(photo: Erik Schelkun)
24/25 Season Record: 160-129
1/21 Card :
- Rhode Island +7 (7:00pm – CBSSN) (given on X yesterday)
- Cincinnati +2 (7:00pm – ESPNU) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
- Mississippi State +7.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday)
- Dayton -3.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
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Rhode Island +7 : We are going to turn to our great friends over at Shot Quality for the edge in this matchup. I was doing some snooping around the site last night to see if I was able to marry my eye test with their fantastic data. Spoiler alert: I was.
Rhode Island has been fantastic attacking the rim in every game I have watched of theirs this season. Sebastian Thomas is one of the main focal points of that attack. He has gotten to the line 122 times this season! That is good for T-27th in the country. The Shot Quality data shows that VCU has received luck in opponent misses around the rim. The data expects them to be 6.3 percentage points higher in FG% allowed in that area.
Rhode Island’s frequency attacking the rim & free throw rate should be enough to bring out the Regression Monster on the Rams. I already liked this spot from a feel standpoint, so I am excited to back the home dog tonight. Give us the points.
Score Prediction: VCU 77 – Rhode Island 74
Cincinnati +2 : I will continue to back these Bearcats at their current market price. I am a firm believer in the pieces and coaching on this team in comparison to where they are betting priced from a betting perspective.
This Cincinnati defense is continuously getting slept on by national media. The Bearcats are all the way up to 7th in KenPom’s defensive rating. They are 5th in the country when it comes to effective field goal percentage allowed. That could be trouble for a Red Raider offense that sometimes struggles with shot selection (179th in SQ). The Red Raiders butter their bread by their abilities to score Rim & 3 SQ PPP better than any team in the country. Cincinnati is equipped to handle that. The Bearcats rank 4th in defending that metric. I think we see a lot of poor shots from the Red Raiders tonight that will lead to a strong performance from Cincy. I love the short home dog here. Bearcats win this one. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 69 – Texas Tech 65
Mississippi State +7.5 : We received some great injury news this morning on two Bulldog players from Jon Rothstein.
These two guys have turned out to be major pieces for Chris Jans this season. It is important that they play tonight.
7.5 is an insane number to me. I know the firepower that Tennessee possesses in Knoxville. We backed them very recently on a big number against UGA. Mississippi State is just getting slept on here though in my opinion. This team is really good. The Bulldogs are actually rated higher in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rankings. SQ has Miss State at 8th & Tennessee at 12th. The market is being driven by a 74-65 predicted final on KenPom. I just don’t see it. This Bulldog defense will travel. They are up to 5th in SQ adjusted defensive rating. The regression model shows they are due to get even better. Meanwhile, SQ shows that Tennessee is due for a massive uptick in offense allowed from their opponents. They are sitting at .90 PPP allowed, and SQ projects them to be at 1.02. Give us the points. Mississippi State might be live here.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 71 – Mississippi State 69
Dayton -3.5 : The market is loving to fade Dayton at the moment. Can you blame them? The Flyers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7. This number is down to 2.5 at some markets. I know the Flyers have been a shell of their former self recently, but this matchup is screaaaaaming Flyers by double digits.
Why is this the spot that the market is choosing to attack Dayton the hardest? Couldn’t tell ya. Maybe it is because Duquesne bounced Dayton from the A-10 tournament a season ago. I wouldn’t bank on that having any relevance. A revenge spot for Dayton if anything. This is a very poorly coached Duquesne team. I am not a believer in Dru Joyce (yet). The Dukes are lacking in many areas in his first year at the helm. The Shot Quality PPP allowed ATO’s is telling. The Dukes rank 360th in that regard. Pure coaching ineptitude. The roster just isn’t that great in my opinion as well. The Dukes are 340th in shots allowed attacking the rim. There is no rim protection to be found. The really damning stat is their free throw rates. Duquesne ranks 278th in FTR, and the also rank 312th in opponent FTR. This is going to be the area where Dayton feasts. The Flyers get to the line even during their struggles. Dayton is 35th in the country in FTR, and are 88th in opponent FTR. There should be a massive edge tonight from the stripe for Dayton.
Dayton reminds some folks today. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Dayton 73 – Duquesne 63
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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