(photo: Gators Wire)
Welcome to 2025 Three Point Sniper NCAA Tournament Preview!
What a year it has been, fellas! Our community keeps getting larger and larger every year that we do this. It is so damn fun to see the engagement every time I hit submit on a winning post on X. Y’all rock. We currently have a season record of 278-222 (55.6%). Another monster season added to the books. That momentum is carrying us into the tournament where we have gone 62-36 in the last two seasons. I am fired up to get this thing rolling!
There is no perfect science when it comes to this tournament. That is why we love it. I just hope the preview below is a tool that you can use to put your best foot forward with brackets, pools, etc. I will certainly be using it for handicapping. Hopefully we are on the right track with the analytics backing our decision making.
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NCAA Tournament Title Winner
We started the tradition of riding a title winning future together as a group two seasons ago.. and damn has it been a fun ride! One team, one bet. 2023 started this off in a BIG way. We placed a 16-1 ticket on UConn prior to the 2023 tournament. We literally didn’t have to sweat a single game. It was the most fun that I have had wagering in my life. Going 27-12 in the same tournament also helped. Tennessee was our pick last year. We made it to the Elite 8 before bowing out to Zach Edey.
I do have some bad news for the new members to the 3PS community this year though. I am breaking the tradition in Year 3. I will not be placing a wager on a title winner due to the massive success we had in the preseason market (receipts above). Guys, we have the number 2 team in KenPom at fucking 60-1. We also have the number 3 team in KenPom at 15-1. I apologize to the new followers that I have picked up this season who missed out on these numbers, but I cannot place another future with the situation we are in. I also truly think that Florida and Houston are the two best teams in the country. We have these tickets on opposite sides of the bracket. There is a world where we have 60-1 vs 15-1 in the national title game. With Florida’s performance in Nashville, you are lying to yourself if you don’t think this is currently the best team in the country. The Gator’s form is reminding me of our 2023 Huskies (& 2024 for that matter). The offensive outputs we are seeing are no fluke.
This is Florida’s ShotQuality Regression Analysis (SQ promo code: SNIPER25) on the offensive end. The scary part is that SQ actually expects them to be a tad better. I don’t think it matters who is in their way right now. I am riding with who got us here. Go Gators. (Houston would be cool too)
2025 NCAA Tournament Champion: Florida Gators (+6000 preseason)
Three Point Sniper Seed Matrix
In this section we are going to uncover who is seeded improperly based on analytics mixed with my own personal power ratings that I use for handicapping. This will help you with picking upsets in your bracket + selecting who to fade from a betting perspective. It will also identify teams that we can take round futures on (S16, E8, F4). Thank you to our friends at KenPom and ShotQuality (SQ promo code: SNIPER25). I am combining their adjusted team ratings (the best out there) with my own personal power ratings. All three are weighted equally to develop the 3PS Seed Matrix score. I will then compare this against the 1-64 seeds released by the committee to see where the biggest variances are. Here is what I uncovered:
Seeded Too Low Per Metrics:
Gonzaga: True Seed: 30 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 8 (+22)
North Carolina: True Seed: 46 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 32 (+14)
Xavier: True Seed: 42 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 34 (+8)
Louisville: True Seed: 29 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 21 (+8)
Kansas: True Seed: 28 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 20 (+8)
**Honorable Mention: Texas Tech’s seed line is keeping the variance lower than the ones mentioned above, but they are the 5th best team in the tournament per the 3PS Matrix. Seeded 9th by the committee. Elite 8 lock?
Seeded Too High Per Metrics:
Memphis: True Seed: 20 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 48 (-28) … Special one here. Colorado State is 42nd in the 3PS Seed Matrix. This is a 12-5 you definitely want to take a shot with in your bracket. Especially with the injury news on Tyrese Hunter. Fire up the Rams.
St. John’s: True Seed: 8 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 18 (-10)
Oregon: True Seed: 19 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 29 (-10)
Michigan: True Seed 17 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 26 (-9)
Michigan State: True Seed 7 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 14 (-7)
**Special KenPom nugget pointed out by Rico Bosco featuring two teams in this category. History and the 3PS Seed Matrix are not on the side of the Spartans and Johnnies making a run to San Antonio.
