(photo: Jordan Prather – Imagn Images)
Fellas…. Once again…
Damn, it feels good to be back! The 24/25 season was better than anything we could have dreamed of. We hit at an amazing 55.4% clip. The fantastic season all culminated on the night of the national championship game where we had 15-1 and 60-1 national title futures squaring off in the championship game. Literally as good as it gets. I will never forget it!
This offseason went by in a blur. It has been pure elation basking in our 60-1 Florida win over the last several months. Today is when we put that to rest. A new season is upon us. Time to lock back in and grind!
The tip jar is below. Your generosity means the world.
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National Title Winners:
We are going with a four team portfolio again this year. “If it ain’t broke”. Our two title contenders are going to be Kentucky and Houston. Additionally, we are going to take prices on two teams that I believe are criminally mispriced in the market. Those will be Gonzaga & Virginia. The goal for the Gonzaga and Virginia plays will be to gain massive value on our tickets throughout the season and then look at hedging/cash out opportunities to make cash come tournament time (or just win the whole damn thing like Florida!). I will keep you posted later in the year when we get to that point.
Kentucky +1600 (Caesars):
Kentucky is my pick to win it all. Go Big Blue! (i just threw up in my mouth). This will be the longest write-up of the blog. Buckle up.
This is the deepest team in America. Don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise. When at full strength, this team can go 12 deep if they want to. Seriously. Kentucky is reminding me so much of my preseason thoughts of Florida a season ago. Equal amounts of front-court and back-court depth. An exceptional coach that is putting major emphasis on analytics. There are ingredients here to be the best team in the country by the end of the year.
I truly didn’t know where to begin with my thoughts on this team. There is so much to like. However, I need to put an early emphasis on the defensive potential that we have here with this group. The defensive shortcomings were ultimately the downfall for Pope’s Cats a season ago in his first year back in Lexington. The offense ranked Top 10 in KenPom, but the defense ranked just outside of the Top 50 at 51. Kentucky ranked dead last in the country at 364 in non-steal turnover percentage and were gashed 53.9% in 2pt FG percentage allowed. Gross. Mark Pope made damn sure to address this in the offseason. The portal additions of Mo Dioubate, Denzel Aberdeen, Kam Williams and Jayden Quaintance instantly provide the Cats with established elite defenders at their positions. A far cry from the turnstiles of Koby Brea and Andrew Carr. Sorry for the ricochets fellas. There is MASSIVE potential to get this side of the court in-line with their offensive firepower. I think it is a mistake to put a ton of stock into exhibition final score results. BUT, I do believe that you can pull from stretches in these game to give you a glimpse into a team’s potential. I was OVERLY impressed by the defense that this group (without Quaintance) displayed in their exhibition a few days ago against Purdue. The Boilermakers are the consensus #1 team across the board to start the season. There was a stretch in this game where Purdue’s starters went almost 7 minutes without scoring a FG against this Kentucky defense. The defensive pressure that the Cats were displaying was night and day from a season ago. KenPom is currently projecting Kentucky as the #4 defense in America. That might be a touch high for me, but I think that this is a Top 10 unit.
My bold prediction is that we will see Kentucky’s offense as the #1 KenPom unit by the end of the year. They currently sit 9th in the KenPom preseason projections, but this is my favorite offense in the country this year. The freshman class that we have in college basketball this year is the most loaded in recent memory in my opinion. A name that sliding under the radar at the moment (relative to the Dybansta’s, Boozer’s & Peterson’s of the world) is Jasper Johnson. This dude is an absolute bucket.
Adding this type of scorer/shooter to a back-court that consists of Otega Oweh and Jaland Lowe as downhill drivers/creators is such a great fit. Denzel Aberdeen, Kam Williams and Trent Noah will also provide sparks as outside shooters. This back-court is as well rounded as it gets.
I am also loving what we are seeing from the front-court newcomers.
Malachi Moreno will be another freshman to keep your eye on. The 7 footer is dominating around the rim in preseason practice/exhibitions and should be in-line for a big role while we wait on the return of Quiantance. Andrija Jelavic also brings a different punch to the offense as an international transfer. He is a very skilled 6’11 big that can pass and shoot the three ball at an elite level. Adding these two skilled bigs to the tough nosed Dioubate & Garrison tandem will be a great mixture. Last, but CERTAINLY not least.. we received some massive news earlier this month. It was already heavily implied, but we got a matter of fact statement from Mark Pope that Jayden Quaintance will be playing college basketball for the Cats this season.
He will be eased back into the rotation very cautiously when he returns in a month or two, but the reports are that he is getting extremely close to live ball action. Quaintance has a chance to make a leap to All-American level good when he is back to full strength this year. The potential of this team when he returns is off of the charts.
Ok, I will shut up for now. I didn’t even get a chance to gush over Otega Oweh and Jaland Lowe, but I am sure y’all are already very familiar with their game. I hope BBN welcomes this Gamecock to the wagon this year with open arms. I feel gross doing it, but we are here to win right?!
Houston +1000 (Caesars & FanDuel):
The Cougars were our pick to win it all in last year’s preseason blog. They made it all of the way to the title game and fell to our 60-1 Florida value ticket. It was a very bittersweet moment because you just felt so bad for Kelvin Sampson at the end of that game. I am not turning my back on this culture though. The floor of this team is INSANELY high. Betting this team to make the Elite 8 if that is offered where you place your wagers is probably just as safe as investing in an index fund (not a financial advisor).
The trio of Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and JoJo Tugler is as good as it gets in the country. Their talent and experience will keep the Cougars in the Top 10 for the duration of this upcoming season. The ceiling will hinder on the performances of Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. These true freshman are extremely talented, but can they handle the weight of replacing Roberts and Cryer in this starting lineup? Time well tell. If both of these guys hit, then Houston can absolutely win the national championship. We know we are going to get another Top 5 defensive unit from Sampson. It is a yearly occurrence. With the floor as high as it is, I feel comfortable in investing at this team at 10-1.
