(photo: Jeff Hunter / Desert News)
24/25 Season Record: 279-222
2025 NCAA Tournament: 1-0
3/20 Card :
- Creighton +2.5 (12:15pm – CBS) (DK)
- High Point +9 (12:40pm – truTV) +
- Montana/Wisconsin over 148.5 (1:30pm – TNT) +
- McNeese +7.5 (3:15pm – truTV) + **Best Bet**
- VCU +2.5 (4:05pm – TNT) (FD)
- Georgia +6.5 (4:35pm – TBS) (FD)
- Texas A&M -7 (7:25pm – TBS) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
- Mizzou -6 (7:35pm – truTV) (Caesars)
- Utah State +5 (9:25pm – TNT) + **Best Bet**
+ given on Sunday
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Creighton +2.5 : Ryan Kalkbrenner is going to completely control the paint on both ends of the court in this game. I worry about Louisville’s rim protection here. They really struggled at the rim against Maluach last time out. James Scott is the only resistance on the defensive end for the Cards against Kalk, and he has been in foul trouble constantly over the last month. Scott has recorded at least 4 fouls in three out of the last five games, and fouled out of the most recent game against Duke. Kalkbrenner is literally never in foul trouble and will have free rolls to the basket consistently without Scott on the court. I think the Jays are in a great spot defensively in this game as well. Creighton ranks 1st in the country in Shot Selection allowed per ShotQuality (SQ promo code: SNIPER25), and they are also 2nd in Rim & 3 rate allowed. I mentioned it with Kalk earlier, but the Jays also just don’t foul at all as a team. They are #1 in the country in free throw rate allowed to their opponents. They are going to force many threes from this Louisville team (who will gladly take them), and I think that will be a recipe for success after they dominate the paint and the free throw battle. Louisville is 216th in the country in 3PT %, but are 19th in 3Point rate. Creighton will let them to fire away from deep and control everything else. Creighton’s ability to make threes give us a chance to win in all three phases of the box score (2pt, 3pt, FT). I like our chances at the tiny upset.
Score Prediction: Creighton 75 – Louisville 70
High Point +9 : This High Point player performance snapshot is courtesy of the ShotQuality March Madness primer (this thing is really fucking cool – go buy it)
In a nutshell, the Panthers can fill it up. This bench is very deep for a team from the Big South, and it is almost impossible to find a blemish on their KenPom or ShotQuality resume’s from an offensive perspective. High Point has the 25th best offense in the KenPom adjusted efficiency rating and are 12th in effective field goal percentage. Here is also a quick ShotQuality snapshot of other areas they excel at.
This high powered offense is going to be trouble for a reeling Purdue defense. Bodo Bodo is going to have a field day at the rim. Purdue has fallen all of the way to 350th in defending shots at the rim per ShotQuality. There is absolutely no rim protection. I also like High Point to compete heavily with Purdue from the three point line. That has been a weapon that has kept Purdue afloat, but High Point is 25th per SQ in defending the three point line.
I like High Point to keep this one within 9 points, but this is not an outright upset situation in my opinion. The High Point interior and transition defense is too flawed. Braden Smith will have his way with this Panther defense. I am just convinced that High Point can score enough on the struggling Purdue defense to keep us within the number here. It looks like we will receive some nice CLV after locking in on Sunday night. This will be a fun one to watch.
Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – High Point 76
Montana/Wisconsin over 148.5 : We are cruising to some awesome CLV here as well. The Sunday work paid off!
It is so awesome to see how Greg Gard has evolved and changed a lot of his prior principles to become a dynamic offensive program. The Badgers offense is legit. The three point rate is what I am really excited about in this matchup. Wisconsin comes into this Round of 64 game ranked 18th in the country in three point rate. This rate was actually, believe it or not, getting blown out of the water in Indy. The Badgers took 100 threes in three games. One hundred. ShotQuality ranks Montana at 336th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed. KenPom has the Griz at 319th in the country in opponent percentage of points allowed from three. It is going to be bombs away in this one from Wisconsin. Montana also is 156th in the country in opponent free throw rate. Wisconsin remains #1 in free throw percentage. There are plenty of paths for Wisconsin to score.
Montana is a decent little mid-major offense. Shot Quality ranks them 25th in efficiency attacking them rim and 62nd in efficient three point shooting. They are not due for any regression at all on their 1.12 PPP on the season. Wisconsin will definitely be a step-up in competition, but I think their recent hot streak will be plenty enough to get us over the total we locked in on Sunday.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 87 – Montana 67
McNeese +7.5 : This dog is live. Not enough people are talking about the injury to Dillon Hunter.
His impact goes way beyond the box score. The ball handling, passing and defensive court presence will be greatly missed in this matchup with McNeese. The Clemson backcourt now essentially is 2-deep. It is a great two, but McNeese is going to have a field day with their defensive pressure on Jake Heidbreder & Del Jones when they enter into the game. The Cowboys rank 18 in the country in forcing turnovers and are 11th in steal percentage. They are also 20th in frequency of getting out into transition on offense. I think their pace and physicality could rack up fouls on Chase Hunter and Jaeden Zackery and put the Tigers in a world of hurt with no depth.
