(photo: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
24/25 Season Record: 287-232
2025 NCAA Tournament: 9-10 (5-1 Best Bet)
What a weird ass day yesterday was. We started the day 4-1 and brought our Best Bets for the tournament to 5-1. Vibes were high entering the four late games where we had all four underdogs. Well, you know the rest. OU and Bryant melting away in the last few minutes just capped it off. The public favorites steamrolled the late night quadbox. Very disappointing way to end the day. It’s almost unfathomable. Nothing we can do about it now though. Time to dust ourselves off and get back to winning. Today’s card is below. A few 3/23 Early Adds & Race to 10’s for today are also included below the card so make sure to scroll down. Let’s get hot!
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3/22 Card:
McNeese/Purdue over 143.5 (FD) (12:10pm) +
Purdue should have a field day in the paint in this game. McNeese has limited size in the frontcourt and we saw just how vulnerable they can be with that late Clemson comeback on Thursday.
As you can see above from the McNeese ShotQuality profile (promo code: SNIPER25), the Cowboys are dreadful in defending in the half court. Braden Smith will baptize this team in the pick & roll. The Boilers rank 14th in half court SQ PPP. While McNeese has major defensive shortcomings, they can also score as you can see above. I expect some decent efficiency in this game. Both of these team’s games went under in the first game at the Dunk, but the SQ Score would have covered both overs. I love the over here. SQ does as well with a predicted score of 78.7-71.4. We got a bad number here with the late movement. Most likely due to the unders in this building. I’ve dipped my toes in again at 140.5.
Score Prediction: Purdue 78 – McNeese 69
Texas A&M -2.5 (DK) (5:15pm) +
Michigan was very lucky to escape UCSD on night one. Their turnover issue was on full display as the Tritons scored 15 points off of 14 turnovers. The Aggies are 54th in the country in turning over their opponents and should get many freebies today. I also think that the depth of A&M is going to be the difference today in what should be a physical game with a ton of fouls.
The Aggies are legit 10 deep and can have guys like Pharrel Payne go off on any given night. The Wolverines do not have a ton of depth and the Aggies #1 free throw rate in the country is going to rack up fouls on Michigan quickly (especially Goldin). A&M moves on to the Sweet 16. Lean the over here as well.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 76 – Michigan 70
Texas Tech 1H -3.5 (FD) (6:10pm)
This is a matchup where I believe Drake has finally met their match from a physicality standpoint. Drake’s defense has been surviving with some pretty worrisome warts on their KenPom resume. The Bulldogs are 291st in the country in 2pt FG % allowed and 271st in opponent free throw rate. I think Texas Tech is primed to take advantage of this with Toppin, Williams, etc. I think the Red Raiders enforce their will early so I will take the 1H to avoid late game magic from Stirtz and Mascari.
Score Prediction: 1H Texas Tech 32 – Drake 26
Auburn -9 (Caesars) (7:10pm) + **Best Bet**
This one is going to get veryyyyyyyy ugly, folks. We were all over Creighton in the first game of the Round of 64, and boy did the Jays deliver for us. It is tough to turn our backs on them this quickly, but this Auburn matchup is an absolute nightmare. The Kalkbrenner advantage that Creighton normally has is completely washed away here. The Tigers have the best interior rim protection in the country as a unit in my personal opinion. Broome, Cardwell, Johnson, etc. They get massive help from their guards as well. The stats back it up. Auburn ranks 2nd in the country in blocked shots per game. I also am predicted a huge turnover disparity here. Auburn ranks 7th in the country in protecting the ball, and 2nd in Non-Stl TO% per KenPom. Creighton is 361st in turning their opponents over. The Auburn ball pressure is certainly going to force some on Creighton’s side, so this could play a major factor in this game. I love the matchup edges for Auburn. I think the sleeping Tiger wakes up a bit and we see one of the thrashings that we had gotten used to earlier in the year. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Auburn 85 – Creighton 68
BYU +1.5 (FD) (7:45pm) +
BYU made a believer out of me in the matchup with VCU. I was already a fan of this group, but I thought that was a horrible draw for them and they came out and handled business wire-t0-wire against a very, very good Rams team. What surprised me was the way they attacked the rim against an elite interior defense. BYU got to the line 28 times compared to VCU’s 6. This team is already 5th in KenPom in 2pt% and 6th in effective FG%. Getting to the line at that rate turns this #9 KenPom offense into something even more elite. Wisconsin is 274th in the country in opponent % of points coming from the stripe. That could very well play a major factor in today’s game. Wisconsin will certainly get their usual three pointers today, but I think Crowl and Winter are going to find things very difficult in their post-up game with Keba Keita protecting the paint.
There is a reason why this game sits at +1 and even PK at some books now with the KenPom predicted score being a Wisconsin 3 point victory. The 6 seed moves on to the Sweet 16.
Score Prediction: BYU 78 – Wisconsin 74
Houston -4.5 (DK) (8:40pm) + **Best Bet**
It has been well documented by now the strength of Gonzaga’s analytics. I took a swing with UGA bucking that notion, and failed miserably. I am here today doing it again. Kelvin Sampson won’t make me regret that. Gonzaga has had major struggles this year with teams that get physical with them. That is why I thought UGA’s interior could keep them in the game. Houston is a completely different animal. The Cougars are absolutely going to suffocate Ike, Huff, Gregg, etc in the paint. Houston is #2 in the country in effective FG% allowed and #4 in 2pt % allowed. Gonzaga’s offense is also predicated on Ryan Nembhard play creating and getting assists. Those are going to be hard to come by today. Houston is 27th in the country in assists allowed per game.
This is also not the typical Houston team you are accustomed to seeing if you are just now joining the CBB world for March Madness. This team can actually shoot! Houston ranks 4th in the country in 3PT % at 39.6%. The Three&D combo is very lethal come this time of year.
The analytic paper tiger gets put to rest today. Houston wins comfortably. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Houston 75 – Gonzaga 66
Tennessee -4.5 (DK) (9:40pm) +
It is unfortunate that Utah State did not come prepared to play against UCLA, but it gives us a chance tonight to take advantage of a team that I do not believe is good enough to be in this R32. These UCLA major analytic downfalls from ShotQuality are a big reason why I think they have a poor night against the Vols.
Tennessee, like Houston, can shoot very well this season. The Vols are 35th in efficiency shooting the three pointer per Shot Quality. The Vols are also 3rd in the country in opponent three point percentage. Holding opponents to only 28.2%. We already know from the profile above that UCLA does not attack the rim. It is going to be a recipe for disaster if UCLA finds themselves living in the mid range against this lengthy Vols defense if they can’t get anything at the rim or from 3. This is a horrible matchup for UCLA. It is always tough backing Rick Barnes as a favorite in the tournament, but we have to here.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 70 – UCLA 63
+ given on Friday
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3/22 Race to 10’s (5-7 ; down 2.06 pizzas)
I have no idea how we didn’t get Troy OR Bryant yesterday. We would be in positive pizza territory if we had just gotten one. Let’s try this again.
Arkansas +125 (DK)
Texas Tech -145 (FD)
BYU +100 (DK)
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3/23 Early Adds:
Illinois -1.5 (Caesars) (5:15pm – CBS)
New Mexico +7.5 (FD) (8:40pm – TNT)
I like a few other spots, but I think we will get better numbers tomorrow. More to come!
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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