Gonzaga +4500 (DK):
This number is just silly in my opinion. The Zags have disappointed in recent seasons and that is likely the reason why we are seeing this number where it is, but I actually like this roster construction much better than we have seen from those recent teams.
This team has experience. Lots of it.
The new look back-court is something that I can get excited about. I believe that Braeden Smith going to the Mark Few school of PG’s will bring a different animal out in him. He is ready for this role in my opinion. The Zags are also littered with very capable shooters. I am so ready for the return of Steele Venters!
The front-court remains loaded with the likes of Graham Ike and Braden Huff. I am also extremely excited about the sophomore jump for Ismaila Diagne. I wrote about him last offseason and was excited about his transition to the college game. He was blocked minutes wise with a stacked front-court rotation, but I think we will see much more of him this year.
The most important piece of this roster is Tyon Grant-Foster.
I am so happy for Tyon. He was being unfairly punished for dealing with a heart condition years back, and I am glad he is getting another crack at the college game. Especially now that we are just letting G Leaguers walk-in on the daily, but that is a rant for another day. Grant-Foster brings a real wing explosiveness that you rarely find in a Mark Few roster. I think he could be the X-Factor in gelling everything together for Gonzaga. The WCC will be down this year in my opinion. The oddsmakers have Gonzaga priced at -160 to win the conference. There is an excellent chance for a great seed entering the dance for Gonzaga if they pick off some of these early non-con matchups. I like investing at this value point.
Virginia +13000 (FanDuel):
I just simply cannot fathom how this Virginia team is 130-1. One hundred thirty to one. DraftKings is usually the sharpest when it comes to college basketball prices in my opinion, but FanDuel and Caesars have this priced at 80 and 90. You simply must place this at DK. KenPom is starting the Cavs out at 59th in the country. I could not disagree more. I see this as a Top 25 squad by season’s end.
Things got very sour in Charlottesville in recent years. Tony Bennett had no interest in participating in the portal recruiting/NIL era, and the Hoos paid the price for that. It eventually drove Bennett out of coaching and then we had to see the slop that was leftover for an entire season a year ago. UVA had to get the next coaching hire right. I believe they did just that in Ryan Odom. Odom has coached Utah State and VCU to Top 35 KenPom finishes in two out of the last three years. This man can win anywhere in the portal era. The Virginia collective was quick to back him immediately for this season, and boy did he spend the money wisely. I absolutely love this roster.
We have to start with the international flair. Odom has an all Euro front-court that I am absolutely drooling over.
I also love the veteran back-court that Odom is pairing with these guys. Malik Thomas is an alpha guard. Devin Tillis is a winner. Jacari White is a sniper. Sam Lewis is a scorer. Dallin Hall is a fighter. Four of these guys are seniors and one is a junior. How can you not love this mixture of attributes? This team is just flat out good.
Give me 130 to 1 here. We will be holding some tremendous value entering the dance with this one.
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Conference Title Tickets:
ACC: Louisville +230 (Fan Duel)
I absolutely love this roster. Snipers everywhere
The back-court is unbelievable and I believe that Pat Kelsey addressed key issues in the interior. I like this veteran group + Mikel to make a great run through the ACC conference schedule. +230 is good value here if you are of the belief that Duke might not be as fantastic as the masses are touting.
American: USF +300 (DK)
Brian Hodgson wins the American in his debut season. Calling my shot.
Big 10: Purdue +200 (Draft Kings)
The model of consistency in the regular season. Boiler Up.
Big 12: Houston +160 (Draft Kings)
I will continue to bet this until it loses.
Mountain West: San Diego State +120 (DK)
The MW is not as top heavy as we have seen in recent years where everyone could lose to the other top contenders on a given night. SDSU is the clear class of the league in my opinion. I am happy to get a + sign here.
SEC: Kentucky +400 (Fan Duel)
See above. Go Big Blue.
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Individual Awards:
Bob Cousy Award (Best PG): Braden Smith -120 (DK)
Do not overthink this. Especially if one of the freshmen take down the Wooden Award. Braden Smith is going to be handed another Bob Cousy as a lifetime achievement award. Smith has a very real chance to break the all-time assists record in a legit 4 years. This award is locked up before the season starts as long as he remains healthy for the full season.
Wayman Tisdale Award (Best Freshman): Darryn Peterson +290 (DK)
Darryn Peterson is the best freshman in the country. He is also in the best scenario to put up the gaudiest numbers of the bunch due to his situation. His usage is going to be through the roof in the Jayhawks offense. I love this value.
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Notable Coaching Changes:
This will be a good refresher to get your minds right before next week. Below is a list of notable newly sitting head coaches:
Auburn: Steven Pearl
Colorado State: Ali Farokhmanesh
Drake: Eric Henderson
Florida State: Luke Loucks
High Point: Flynn Clayman (Alan Huss moved to be coach in waiting at Creighton)
Indiana: Darian DeVries
Iowa: Ben McCollum
Maryland: Buzz Williams
Miami: Jai Lucas
Minnesota: Niko Medved
NC State: Will Wade
New Mexico: Eric Olen
USF: Brian Hodgson
Texas A&M: Bucky McMillan
Texas: Sean Miller
UNLV: Josh Pastner
Utah: Alex Jensen
VCU: Phil Martelli Jr.
Villanova: Kevin Willard
Virginia: Ryan Odom
West Virginia: Ross Hodge
Xavier: Richard Pitino
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A big thank you if you have made it this far! This preview took some time and I hope you enjoy it. The season kicks off next Monday with the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon starting at 8am. LFG!
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
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