McNeese left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last year after getting blasted by Gonzaga in the R64, but I feel that this year is a better version of the Cowboys. KenPom agrees. They are ranked 8 spots higher than a year ago when they went 30-4. Will Wade (Clemson alum & admitted fan) is a fantastic coach that can gameplan to win a game like this. He also just agreed to terms with NC State so all of that speculation is put to bed now. It is all about finishing strong as a unit before they all depart lovely Lake Charles. Clemson probably wins a very tight on here, but it is going to be a nail biter. SQ’s predicted score is 73.1-69.7. I see this one coming down to the final possession. Another clutch end of game shot from Chase Hunter? I wouldn’t rule it out. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Clemson 68 – McNeese 66
VCU +2.5 : A beautiful clash of styles that we have here in Denver. VCU is #1 in the country in effective FG% on defense. BYU is #7 in the country in effective FG% on offense. Both teams are full of veterans and have a ton of experience. The difference? VCU’s Offense > BYU’s Defense.
The Rams get praised constantly for their defensive presence, but their offense is pretty damn good as well. The Rams are 45th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. They are also 12th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. The BYU defense has several holes that the Rams expose. The Cougars are 166th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Not great. They also are 331st in opponent three point rate allowed and are 242nd in opponent three point percentage.
I like VCU’s advantage with the secondary units in this one. I am very confident with the ball in Max Shulga’s hands in a close game. Give me the points with the Rams. I think they win outright.
Score Prediction: VCU 75 – BYU 71
Georgia +6.5 : Gonzaga has been penciled into the 2nd round in every bracket in America outside of Athens, GA. Are we sure that Gonzaga is that much better than Georgia? You know that I am a slut for analytics, and boy are those in Gonzaga’s favor … but I am not seeing where the 6.5 point gap is here on a neutral. Asa Newell is a very, very bad matchup for the Gonzaga bigs. His physicality and athleticism will be a real problem.
Georgia is very underrated in my opinion. They just beat Florida a few weeks ago! Everyone has already seemingly forgotten that happened. The Bulldogs are the 26th best defense in KenPom and are 16th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I think that Newell, Godfrey and Cyril can present a physicality to Gonzaga that they clearly struggle with. Hi Saint Mary’s. UGA’s kryptonite is turning the ball over. Gonzaga is just average at forcing them. No crazy matchup edge there. I think the Dawgs can hang around here. They are SEC battle tested. This high octane Gonzaga offense is nothing they haven’t seen before in conference. Hell, UGA may even win. Give us the points.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 77 – UGA 73
Texas A&M -7 : Yeah, I am not sure what everyone is seeing here. Yale is a very trendy upset pick in this matchup. I don’t even see it in the realm of possibility from an outright perspective. I think this is a dog walk. The combination of the #1 offensive rebounding unit in the country (by a wide margin) and the #7 KenPom defense will be too much for the Bulldogs to overcome. Yale’s 117th ranked defense will not be enough to keep them competitive. Everybody remembers the Auburn win from a year ago for Yale, but they are forgetting the ass kicking that SDSU handed to them in the R32. Danny Wolf and Matt Knowling aren’t walking through that door tomorrow either. Also, people seem to forget that A&M pushed Houston to OT as a 9 seed in the R32 a season ago. The rest the Aggies gained from not going on a deep run in Nashville (as they have done the past two seasons) is a win for them in my opinion. I see this as a comfortable double digit victory for A&M. I will gladly lay it with only 31% of the tickets on Texas A&M. Aggies go on a run to the 2nd weekend. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 76 – Yale 62
Mizzou -6 : Bucking another trendy upset here.
I am riding passenger seat with the books here while having the #5 KenPom offense & #2 free throw rate in the backseat. I like the sound of that. We’ve been doing this too long to pass up on an opportunity to fade a massive public dog of this magnitude. I am not even going to get in the weeds of analytics. This is standard operating procedure for us. M-I-Z
Score Prediction: Missouri 76 – Drake 66
Utah State +5 : I have a huge belief in the Mountain West for this R64. I know it is hard for you guys to trust in this group of teams, but these matchups are fantastic. San Diego State is nowhere near as good as the three teams that we have left per analytics and my own personal opinion. Don’t let their ass kicking cloud your judgement.
There might only be one person who believes less in this Bruins team than I do. His name is Mick Cronin. He is so done with this group. He has been berating them in the media all year long and you can see how visibly frustrated he is on the sidelines when he’s coaching them (more than his normal grumpy self). With that last ass kicking from Wisconsin and the Villanova-Cronin chatter growing louder and louder, I am not sure how UCLA circles the wagons here to cover a 5 point spread against a quality Utah State team.
Utah State has very similar offensive analytics to Wisconsin who just ass blasted the Bruins. This is the #17 rated offense in KenPom (22nd in effective field goal percentage) and they also rank 17th in Rim & 3 rate per ShotQuality. Rim & 3 rate is very important when facing the Bruins. They want to force you into tough 2’s, but Utah State will refuse to take them. The Aggies also have the size to rebound well in this one. Utah State is 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and UCLA is only 151st in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass.
It is worth noting that UCLA is 2-7 straight up outside of the pacific time zone this year. This game is in Lexington, KY. The matchup is essentially a PK on ShotQuality with a predicted score of 72.6-71.9. I am in full agreeance. I will gladly take the points. I think Utah State wins outright. My favorite one of Thursday. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Utah State 76 – UCLA 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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