(photo: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
24/25 Season Record: 297-240
2025 NCAA Tournament: 19-18 (8-3 Best Bet)
My card for today’s Sweet 16 action is listed below. I have included our Race to 10 pizza plays below as well. Make sure to scroll down. I added a Race to 10 and an official play for the card in this write-up. Let’s snipe!
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3/28 Card (+ given on Tuesday):
Ole Miss 1H +2 (Caesars) (7:09pm – CBS) +
The Rebels have eclipsed the 40 point mark in the 1H in three out of their last four games. Those performances came against Iowa State, UNC, and Arkansas. Michigan State has started pretty slow in their last three games. They trailed New Mexico and Wisconsin at the break, and seesawed back and forth with Bryant in the 1H of that game before taking a small lead into the half. I am attacking this postseason trend from both of these teams out of the gate in this one. Ole Miss has the recent jump shooting to keep them competitive to start this game. I do think Michigan State likely wears them down in the interior and wins a close one in the 2H, so Sparty may be a live opportunity for us at the half. Will keep y’all posted.
Score Prediction: 1H Ole Miss 36 – Michigan State 34
Tennessee -4.5 & under 145.5 (FD) (7:39pm – TBS/TruTV) +
KenPom has this game as a 147 point total prediction. We usually don’t see totals dive well below those projections (144.5 now), so that should always grab your attention. A lot of this action is likely due to the venue. This game is being played in one half of Lucas Oil Stadium. Hopefully it doesn’t look as fucking silly on TV as it does on the internet. The shooting backdrops in football stadiums have been famous for cashing unders over the years. That is nice to have in our back pocket, but that is not my angle here. It’s all about the pace baby.
I am predicting that Tennessee gains a stranglehold on the pace today. The first two meetings of the season ended on 151 and 139 points. Tennessee was able to control the pace in the previous meetings this season, but ultimately lost both games by allowing UK to make 12 threes in both games (while shooting 50% from the field in both as well). The Vols come into tonight’s game with the 346th rated adjusted tempo in KenPom. They are able to dictate the pace against the high flying Cats because of Kentucky’s inability to speed them up/turn them over. Kentucky is 364th (dead last) in the country in non-steal percentage on defense. They just are not set-up defensively to cause unforced errors against quality opponents. The Cats are also 337th overall in turning over their opponents. Kentucky’s inability to turn Tennessee over kept them out of transition and limited the pace in the previous meetings. I think we see more of the same tonight. I am also predicting that Tennessee’s 3rd rated KenPom defense comes to play in a big way today and does not allow Kentucky to reach the 12 made three pointer plateau again. Kentucky will also not sniff 50% from the field for a third time (especially in a football stadium). I feel comfortable laying the points AND taking the under here. The Vols get their revenge.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 74 – Kentucky 67
Auburn 1H -4.5 and -8.5 full game (FD) (9:39pm – CBS) **Best Bet is Auburn -8.5** +
The Michigan luck runs out here. The Auburn spread is touching 9.5 at some places and this is totally justified. This Auburn team is a horrible matchup for Michigan.
These warts on Michigan’s ShotQuality profile above (promo code: SNIPER25) are areas that elite teams will punish you in a win or go home scenario. Auburn is licking their chops to attack in these areas.
As you can see above, Auburn has the profile to completely dismantle Michigan’s flaws. They protect the ball .. can kill Michigan in transition when they cough it up .. will make their open threes.. etc ,etc, etc. Auburn also has the interior depth and athleticism to limit the high-low success that the Wolverines get from the Wolf and Goldin partnership. This is an 8 point game on KenPom and I think that is generous considering the site. This game is being played in Atlanta and early reports are showing that it will be a mini-Jungle in State Farm Arena. Auburn has a MASSIVE alumni/fanbase in the Atlanta area and these tickets sold quickly. This crowd will carry the patented Auburn runs. I like Auburn to jump out to a big lead quickly and never look back. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Auburn 85 – Michigan 70 (1H: Auburn 44 – Michigan 30)
Milos Uzan over 9.5 pts x J’Wan Roberts over 4.5 reb x Houston ML —- Parlay (Available @ DK at +102) (10:09pm – TBS/TruTV)
A little parlay to finish our night. This is the first one we have given all year long, but I was toying around with some things after being in a stalemate with the spread and total and concocted this bad boy. I am pumped about it!
Milos Uzan has reached the double digit plateau in 16 out of his last 19 games for the Cougars. Including 6 games in a row before his 7 point outing last time out against Gonzaga. Uzan is a guard with exceptional athleticism driving the basketball and that has given the Purdue backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer fits over the years. Uzan shoots it 43.7% from three and 77.6% from the free throw line. I like our chances to touch double digits here.
J’Wan Roberts grabbing 5 rebounds is something that I am very confident in tonight. He reached this plateau 6 times in a row before picking up that injury during the Big 12 Tournament. He is now seemingly healthy and grabbed 8 boards last time out against a stout Gonzaga frontline. Purdue’s interior depth is very minimal and their middle of the D1 road rebounding statistics back that up. Playing against Houston’s frontline after facing High Point and McNeese is going to be a shock to the system for the Boilers. I like Roberts to crash the glass, impose his physicality, and get at least 5 tonight.
Houston wins this game tonight. I do not see any chance for an upset. Throwing their ML in this parlay gets us to plus money. Let’s party tonight!
Score Prediction: Uzan 13+ points, Roberts 7+ rebounds, Houston wins by 7-12
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3/28 – Race to 10’s (11-9 ; up 2.64 pizzas)
Ole Miss +100 (DK) +
Auburn -170 (DK) – We are laying the pizza sauce for this blowout
Tennessee -130 (DK) +
+ given on Tuesday
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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