(photo: Virginia Tech Athletics)
Damn, it feels good to be back! I’m ecstatic that we have been able to get off to a great start. 10-5 & 4-0 on Best Bets is a great way to get our season kicked off. If you are new here, welcome! There will be good nights & good weeks, but there will also be bad nights & bad weeks (hopefully a minuscule amount!). Please bet responsibly and within your means. No phony AI algorithms or “+50000 Unit BOMB WHALE PLAY”‘s here. I am just a regular guy that enjoys the college game and is skilled at wagering on it. I don’t post with units won because I am not trying to snail oil sales anyone. I am simply just trying to provide y’all with winners. I want you to wager your own money how you please. I personally 2u my Best Bets, but it is completely up to how you want your strategy to be.
The best part about winning is cashing our slips together. Keep interacting on X. It pumps me up!
25/26 Season Record: 10-5
25/26 Best Bet Record 4-0
11/8 Card :
- Duke -34.5 (1:30pm – CW Network) +
- Virginia Tech +2.5 (4:00pm – Peacock) (DK) **Best Bet**
- Arkansas/Michigan State under 156.5 (7:00pm – Fox) (DK)
- UNLV -4.5 (9:00pm – MW Network) +
- Oklahoma +11.5 (10:30pm – ESPN2) +
+ Given on X last night
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Duke -34.5 : I was very excited to back the Blue Devils for several days now. I was hoping that the books would open this near the KenPom margin of 27. Unfortunately, Vegas was wise to it. I had a personal limit of 35 so this was still a play when it opened at 34.5. Duke has still taken a ton of money at this price. The spread is up to 37 and 37.5 at most places. It is justified.
The defensive ceiling of this Blue Devils team is Top 5 in the country. There were concerns if that end of the court would experience a drop off with the loss of Flagg and Maluach, but Cameron Boozer and Dame Sarr look like they are going to fill in those gaps perfectly. We saw Western Carolina on opening night when we cashed a Cincinnati ticket against them. That offense is putrid. The Catamounts scored 59 points and Shot Quality shows that was pretty spot on with a SQ score of 64. Western Carolina is now ranked 266th in KenPom and 324th on SQ for adjusted offense. I do not see a path to Western Carolina breaking the 60 point mark today.
Duke should get whatever the want on the offensive end today. Western Carolina allowed Cincinnati to go 13/17 on shots at the rim on opening night. They also put the Bearcats to the stripe 30 times. Cameron Boozer is going to have his breakout performance today. Guaranteed. It should also be a fantastic day for the Duke snipers. Cincinnati was able to make 10 threes against the Catamounts the other night, and Duke’s shooters lap Cincy’s in ability. If you want to look at Isaiah Evans made threes props, I wouldn’t be mad at ya!
This will get ugly. Quickly. I am confident laying the big number here.
Score Prediction: Duke 95 – Western Carolina 56
Virginia Tech +2.5 : I absolutely love that we are getting points here. This is my Best Bet.
I have mentioned my international scouting over the summer. We hit big with Murray State in the opener because we knew of Domon before anyone else. Neoklis Avdalas is definitely not under the radar, but he is going to introduce himself to the masses today.
It is going to sound corny, but this guy is the closest to Luka Doncic’s game that we have in the country right now. He is a 6’9 true facilitator that can score at an elite level. The points weren’t there in the opener (think that changes today), but he was able to record 9 assists (!!!) and only one turnover in his debut. Providence is going to struggle heavily on the defensive end today in my opinion. They allowed Holy Cross to score 79 points in the opener. SQ Score backed it up with a total of 77. The Friars do not have an answer for Avdalas.
I also love what Virginia Tech brings defensively this year. The tweet above mentions it, but Avdalas projects to be an elite defender in the college game as well. Also, Tobi Lawal is one of the most fun shot erasers that we have in the game. His athleticism is off of the charts. Amani Hansberry was another important add this offseason by Mike Young. He brings an interior toughness that the Hokies have needed for a few years now.
The coaching edge in this matchup is heavily in Mike Young’s favor. I am still not a believer in Kim English. I also don’t love his roster construction. They will undoubtedly be better than a season ago, but by how much? I have VT favored by 3.5 on a neutral, so getting 2.5 brings this to a Best Bet. Go Hokies.
Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 79 – Providence 75
Arkansas/Michigan State Under 156.5: I think this is going to be a war at the Breslin Center today. Pace is a reason for pause, but I believe the defenses will reign supreme and get us under the total here.
Michigan State returns an awesome frontcourt this year, but I worry about their guard play. This should be one of the worst three point shooting teams in the Big 10 this year in my estimation. The Arkansas guards really bought in to the defensive end of the court near the end of last season. That matters. Billy Richmond is a defender that has really impressed me. I think the points from the Michigan State backcourt could be hard to come by with the pressure defense the Hogs will impose. On the other end, I believe that Arkansas is going to have fits trying to get points in the paint. Nick Pringle’s offensive game is solely at the rim. Whether it is from offensive rebounds or dump-offs/lobs. That isn’t going to fly with Cooper, Kohler and Carr. These guys attack the glass and protect the rim at an elite level.
I love the defensive edges mentioned above. You worry about the pace that Arkansas will try to impose in this game, but I truly believe Izzo knows his back-court limitations and will drag this out into a halfcourt game as much as he can at home. Give me the under here.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 76 – Arkansas 75
UNLV -4.5 : I got chirped a bit for this play on Twitter last night, but look at the potential CLV we are gaining! This is up to -8 across the board at the books at the time of me writing this. Listen, I get it. The opening night loss to UT Martin was embarrassing. However, we back numbers here. Not teams.
This was a sneaky scheduling spot that I had my eye on this week. Chattanooga had to fly across the country to Moraga last night to get their ass kicked by Saint Mary’s. They were rewarded with a turnaround quick flight to Vegas to play another game today. Luckily, we got our play in before the ass kicking last night. I am just not a fan of the Mocs roster this season. The stalwarts of this team over the past few seasons have exited the program through graduation and the portal. I obviously will grade them even worse when coming off of a back-to-back & also playing a well rested squad.
There is talent on this UNLV team. I promise you. I am willing to overlook this opening night loss. The roster and coaching staff was completely overhauled. I believe there is enough talent there for a bounce back tonight at home against an inferior opponent on a B2B. We got a great number here. Let’s win.
Score Prediction: UNLV 79 – Chattanooga 70
Oklahoma +11.5 : I love backing Porter Moser getting this many points in a non-conference game. This number was posted here due to the KenPom projected score, but it is simply too many points.
Moser is a coach that always has his team in prime form to start the year. Over the last two seasons the Sooners have knocked off Iowa, USC, Providence x2, Arkansas, Arizona, Louisville, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State etc. all before Christmas. The Kennel is a different animal and y’all know how I feel about the Zags this year, but I will take 11.5 with Moser in the non-con any day. Outside of the Moser angle, I also believe that OU has the interior length and toughness to not get overwhelmed by Gonzaga in the post. Wague and Davis can take the blows in the interior, and I love what we saw from Atak in the opener. This freshman is going to excel in pulling Huff and Ike out of the paint to stretch the floor for his own looks, but also for the OU guards and wings to slash the lane.
I am pretty much in agreeance here with the Shot Quality projected score. I just think there will be a little bit more scoring, but 7 is spot on with my prediction. Give us the points. Boomer Sooner.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 85 – Oklahoma 78
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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