(photo: MSN)
24/25 Season Record: 211-175
2/18 Card :
- Oklahoma +14 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (Caesars)
- Purdue +3.5 (7:00pm – Peacock) (DK) **Best Bet**
- Mississippi State -2.5 (7:00pm – SECN) (DK) **Best Bet**
- Illinois +4.5 (8:30pm – FS1) (MGM)
- Nevada +4 (9:00pm – MWN) (Caesars)
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Oklahoma +14 : The Sooners are a good basketball team. The SEC gauntlet has plummeted Oklahoma down to a 3-9 conference record, but I still have major trust in this team analytically. Especially on offense. Check out some of their fantastic rankings courtesy of ShotQuality (use promo code: SNIPER25 .. for a discount on your first purchase)
This profile should keep the Sooners around long enough to cover this big spread. I believe in that because I have a good feeling that the Sooners are going to be able to neutralize some of the Florida 3PT attack that the Gators have been bludgeoning opponents with. Not only does Oklahoma shoot it well from 3, they can also defend it. The Sooners rank 11th in the country in opponent three point percentage per KenPom. They are also Top 60 in both offensive and defensive Rim & 3 ShotQuality PPP. I expect our Gators to more than likely win this game with ease at the end, but don’t be surprised if Oklahoma hangs around for a while.
Score Prediction: Florida 84 – Oklahoma 74
Purdue +3.5 : Buy low time on the Boilers. Purdue is coming off of 2 straight losses & traveling to East Lansing against a Sparty team that just punked Illinois in primetime on Saturday night. Yet, we only see a 3.5 spread. You know the drill.
Braden Smith is undefeated against the Spartans in his career. That’s not changing tonight.
Braden has been one of the better guards in the pick & roll that I have ever seen in the college game. That is not an exaggeration. It is mesmerizing to watch. I think that Michigan State could have a ton of trouble with this tonight. From my eye test, they have struggled a bit in these scenarios and apply drop coverages quite often. That is not a recipe for success against Braden. I did some digging & ShotQuality confirmed my inclinations.
With this matchup advantage, I am going to take the Boilermakers with the points tonight. I think this will be a tight game down the stretch and I will gladly take a full possession cushion. I think Purdue squeaks out a close on on the road. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Purdue 76 – Michigan State 72
Mississippi State -2.5 : The Bulldogs will finally win a game at the Hump. I repeat .. The Bulldogs will finally win a game at the Hump. Mississippi State has dropped three in a row at home. That losing streak ends tonight.
Texas A&M is a very fun team to follow and pull for. They always give their all and the games tend to get hectic & exciting. I do worry about their Shot Quality profile a tad though for a long term success perspective. For starters, ShotQuality shows that Texas A&M is receiving a bit of luck on the defensive end. They are allowing 0.98 PPP and SQ expects that to be closer to 1.07. That is some serious regression that could be heading their way shortly. Also, take a look at these dreadful ranks on SQ:
- 348th in Transition Efficiency
- 358th in Defense Against Shots Attacking the Rim
- 347th in Three Point Efficiency
- 354th in Three Point Rate Allowed
The Aggies are getting away with all of this by offensive rebounding (1st in the country), turning over their opponents, and getting to the line. Mississippi State will be able to hold their own in these departments tonight I believe. The Bulldogs are one of my analytical darlings that I always speak of. This team is 19th in SQ adjusted offensive rating, and 7th defensively. They are also Top 40 in offensive rebounding, not turning the ball over, and shots attacking the rim. Key areas as we saw above that lends me to believe they can win this game tonight. I think the regression monster comes out to play on A&M defensively. Mississippi State wins a big one. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Mississippi State 76 – Texas A&M 69
Illinois +4.5 : The Illinois flatline from Saturday night isn’t going to scare me away today. ShotQuality graded that out as a win for the Illini. A large helping of fluky results from the looks they got over those final 7 minutes spiraled that game away. My judgement of this team has not changed at all.
This is one of the tougher matchups in the Big 10 for John Tonje in my opinion. I would expect him to draw a matchup with Will Riley for the majority of this game. Riley is flying under the radar due to the exceptional freshmen class we have in the game, but this dude needs more shine.
Tonje was only 5-15 from the field in the first meeting against the Illini this season. Riley wasn’t getting as much run as he is now, so I think adding more of him to the defensive mix could cause Tonje additional problems. I also think that Kasparas Jakucionis is unguardable with the defenders that Wisconsin has at their disposal. He went for 24 in the first meeting, and I think we see more of the same today. This is one of those rare scenarios in a conference season where I am sure that a team of “equal quality” has a matchup edge and will run a double on a conference opponent. Not overthinking it here. Give me the points with the Illini. I think they win a close one.
Score Prediction: Illinois 82 – Wisconsin 80
Nevada +4 : The Wolfpack are going to own the glass in this matchup. Nevada is 5th in the country in average height of their rotation per KenPom, and Colorado State is 197th. The Rams are only 266th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Nevada comes in at 31st in defensive rebounding. With the perceived minimal opportunity for second chance points for Colorado State, I think Nevada can hang tight in this one.
Nevada has had a really disappointing season. Many were thinking this team had a chance for an at-large bid in the preseason. I do think they have potentially turned a corner though. The competition has been weak, but Nevada is on a 4 game win streak. The last three have been in blowout fashion. Is this team finally reaching it’s potential?! I think it is certainly possible. The field goal percentage on offense is through the roof, and the clamps are finally coming down again defensively. Give me the points tonight in game that I think will come down to the wire.
Score Prediction: Colorado State 69 – Nevada 67
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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