can’t even get on the court at the moment. Storr has played a combined 14 minutes in the last two games. Bill Self is having to lean on DaJuan Harris, Zeke Mayo and Shakeel Moore to carry the minutes at the moment. This Jayhawks have fallen all the way to 363rd in the country in free throw rate. There are 364 teams, fellas. There is ZERO rim threat from this team other than an occasional KJ Adams lob. Even he is struggling to find his form this season. I don’t see a world where this team finds success offensively tonight.
Iowa State is incredible. One of my favorite teams in the country this year. The home court atmosphere will be special, and I don’t see a world where Zeke Mayo decides to flip the script on his road performances here. Hunter Dickinson can’t do it all on his own in this one. I think Iowa State wins this one comfortably. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Iowa State 77 – Kansas 68
Tennessee -11 : It has been an awesome season so far for Mike White and the Bulldogs. Georgia is all the way up to 36th in KenPom. Amazing stuff. Tonight is going to be a tough wake up call.
Tennessee is a horrible matchup for Georgia. The Dawgs have found success this season on the offensive glass, from the free throw line, and on 2point FG %. These are three key areas that the Vols are equipped to limit. Georgia is 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, but Tennessee bests them by coming in at 7th. The Vols are 20th in the country in opponent free throw rate, so UGA will likely struggle to make their same impact there as well. Also, Tennessee is 27th in the country in opponent 2point FG%. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the country per KenPom in opponent effective field goal percentage. UGA is going to find it very difficult to lean on any of their strengths tonight.
Tennessee is also equipped to attack the flaws that Georgia has. UGA ranks 278th in the country in turnover percentage on offense. They are also ranked 331st in steal percentage allowed. The Vols defense ranks Top 50 in both of these categories. The points off of turnovers gap should be massive in this game.
I like Tennessee to come after their road trip and kick some ass. This is my 2nd Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 75 – UGA 59
Utah +4.5 : I really like this spot for Utah. The Utes have 6 losses on the season and the record doesn’t look sexy, but all six of these losses were to Top 50 KenPom teams. They aren’t built to compete with the big boys, but I think that they can be a scrappy team against teams that are on their level.
This Horned Frog offense is really awful to watch. From the eye test, this is the worst offense that I can remember under Jamie Dixon in Fort Worth. I did some digging and TCU is ranked lower in the KenPom adjusted offensive rating than any team in recorded history for Jamie Dixon. TCU is ranked 235th in the country in effective FG %. Utah’s defense is ranked 40th in effective FG % allowed. The Utes are also 48th in this category offensively.
The results will start falling Utah’s way when they aren’t playing the giants of the Big 12. Utah is a better team than TCU in my estimation. TCU’s homecourt is certainly not worth 4.5. The Utes pick-up a road win here.
Score Prediction: Utah 73 – TCU 71
Purdue/Washington over 144.5 : The Boilermaker offense is finally finding its footing this season after replacing the big fella. Purdue is averaging 83.7 PPG over their last three games. They are also all the way up to 6th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive rating. Washington’s defense has gotten completely blasted in their last three outings. They have given up 86.7 PPG in their last three. Purdue is going to have their way offensively in this one. I also think Washington will find a little bit of success against Purdue defensively in the Boilermakers first new-age West Coast Big 10 road trip. The Huskies adjusted tempo keeps rising. There will be points in this one.
Score Prediction: Purdue 79 – Washington 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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