(photo: Texas Tech Athletics)
Sorry friends. Busy morning. These 2H melts are driving me insane. Another night where we would’ve swept the board on the 1H lines. Another night where the losses were graded as wins on Shot Quality. That is the game we play though. It will swing our way. Hopefully, sooner rather than later. We were able to cash the Best Bet to end the night, thankfully. Alabama was super impressive in what was essentially a road game at the United Center. Felt good to get that one home. Let’s let that win propel us to a great night tonight!
Also, Charleston Classic day is tomorrow! Will have pre-game plays, live bets, player props, etc. going. Stay tuned for a big content day.
25/26 Season Record: 28-24
25/26 Best Bet Record: 9-6
11/20 Card :
- Memphis +15.5 -118 (6:00pm – CBSSN) (DK)
- Miami -21.5 (7:00pm – ACC Extra) (DK)
- Queens -6.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FD)
- Oklahoma -24.5 (8:00pm – SECN+) (FD)
- Texas Tech -7.5 (8:30pm – CBSSN) **Best Bet** +
- Cal Poly +13 (9:00pm – ESPN+) (Caesars)
+ Given on X yesterday afternoon
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Memphis +15.5 : We are getting our night started in the Baha Mar ballroom. It feels dirty going against the Boilermakers who always do right by us, but this number is simply too inflated.
Shot Quality is projecting a crazy close matchup in this one. I am not going to go THAT far, but I do see this game ending in the 10-12 point range. There is significant value baked in here with the books knowing they can still get a heavy Purdue handle at the current number.
The ball pressure that the Memphis guards will be able to deploy on Purdue’s backcourt will be the difference maker in keeping this within the number. The Tigers come into today’s matchup ranked 36th in the country in defensive steal percentage. These are the type of rosters that Fletcher Loyer really struggles with. It intensifies the pressure on Braden Smith, and I think we will see another large helping of steals and runouts for the Tigers today.
I am also of the belief that the ballroom backdrop neutralizes the shooting gap in this matchup. We have seen a wide variety of scores here over the years, but there have definitely been more low scoring affairs than shootouts. This amount of points in a game I lean to the under on is too good to pass up. Give us the dog.
Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – Memphis 71
Miami -21.5 : We will always thank the 24/25 Phoenix for the early season gifts they gave us a year ago. We sniped a talented roster and took advantage with them for the better part of 2 months before the books caught on. Unfortunately, the portal & NIL ripped that team apart. I am not high on Billy Taylor’s roster this season. They still sit at a KenPom rank of 251st, but I expect that to slide back into the mid-300’s where he was in his first two seasons at Elon.
The ugliest wart on the Elon resume to this point is their defense. The Phoenix currently sit 343rd in KenPom adjusted defensive rating. They can’t look at Shot Quality to help them. They are 332nd there as well. This opens the door for Miami to win by margin tonight. The Canes have really impressed me on the offensive side of the court to start the year.
Shot Quality shows us that the hot start is justified from the looks they are getting. I would also not hate a look at the Miami team total tonight. It is going to be a fun one for the Canes.
Elon is also struggling in transition and from the 3 point line as you can see above. They simply will not be able to score enough to keep up here. I will lay the big number with the Canes.
Score Prediction: Miami 94 – Elon 67
Queens -6.5 : You could have told me any time in the past that Queens would never be laying 6.5 points against UNCG in the history of their program and I would have believed you. UNCG has been a phenomenal mid-major program for many, many years. The Spartans are usually a lock for Top 150 in KenPom. However, things have gotten ugly in Greensboro this season. This has been Mike Jones’ worst recruiting job in this time at UNCG and the losses will continue to pile up.
The advanced analytics show there is no “bad luck” to blame this horrible start to the season on. The Shot Quality regression analysis indicates that there is no reprieve for the struggles on the way, and the KenPom Scouting Report is as red as a fire truck. This team sucks ass. There isn’t much more that I am calculating into this play (well, I do love that Queens hit 16 threes last time out). Full fade of the Spartans.
Score Prediction: Queens 82 – UNCG 72
Oklahoma -24.5 : I love this spot for Oklahoma. The Sooners offense should have a field day tonight. This offense has one of the better SQ offensive profiles that I have come across this season:
Also, Nijel Pack is heating up. That might be an understatement. The super duper senior is 11/19 from the three point line in his last two contests. That is bad news for an Oral Roberts defense that can’t stop a nosebleed this season. The Golden Eagles are 334th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating, and are 319th in 3PT % allowed. Bombs away for Pack and the Sooners.
Oral Roberts is a team we need to take advantage of in their current state. They have a philosophy of shooting a ton of threes (6th in the country in 3pt rate), but they are a dreadful shooting team. Oral Roberts is 329th in 3PT %. They aren’t just missing great looks. This team is taking horrible 3’s. The Golden Eagles are 321st in Assist/Field Goal Made. Shot Quality also rates them 333rd in their passing metric. Tons of ISO and pull-up threes.
The Sooners also have a MASSIVE edge in the interior. There will be second chance points galore. Oral Roberts is going to get blitzed tonight. We will lay the big number.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 95 – Oral Roberts 65
Texas Tech -7.5 : We got an excellent number here yesterday afternoon. This is touching -10.5 almost across the board at this point. I was texting with my buddy Max Hofmeyer (@hoffy812 on X) after I locked in this play. We could not believe that this Red Raiders team was laying under double digits on a neutral court against Wake Forest. The market has agreed.
JT Toppin has quickly kicked into his All-American gear after dealing with a knock to start the season. There is absolutely no answer for him on this Demon Deacon roster. We watched the Wake/Michigan game and the Deacs struggled mightily with Aday Mara. Toppin is a different type of player, but I do not think highly of Wake’s frontcourt on the defensive end. Wake Forest ranks 295th in 2pt % allowed on defense. That is a recipe for disaster with Toppin’s ability around the rim.
I expect Wake’s offense to struggle tonight. The do not have a strength that they can lean on when things get tough against a Grant McCasland defense. They are not a great shooting team, don’t finish well around the rim, and are not succeeding in transition (132nd in SQ Transition PP). I just cannot fathom how they are in this game tonight. I am laying the number with the Red Raiders with the upmost confidence. One of my favorite plays of the year to this point. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 78 – Wake Forest 63
Cal Poly +13 : I think this is a sneaky spot to take a chance with a dog to end our night. Poly is a ton of fun to watch. The Mustangs have risen all of the way to 2nd in KenPom adjusted tempo. They are also 20th nationally in points from three pointers. I think this offense can pack enough punch to keep us within the number here. The Utah defense is just non-existent to start the year despite their undefeated start. They are rated 144th defensively by KenPom, and Shot Quality has dropped them all of the way to 202nd in their adjusted rating. They’ve allowed everyone to score on them this year in a mid-major only schedule to this point. Poly will score enough to keep us within the number here.
Score Prediction: Utah 85 – Cal Poly 75
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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