(photo: Craig Strobeck – Imagn Images)
24/25 Season Record: 197-166
2/11 Card :
- Auburn/Vanderbilt under 157.5 (7:00pm – SECN) (DK)
- BYU +2 (7:00pm – CBSSN) +
- UConn +4.5 (9:00pm – CBSSN) (DK) ***Best Bet***
- Pitt +5 (9:00pm – ACCN) +
- Oregon -8.5 (11:00pm – BTN) + ***Best Bet***
+ Given on X last night
————————————
Auburn/Vanderbilt under 157.5 : What a season it has been for our Commodores. There has been no let off since our Charleston Classic love affair. I think it has been understated just how awesome they have been on the defensive end of the court.
Yes, the Vanderbilt Commodores are the 3rd best defense in the country per Shot Quality’s adjusted rating. This unit is going to help keep us under the total tonight. Here are a few key areas from their SQ profile that I think can slow down Auburn from reaching the 90’s:
Defense Against 3PT Shooting: 4th
SQ PPP Allowed in Iso: 5th
Rim & 3 SQ PPP Allowed: 7th
Vanderbilt is also 17th in the country in turnover rate on offense. There are 4 point guards in this rotation. That will help keep Auburn out of their transition game. This under is going to Anchor Down.
Score Prediction: Auburn 80 – Vanderbilt 72
BYU +2 : This BYU team continues to be an analytical darling of mine. I did pick against them over the weekend, but it was against Cincinnati who I also strongly believe in analytically (they are finally turning it around!). I will gladly take the 2 points on the road here tonight against a Mountaineer team that is continuing to fall back to their baseline.
The Cougars offense is LEGIT. They are ranked 17th in KenPom & 18th in ShotQuality. The defense has caused some of their issues lately, but a SQ deep dive shows it is a bit of bad shot making luck from their opponents. BYU is still ranked 10th in the country in the adjusted defensive rating. When you have a team that is Top 20 in both units on SQ, you need to pay attention. Especially in a matchup with a Mountaineer team that has been over achieving. SQ ranks WVU 102nd in their adjusted offensive rating. KenPom is not far behind at 104th. They are still due for some regression even after their 2-4 slide. The DeVries injury is finally catching up to this team a bit.
I like BYU to come into Morgantown and pick-up a nice road win. Give me the two.
Score Prediction: BYU 70 – WVU 67
UConn +4.5 : Red Panda? Dollar Beer night? The hell with them. In all seriousness, Omaha will be electric tonight. I will not dispute that. I also appreciate the extra bump that I am getting on the spread due to this.
UConn let us down against the Johnnies on Friday. The Huskies just couldn’t shake the turnover bug after an electric start to the game. This was following a game where they turned it over 25 times against Marquette (still won). 47 turnovers in two games.
Howeverrrrrrrrrr .. if there is a team that can help you shake this bug, it is the Creighton Bluejays. Creighton is 360th out of 364 Division 1 basketball teams in turning their opponents over. This gives an immediate boost to UConn when handicapping this game. Their biggest weakness right now cannot be exploited.
UConn lost a very tight one to this Creighton team in Storrs about a month ago. Liam McNeeley is back now and I think that makes a massive difference in this matchup. He is a certified PTP’er.
With the addition of McNeeley and Creighton’s inability to force turnovers, I am not sure why we are seeing Creighton as a 4.5 point favorite here. Especially after UConn was laying 7.5 at home on January 18th without McNeeley. I made it Creighton -1 and would have leaned UConn there. I will gladly take the points and I think UConn wins a close one. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: UConn 73 – Creighton 71
Pitt +5 : This is about as low of a value as you will get on Pitt this year. Going 2-7 in your last 9 with the wins being Syracuse & UNC will do that to you. I cannot blame you guys if you don’t want to tail me here. However, I simply must play the number.
I love the fight that Damian Dunn brings to the game. The guy gives 110% every time he is out there. However, his injury may be addition by subtraction for the makeup of this Panthers team. Pitt was 2-7 in his return from his hand injury. You could tell it was still bothering him and the FG% also told that story. The fractured elbow against UNC will cost him the season. I wish him well on that recovery, but this injury might allow Pitt to get back into their grove that we saw earlier this season. The usage of Lowe and Leggett will rise back up and that is a very, very good thing.
SMU’s defensive SQ profile concerns me. They rank 305th in spacing allowed, 297th in shot making, 335th in defensive rebounding, and 309th in open three rate allowed. I think this 18-5 record may be a bit of smoke and mirrors. They have been kicking the shit out of the bottom of the horrible ACC. Here are the teams they have beaten in their 7-1 run in their last 8: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, NC State, Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech. They got blitzed by 25 points to Louisville who was the only Top 80 KenPom team they played during that stretch. I think Pitt will be able to keep this one close tonight. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: SMU 78 – Pitt 77
Oregon -8.5 : I really feel for Northwestern. It is a program that I have enjoyed watching over the last few seasons, but these injuries are just too much to overcome in the new age Big 10 gauntlet. Barnhizer and Leach meant way too much to this short rotation. This was a major reason why we backed Washington in a Best Bet spot the other night, and we were able to cash that one with relative ease.
Nick Martinelli is a phenomenal player. He just cannot handle the entire load by himself. Martinelli was gassed by the end of the Washington game and his effectiveness took a dip. Oregon has so many bodies they can send his way. Brandon Angel, Supreme Cook, Kwame Evans Jr. etc. I think it will be a long night for the Wildcats offensively if Martinelli 20+ FGA is still their gameplan (not sure what else it would be). I also think this is going to be a massive Nate Bittle game offensively for Oregon. Northwestern got blasted on the boards and around the rim by Osobor and the Huskies. Nicholson is the only line of defense in the frontcourt & on the glass for the Wildcats. I expect him to have massive issues tonight.
Oregon has been playing better than their recent results have showed. They melted the big lead away at Sparty over the weekend, but that was still graded as an 82-72 ShotQuality win. The Ducks will let out all of the frustrations from their losing skid out on Northwestern tonight. Maybe check some alt lines if you are into that sort of thing. This is my 2nd Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Oregon 77 – Northwestern 63
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 