(photo: X / @umterps)
24/25 Season Record: 226-181
2/26 Card :
- UConn -12.5 (6:30pm – FS1) +
- Maryland -3.5 (6:30pm – BTN) + **Best Bet**
- Auburn -12.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) +
- Furman -15.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) + **Best Bet**
- Penn State/Indiana over 149.5 (8:30pm – BTN) (DK)
+ given last night on X
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UConn -12.5 : KenPom has this game as an 8 point spread. The opener was always going to be a tick high due to the spot, but then we also received this news yesterday..
I gladly jumped at the opener of 12.5 last night after digesting this news. On the surface, it appears that UConn won a semi-close game back in January at Georgetown. A 68-60 final. However, that scoreline is very misleading. The Huskies were up 23 with 8 minutes to go & it was one of those games where UConn didn’t score for the final 3 or 4 minutes & Georgetown was able to garbage it up to make it look respectable. Thomas Sorber was a real factor in that game (as he always is). He was able to grab 5 of team’s 11 offensive rebounds and record 4 of the team’s 6 blocks. His absence is going to be greatly missed in this one. Especially on the offensive end against a foul happy Tarris Reed Jr and Samson Johnson. UConn continues to rank near the bottom of the country in free throw rate allowed. This appears to be a good matchup though. Georgetown is 354th in free throw rate & Sorber had 105 of the team’s 411 attempts on the season.
I love the spot & I love the matchup against the Hoyas without Sorber. Happy to lay the big number here.
Score Prediction: UConn 78 – Georgetown 61
Maryland -3.5 : College Park is going to be an inferno. This will be B1G home court at it’s finest. That is definitely a big player in my handicap tonight.
The Terps are going to have a massive advantage from behind the arc. The Spartans come into this game 335th in 3point rate and 349th in 3point make percentage. Maryland ranks 30th in the country in 3point make percentage. ShotQuality shows that this isn’t fluky. The Terps are 26th and 29th in Off of the Dribble and Catch & Shoot 3PT SQ PPP. Maryland is averaging 9 three pointers made per game at the Xfinity Center, and I think they touch double digits tonight.
Maryland also has in the answer in the post that most do not against the deep Michigan State frontline. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are arguably the best frontcourt tandem in the country (I can already hear the Vlad and Danny truthers coming at me – I said arguably!). They are both averaging over 9 rebounds per game on the season and I believe they will be able to score & board enough to let the 3 point barrage take over.
Rodney Rice has taken his scoring to the next level after this moment in Bloomington.
His shot making is adding a completely different dimension to this Maryland team. I think they are one of the best starting 5’s in the country with Rice in this form. I will lay the short number tonight as a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Maryland 82 – Michigan State 72
Auburn -12.5 : Welcome to the Jungle baby!
I fear for the profile of the Rebels traveling on the road to Neville tonight.
Some of the warts on their ShotQuality resume (promo code: SNIPER25) are listed above. That is not going to get it done on the road at Neville. The low frequency attacking the rim is one of most concern for me. If you take a look at KenPom, Ole Miss is only 145th in the country in effective field goal %. The Auburn defense ranks 9th. The Tigers offense continues to chart out on KenPom and ShotQuality on a historic level. I just don’t see any way Ole Miss keeps up tonight. It’s been a few weeks since Auburn has delivered a real beat down. I smell one coming tonight. Lay it.
Score Prediction: Auburn 87 – Ole Miss 69
Furman -15.5 : A good ole fashioned Senior Night ass kicking coming your way from upstate South Carolina! Bob Richey continues to have one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The Paladins have eclipsed the 20 win mark for the 6th time in his 8 years at the helm. The Citadel has fallen all the way to 354th in KenPom. This is going to be a bludgeoning.
The Citadel offense will not be able to keep up in this one. The Bulldogs have been playing teams tough recently, but their analytics are going to catchup in a big way tonight. The Citadel ranks 352nd in the Shot Quality adjusted offensive rating. SQ also shows that they are due for regression on their measly 0.97 PPP on the season to 0.95. Furman sits at 1.09 PPP on the season and Shot Quality shows that they should be even better at 1.10.
This will likely turn into a three point contest and The Citadel will lose that battle. The Bulldogs continue to be at 49th in the country in 3PT rate while being 344th in the country in 3PT %. Maybe try adapting to your personnel?! Furman ranks 4th in the country at 3PT rate and makes them at a 34.2% clip. This is going to be an ass kicking. Not overthinking it. Laying the big number for my 2nd Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Furman 84 – Citadel 60
Penn State/Indiana over 149.5 : Both of these teams seem a bit rejuvenated after a brutal middle stretch of conference season. I think that lends itself to an inspired performance on the offensive end from both sides tonight.
These teams met on January 5th at The Palestra and scored a total of 148 points. They were able to reach this total even with Penn State going through a 9ish minute drought of scoring only 2 points. The pace and FT attempts from the previous matchup are similar to my thinking for tonight’s game. Penn State continues to be one of the faster paced teams in the country. Ace Baldwin gets this team out and running and they are 44th in tempo per KenPom. Indiana has been a pace chameleon this year, but that has mostly been dictated by their opponents. I think that happens again tonight and we get a higher scoring game. I will take the over.
Score Prediction: Indiana 79 – Penn State 74
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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