(photo: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images)
24/25 Season Record: 182-147
2/1 Card :
- Villanova -1.5 (1:00pm – FOX)
- Ole Miss +6.5 (2:00pm – ESPN)
- Oklahoma -2.5 (3:30pm – SECN)
- UConn +7.5 (8:00pm – FOX)
- Gonzaga +1 (11:00pm – ESPN)
** All given on X. Any other adds will be tweeted out without a write-up
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Villanova -1.5 : This is the return leg from a conference meeting that we saw on December 21st earlier this season. Creighton was able to pull away in the 2H and get a homecourt win. I firmly believe Villanova returns the favor today.
Creighton is 360th in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Villanova’s methodical offense that runs through Brickus and Dixon is a terrible matchup for a Jays team that lacks in ball pressure. The Wildcats rank 2nd in ShotQuality’s offensive spacing metric.
This mismatch led to Villanova only having ONE turnover on the road in Omaha. One. Creighton was able to win the game behind a scorching three point performance as a team. The Jays shot 14-25 from three. These shots snowballed momentum in a very tough place to play, and Villanova just couldn’t catch up. I believe the matchup edge listed above will be a huge factor today. Also, the Wildcats have moved up to the #1 three point percentage team in the country. I think they steal back the 3point edge at Finneran.
Nova wins the three point and turnover battle and gets a big time home win. Will lay the tiny number.
Score Prediction: Villanova 73 – Creighton 68
Ole Miss +6.5 : This is one of my favorite plays of the season. The Rebs are winnin’ this one outright.
If you are going to come at Auburn, you best have a ShotQuality profile like the one you see below:
I trust Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray to be able to handle the ball pressure that Pearl will throw at them. Keeping Auburn from getting in transition is going to be key here. In the event that live ball turnovers do happen, Ole Miss ranks Top 30 in the country in transition defense per Shot Quality.
It also needs to be pointed out that Auburn has consistently been on the receiving end of poor shot making luck by their opponents. I will not necessarily call these outcomes a “fluke”, I believe their spirts and momentum can have a major impact on open looks for their opponents. Especially at the Jungle. They are on the road today though. I think the Regression Monster might come out to play.
Auburn has barely skated by in a few road contests recently (USC & UGA). I believe that Ole Miss’ ability to take care of the ball & create will be enough to pull off a win in this fiery home spot. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 74 – Auburn 73
Oklahoma -2.5 : I side with KenPom instead of the AP Poll here. KenPom projections have this as a 5 point Sooner victory. I made this game -5.5. I think Oklahoma has a chance to win comfortably in this one. I would’ve played Oklahoma up to 4. I will gladly lay the 2.5.
It is an awesome story to see Vanderbilt at 16-4 and ranked in the polls in Mark Byington’s first season at the helm. We were on this team early and rode them all of the way to the Charleston Classic championship game. We were even able to continue to grab value on the Dores early in SEC play. The value in their market price has been completely drained at this point though. In fact, I think the pendulum has finally swung the other way. It is time to step in and make a play against Vandy.
The Sooners are finally finding their footing after a rough start to SEC play. Oklahoma was 13-0 entering conference play and then proceeded to lose their first four SEC games. They have won 2 out of 3 since, and the offense continues to be LEGIT. The Sooners are 26th and 28th in the KenPom and ShotQuality adjusted offensive ratings. Vanderbilt has been impressive in conference, but a lot of that great form has come in Nashville. The Dores are 1-2 in conference on the road (lone win at LSU) & allowing 83.3 points per game in those contests. Oklahoma should be able to score at will in this one. Jeremiah Fears is a matchup nightmare for Vanderbilt. Take a look at his points prop for tomorrow. It might be worth a play.
Sooners win this one comfortably at home. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 80 – Vanderbilt 71
UConn +7.5 : So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Could this be the game that Liam McNeeley returns? I doubt it. This is probably just a ploy by UConn to have Marquette prepare based on a maybe. However, I made this number 5.5 even without McNeeley. I will gladly jump in and make this a play. If McNeeley is activated, we are going to be sitting pretty with this number.
I believe that UConn’s biggest weakness could be hidden a bit in this matchup. The Huskies have put their opponents to the free throw line at an alarming rate this season. This has been a major reason for their “disappointing” season to this point. The Huskies rank 343rd in opponent free throw rate. Marquette’s inability to get to the line could be key in keeping UConn in this one. The Golden Eagles are only 333rd in getting to the stripe. This could be UConn’s saving grace.
Dan Hurley has owned Shaka since he arrived at Marquette. Hurley is 6-2 in these matchups, including 3-0 a season ago. I trust Hurley to have gameplan to keep us in this one. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Marquette 75 – UConn 70
Gonzaga +1 : The Zags have already flipped to a favorite here. I have been burned by the Gaels several times this year, but I have to continue to trust my evaluation and numbers. I think the Zags win this one.
Gonzaga’s metrics are well beyond what their record shows. The Zags are still 10th in KenPom with a 16-6 record. They are also 2nd in Shot Quality’s adjusted offensive rating (5th in KenPom). Their defense is also rated highly by ShotQuality and the Zags are 5th overall in the adjusted ShotQuality rating. Shot Quality also shows that the Saint Mary’s defense might not be as good as the surface numbers show. The Gaels only rank 48th in the adjusted Shot Quality defensive rating. Saint Mary’s has played a relatively easy schedule to this point. This might be the night that the defense gets exposed.
Mark Few & this group are very used to the atmosphere in Moraga. While it will get a little rowdy, it is still a small gym atmosphere. This was an “upset” spot (SMC was laying 3.5 at close) people were picking last year as well, and Gonzaga cruised to a 70-57 victory. I like Gonzaga to walk into Moraga and pull off another victory.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 75 – Saint Mary’s 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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