(photo: Aidan Sun – Daily Bruin)
Time to get on a heater after an awesome Thursday night! I absolutely love this card & hope we are able to pull off another sweep! Scroll down for a breakdown of each matchup:
25/26 Season Record: 22-14
25/26 Best Bet Record 7-3
11/14 Card :
- Illinois State/USC over 156.5 (7:30pm – Peacock) +
- UAB +2.5 (7:30pm – ESPN+) (FD) **Best Bet**
- Colorado ML -110 (9:00pm – ESPN+) (FD)
- UCLA +3 (10:00pm – Peacock) **Best Bet** +
+ Given on X last night
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Illinois State/USC over 156.5 : We snagged a good number here last night. I see this touching 158 to 158.5 across the board at the books. The movement is justified. I think we see some efficient scoring paired with pace tonight.
The Trojans come into tonight’s game rated 13th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. They will be setting the pace tonight so that is important to note. Also, USC has scored 94 and 114 points in their first two games of the season. The offense was of high quality in both of those buy games. Shot Quality backed both performances up with SQ scores of 103 and 117 in those games. Illinois State is currently ranked 302nd in allowing shots at the rim per Shot Quality. KenPom shows that they are ranked 245th in 2pt% allowed. It should be another excellent night offensively for USC.
Illinois State will be a great dance party for an over. Both of their totals have gone under this season, but Shot Quality graded both games well over the closing total. Water finds it’s balance here in regards to the looks they are allowing + the unlucky splits they’ve had on offense so far. This is one of the most talented mid-major rosters in the country from an offensive perspective. Chase Walker has an excellent chance to win the Valley player of the year this season. He has been in foul trouble in the first two contests (needs to clean that up), so I feel tonight could be his chance to explode offensively & get his season headed in the right direction. The Redbirds backcourt is also littered with shooters led by former Wisconsin Mr. Basketball, Johnny Kinziger. I love their offensive make-up.
This game is being played at the Intuit Dome. This will be a semi-home for USC, but I expect a zero crowd for a 4:30pm local tip. This should help Illinois State carry us to the over. Let’s score some points!
Score Prediction: USC 88 – Illinois State 74
UAB +2.5 : Fellas, this was the spot we were waiting on. It appears Vegas will be on our side here, so we are not going to see the market move we had hoped for. Public money is pouring in on High Point and the books aren’t flinching. We know what to do.
Andy Kennedy was heated after dropping a home game to Alabama State on Tuesday night. That is just not an acceptable performance for the program he has built in Birmingham. I do have a feeling that this was the wake up call this new group of guys needed. There is talent here. UAB suffered a 94-70 defeat to NC State before this loss to Alabama State. Shot Quality shows that that game was way more competitive than it appears from the box score. The SQ score was 79-78 in NC State’s favor.
This is an ultimate regression to mean spot here. High Point is shooting way above the predictive metrics. They are scoring 1.34 PPP and Shot Quality shows that should be closer to 1.17 PPP. UAB is also due for better luck on the offensive AND defensive end. There should be a decent true home atmosphere on a Friday night in Birmingham. I love this spot. UAB outright. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: UAB 86 – High Point 81
Colorado ML -110 : This Providence defense is completely non-existent to start the year. That is a recipe for disaster when traveling across the country to Boulder. Providence has allowed 79 to Holy Cross, 107 to Virginia Tech (86 in regulation), and 81 to Penn in their first three games of the season. You would think that this would be simply pace driven, but they are only 57th in adjusted tempo at KenPom. The warts of this defense begin to show when you take a deep dive further into the data. The Friars are 306th in the country in defending the three point line to start the year. They are allowing opponents to shoot 39.3% from distance. Providence is also 303rd in forcing turnovers, and are even worse at 334th in non-steal turnover percentage. This is an effort thing on that end of the court. The Friars are not closing out on threes & they are not trying to force bad passes. This is a really poor unit at the moment.
Colorado looks poised to take advantage of these Friar defensive shortcomings. The Buffaloes offense is in high gear to get the 25/26 season started. They are 27th in protecting the ball on offense, and are 47th in the country in 3PT % at 40%. Love the matchup edges there. Look, I could see you giving me pushback on the Colorado defense struggling out of the gate as well. That is why we love our friends over at Shot Quality.
The Colorado defense is showing unlucky splits from 3pt, mid-range, and post-up scenarios. They are allowing 1.21 PPP when it should be closer to 1.03. I am just fine backing this team tonight.
I think Colorado squeaks out a win here in a true home spot. Happy to take a -110 ML.
Score Prediction: Colorado 83 – Providence 79
UCLA +3 : I love, love, love this spot for the Bruins. This is not a true home game. It is also being played at the Intuit Dome where USC is getting our night started. However, I see these teams closer to PK on a neutral at this point in the season.
Arizona was fantastic against Florida to get the season started on opening night. They were our first Best Bet cashed! However, the Florida guard play has been pretty poor to start the season. Donovan Dent is a completely different animal. Him being active for this game is MASSIVE for the Bruins. His facilitating and scoring will stretch the Arizona defense. This will also allow Bilodeau to get his work. It should be a nice night offensively for the Bruins.
The main angle of the handicap in this one is the defensive end for UCLA. We saw Koa Peat absolutely shred Florida with his rise up mid-range shots in the paint. That will not fly against Mick Cronin. He will have the Bruins in a defensive shell with Booker, Jamerson, etc clogging the paint in a semblance of a pack-line. It is not going to be easy for Peat in the interior. Arizona will have to beat UCLA from the three point line. That is not going to be easy. UCLA is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3 to start the year, but Shot Quality shows they should be closer to 32%. Arizona is also due for heavy regression on three point percentage. Not a good mixture for the Wildcats. The Bruins defense is currently rated 29th in KenPom. I expect that to improve as we move on throughout this year. I believe it has a chance to be an elite unit once again coming off of a final KenPom defensive rank of 2nd in 22/23 & 14th a season ago.
I like Mick Cronin to get the best of Tommy Lloyd here in this early season battle. Give me the points as a Best Bet. Bruins win this game outright.
Score Prediction: UCLA 78 – Arizona 74
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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