First Round Upset Alert – Vegas Edition
Memphis is on high alert for an upset based on seeding. However, Vegas is sharp to this. Colorado State is favored in the game. Let’s talk about some teams who might be on outright upset alert at the books. I know you sickos love your ML parlays. (Please gamble responsibly)
UCLA: This would only be a 10 over a 7, but Utah State is very live in this game. The Bruins have a -5 variance in the 3PS Seed Matrix. Utah State is the #17 offense in KenPom. They are also 17th in Rim&3 rate per Shot Quality. I like their chances to compete against the stout Bruins defense. I have played Utah State +5 and think they can win this game outright.
Marquette: Another 10 over 7 scenario here with a Mountain West team as the dog. We are going to have to trust the data (shoutout Cheah) as opposed to recent Mountain West performances in this tournament. New Mexico will be just fine with the pace Marquette wants to play. The Lobos actually have the higher tempo per KenPom. New Mexico also boasts a Top 20 KenPom defense. This team is more well rounded than you might think. I have played +4 on the Lobos and think they win the game. Donovan Dent will become a household name very soon. Having a star to match the firepower of Kam Jones is important here.
UConn: I really thought the Huskies would break through at MSG. It’s just not happening. Don’t bet Oklahoma yet if you are interested. The Huskies will see plenty of public money over the next few days and we will get a better price. These teams are slotted right next to each other in the 3PS Seed Matrix. Oklahoma can take advantage of the fouling problem that UConn has. The Huskies are 333rd in opponent free throw rate. Oklahoma is 32nd in the country in percentage of points from free throws, and are 9th in the country in free throw percentage. This is a one point game on KenPom. The Sooners are a live dog to win outright. I will likely get to the window before this tips on the OU spread. Jeremiah Fears Forever.
Michigan: Vegas is all over this, so you won’t see much value here. UC San Diego has a real chance to pull off this upset. Michigan is overseeded per the 3PS Seed Matrix. The fluff that national outlets are putting out there as the Wolverines being under-seeded for winning the Big 10 tournament is not accurate. The major turnover problem that Michigan has could haunt the Wolverines in a big way here. UCSD is 2nd in the country in turning over their opponents per KenPom (also 7th in not turning it over on offense), and Michigan is 328th in turning over the ball. I doubt I get to the window here, but wanted to mention it.
Oregon: The metrics hate Oregon as you saw in the 3PS Seed Matrix. Dana Altman in March is not something I like to fade, but can he bring out the best in this team when it matters the most? I am not sure at this point. I likely won’t get involved in this game, but a 6 point spread stinks to the high heavens. The Flames are worth a look at the current number. Not sure they have enough to pull off the outright, but the books are suggesting it is in the realm of possibility.
Illinois & Ole Miss: Hold on to your asses, Illini & Rebs fans. We don’t have spreads yet because the First Four games have to materialize, but both of these teams should be on upset alert from whoever makes it out of Dayton to face them. This is the strongest group of 11’s in the First Four that I have ever seen from a metrics perspective.
Tournament Round Futures
Sweet 16 Longshots:
VCU +400 (DK): This defense is nasty. The Rams rank 23rd in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. They are also #1 in the country in effective FG % allowed on defense. It is a tough draw with BYU and Wisconsin, but worth a look.
New Mexico +500 (DK): As we spoke about earlier, I believe the Lobos are poised to upset Marquette. This brings a likely draw with Michigan State in Round 2. The Spartans are one of the biggest overseeds per the 3PS Seed Matrix. This is also worth a look.
I haven’t got to the window yet on these, but certainly wanted to bring those to your attention. I will post on X if I ever post a S16 or E8 future play. I do think it is worth noting that I truly believe this is the first time since 2008 where getting all of the 1 seeds to San Antonio is seriously in play. There is a massive gap after Florida, Houston, Duke & Auburn. I don’t see many flaws in these teams other than the injuries to Cooper Flagg and J’Wan Roberts. It does sound like both will be ready to go this weekend, so I am not overly concerned. We will always have craziness in the first few rounds, but I suspect the Final Four will be very, very chalky this year.
That’ll be it for this preview. Good luck with all of your wagering and pools this week everyone. Let’s make this tournament the best one yet!
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