(photo: Marquette University)
24/25 Season Record: 253-193
3/8 Card :
- St. John’s/Marquette over 141.5 (12:00pm – Fox) + **Best Bet**
- NC State/Miami over 149.5 (12:00pm – CW Network) (FD)
- Tennessee -15.5 (2:00pm – SECN) + **Best Bet**
- UConn -18 (2:30pm – Fox) +
- Kansas -3 (4:30pm -ESPN) +
+ given last night on X
If you would like to leave a thank you from the recent hot streak, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
————————————
St. John’s/Marquette over 141.5 : It looks like we will receive some nice CLV to get our day started. This number is touching 145.5 at some places. Glad we got in early.
I cannot state enough how fucking awesome Kam Jones is. The way he has completely remodeled his game post-Kolek is amazing to me. Jones never averaged over 2.4 assists in any of his first three years at Marquette. He is now averaging 6 assists per game this year. That is good for 20th nationally. More importantly, Kam is boasting a 3.35 assist/turnover ratio. That is 5th nationally! He has transformed himself into one of the best true point guards in the country.
The assist/turnover ratio is going to be very important today against one of the better defenses in the country. Marquette is 7th in the country in protecting the ball. You have to limit turnovers to have any kind of offensive success against St. John’s. Kam is going to be instrumental in getting us to the number we need. It is going to be a legendary Senior Day performance.
I also see a path for the Johnnies to score today. It is going to be a bloodbath on the boards in favor of the Red Storm. Marquette ranks 252nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage & that is the main reason they lost their most recent game to the Huskies. UConn outrebounded Marquette 19-8 on the offensive glass. It will be more of the same today. St. John’s ranks 9th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
I love the spot for this over. I love the matchup edges that we have. I love the soft & silky rims at Fiserv. What’s not to love? Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Marquette 76 – St. John’s 72
NC State/Miami over 149 : I have to give a shoutout to Stuckey for bringing this game to my attention earlier in the week.
I immediately started digging and fell in love with the over here. Miami has legitimately quit on the defensive end. I know that was a funny thing to say for most of the season, but it cannot be disputed at this point. The Canes rank near last in D1 in defensive efficiency over their last 5. They have allowed their last 4 opponents to shoot at least 52.5% from the field and are allowing 89.8 ppg over those four. They are a walking layup line.
NC State has also lost their bite defensively after following all the way out of the ACC Tournament. No magic run to the Final Four this year for Keatts. The Wolfpack have allowed 78.8 ppg over their last 5. Well above their season average.
There is no postseason on the horizon for either team after today. With the new mega conference model, teams like this don’t even get a chance to win their conference tournament in a league like the ACC. This is going to have an open gym feel, & I suspect we get a higher scoring affair with very little defensive intensity. Give me this gross (holy shit is it gross) over.
Score Prediction: NC State 78 – Miami 76
Tennessee -15.5 : Lord forgive me for this one. It’s always Forever To Thee.
South Carolina is a team that has cashed multiple Best Bets for us over the last few weeks. The Gamecocks are at the bottom of the conference, but they have been scrappy as hell at home. They printed money for us at Colonial Life Arena. When this team leaves the CLA, it is a different story. The Gamecocks are 0-8 on the road in the SEC losing by an average of 18.4 ppg. This includes a 14 point loss to the other cellar dwellers, LSU. South Carolina is going to really struggle to score today. Tennessee has moved all the way up to #2 in the country in effective FG% allowed per KenPom. They are also 1st in the SEC in shot selection allowed per ShotQuality. The Gamecocks rank 266th in effective FG% per KenPom, and are 11th in shot selection in the the SEC per SQ. Matchup. Edge.
Tennessee continues to have one of the better homecourt advantages in the country year after year. I like this spot for Senior Day. There is also a world where Tennessee could still snag the last 1 seed. It would be very difficult and they would need help, but a win today and and SECT crown could potentially get them there. There is incentive to put some style points out there today. Let’s BCS this shit. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 78 – South Carolina 56
UConn -18 : This one is personal for Dan Hurley. The Seton Hall alum has struggled with the Pirates in his coaching career. This includes a loss earlier this season that was a major blow to the Huskies resume. You could see on the broadcast how heated he was to be losing once again to Seton Hall. I think we are going to get unrelenting revenge today.
This is definitely a spot angle. We will likely see one of the better versions of UConn that we have all year long in a Senior Day atmosphere against Hurley’s alma mater.
However, analytics on our our side as well. We took 18 here and KenPom actually has this as a 17 point game on it’s own analytical merit without any other factors at play. The Seton Hall offense continues to be one of the worst watches in the game. The Pirates are now 359th in the country in ShotQuality PPP in the halfcourt. UConn is up to 22nd in defending in the halfcourt. That is going to be a death sentence in what will be an inferno atmosphere today. The ShotQuality regression model also shows that this is Seton Hall’s PPP true form based on the shots they are getting. This one is going to get ugly. Quick. I feel confident laying it here.
Score Prediction: UConn 81 – Seton Hall 57
Kansas -3 : This is the spot of all spots. Kansas needs this like they need air to breathe. They are going to get it.
Kansas really showed me something in the Houston game. They got absolutely battered on the turnover and offensive rebounding margin, but never gave up and kept one of the best teams in the country at arm’s length on the road. This team isn’t giving up. I feel confident back them in a rocking Senior Day – Allen Fieldhouse atmosphere today. They are graduating some stalwarts of this program over the last few years. The crowd will back them in a big way.
It might be Regression Monster time for Arizona.
This is the Regression Analysis on Arizona courtesy of ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). The defensive profile is very concerning. Especially the Finishing at the Rim and Midrange numbers. Kansas is 6th in the country per ShotQuality in finishing at the rim. Hunter Dickinson and the Jayhawks are the team that is going to bring that regression to the mean. The Wildcats are due for a tick of offensive regression as well. Kansas is still KenPom’s 6th ranked defense in regards to adjusted efficiency. We are going to party with the Regression Monster at the best venue in college basketball. Let’s lay the short number here.
Score Prediction: Kansas 78 – Arizona 72
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 