(photo: Kendall Warner / Daily Press)
Brackets are back! Time to hunker down for the next month and win baby, win. We are going to keep the same model as years passed. One unit placed on each conference winning ticket for recording purposes. Play these however you’d like. Let’s bag another winning conference tournament season!
Sun Belt: James Madison +380 (DK)
The Dukes have gone through a complete roster overhaul & head coaching change from their lovable team from a season ago. JMU was a sexy pick to bag a first round upset in the Big Dance last year, and they delivered on that prediction. The Dukes knocked off Wisconsin as a #12 seed before bowling out in the 2nd round against Duke. A lot of the general public has dismissed JMU this year after the overhaul mentioned above. Not so fast my friend. The Dukes have reloaded. Preston Spradlin is a fantastic head coach. He is coming off of two NCAA tournament births with Morehead State over the past four years, and he knows what it takes to win a conference tournament. This is a top 100 offense in KenPom led by a three-headed backcourt monster of Mark Freeman, Bryce Lindsay and Xavier Brown. The Dukes also have a massive post presence in 6’11 Elijah Hutchins-Everett. JMU had won 10 (TEN!!) conference games in a row before losing to Texas State in double OT in their finale. This team is hot at the right time and got their loss out of the way. The Sun Belt also rewards the top seeds with significant byes. As the 2 seed, JMU will not play until the semifinal. Also, South Alabama and Arkansas State are on the other side of the bracket. At +380 I think this is fantastic value. Give me the Dukes.
Patriot League: Pass
I lean the favorite in Bucknell, but Colgate probably finds a way as they always do. The American/Colgate game will be a fun one. No conference winner ticket for this conference, but will likely get involved on a single game betting perspective.
NEC (Northeast): Pass
Central Connecticut likely wins as the favorite. Not laying the juice there.
Horizon League: Milwaukee +280 (DK)
This team has what it takes to run through a conference tournament. Don’t believe me? Believe the analytics.
This profile is courtesy of ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). The Panthers are #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. #1! They are finally fully healthy and I believe they are poised to dominate the glass throughout the entirety of this Horizon tournament. This is a team who has won 5 out of 6, including a win over their first round opponent – Oakland. Yes, Oakland. Sorry everyone. The lovable Golden Grizzlies will bow out in the first round of the Horizon this year. The Panthers are too much for them around the rim. Milwaukee grabbed 16 offensive rebounds and shot 33 free throws against Oakland a week ago. Per the profile above, that is very repeatable. A win gets us to a semi against Youngstown State/PFW. I like the Panthers against either team. I will take the +280 here.
Ohio Valley Conference: Pass
Enjoy the madness here, folks. Your guess is as good as mine in this conference. It should be entertaining!
Big South: Pass
The High Point price is too rich. I really hope they win. We have been high on this team since the preseason. I would love to see what kind of matchup they would get slotted with in the Big Dance. This team has R64/R32 upset potential.
Summit League: South Dakota State +300 (DK)
I considered taking a stab at North Dakota State here, but the injury doubt of Jacksen Moni pulled me away from the Bison. South Dakota State was the team I predicted to meet the Bison in the final (pre-Moni injury update), so I have no problem playing South Dakota State here. Oscar Cluff instantly becomes the most feared player in this tournament with the injury to Moni. The Washington State transfer has absolutely dominated the glass in conference play and currently sits 2nd nationally in rebounds per game. Cluff and the Jackrabbits are the class of the league in the interior.
They have bolstered their national ranks in conference play and this is where they are ranked in key areas per Shot Quality. I like their side of the Summit League bracket. St. Thomas was an incredible team at home this year, but struggled at times on the road. This tournament is played in Sioux Falls and will be a big time pro-Jackrabbit crowd. I think that matters. I’ll take the +300 here.
Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness): Illinois State +1800 (Caesars)
There it is. Our first big time long shot of the conference tournament season. It is time for our Redbirds to put the world on notice. Don’t worry, Drake will get their at-large bid. This Illinois State team is supremely talented (relative to The Valley). Chase Walker is one of the best post-players in The Valley. They have an excellent inside/out game featuring Walker because the team shoots 38% from 3 and 75% from the stripe. This is a team that has knocked off Bradley and Belmont this year, and had a tonnnn of close losses that went against them against the class of the league. They lost 6 games to to the Top 4 seeds in the league by a combined 21 points. They have proven that they can compete at the highest level in the league and I will gladly take this longshot play on them. The Redbirds open with Missouri State who I think they will easily get by. They will then matchup with Belmont in the quarters. I think this is a great matchup for Illinois State. The Redbirds lost in OT by 2 points to Belmont in December, and avenged that loss at home in late January. I like Illinois State in the rubber match. Then you get the mighty Drake Bulldogs in the semis. I think we have a punchers chance there. Let’s get crazy, Arch Madness.
West Coast Conference: Gonzaga -120 (DK)
Like the Sun Belt, Gonzaga is slotted into the semifinals of the WCC Tournament. I think that the two teams that can cause problems in this tournament are on the opposite side of the bracket with Saint Mary’s (Oregon State & Santa Clara). I think Saint Mary’s has the potential to slip up against one of those teams, and I think Gonzaga cruises in their semifinal game. Gonzaga will be favored against whoever meets them in the final. Even if it is the Gaels, no way it is happening for a third time. Give me the Zags.
SOCON (Southern Conference): Pass
This conference is wide open. We will definitely be involved from a single game perspective, but no clear value on a winner here in my opinion.
Big Sky: Montana +310 (DK)
We had to get involved in Starch Madness, right? Montana is the play here. Hot at the right time is an understatement. The Grizzlies are entering the Big Sky tournament winning 11 of their last 12 conference games. I like their side of the bracket in comparison to UNC (the other one), however these two very likely meet in the final. I will gladly take Montana +310.
Southland Conference: Pass
McNeese in a landslide. Not interested in laying the big number.
Colonial: Charleston +350 (FD)
Towson was a fantastic regular season story, but Charleston is the class of this league and will prove it in the tournament setting. This is my favorite ticket.
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More to come as they are released..
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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