(photo: knoxnews.com)
25/26 Season Record: 42-38
25/26 Best Bet Record 9-9
11/26 Card :
- Houston Team Total over 71.5 (3:30pm – TNT) (Caesars)
- Tennessee -2.5 -118 (7:00pm – TNT) **Best Bet** +
- Auburn +5.5 (8:00pm – TruTV) (FD)
- Gonzaga/Michigan under 163.5 (9:30pm – TNT) (MGM)
- Texas +3.5 (9:30pm – ESPN) (DK)
+ Given on X last night
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Houston Team Total over 71.5 : This is a terrible draw for Notre Dame. Houston should be able to get whatever they want offensively in this game. The Fighting Irish come into today’s tilt ranked 321st in the country in block percentage. There is simply no rim protection on this roster. That is TROUBLE when you are dealing with the likes of Tugler and Cenac Jr. around the rim. Not only should the Irish be shaking in their boots about the rim rattling bigs, but Kingston Flemings is the real deal, folks.
His ability to get the ball to the rim brings a different dynamic to this offense from the attack with Cryer over the last several years. He was driving at will against one of the best defenses in the country in Tennessee (check the video above – super impressive). I expect a lot more where that came from today against a team with no shot blocking prowess.
You worry about pace here. Notre Dame and Houston both will play slow. I just see the efficiency of Houston on the offensive end being through the roof. Buying that 2pt% stock now. Give me the team total.
Score Prediction: Houston Team Total – 75
Tennessee -2.5 -118 : Had to stay up late and jump on this one at open. I knew we would see a sky rocket in the market. Apologies to those that weren’t able to snag, but congrats to all of you that were still up when this dropped. Insane CLV coming our way. For the record, I usually don’t like to answer the “Would you still play it at the current number?” question. I hate endorsing plays at a lesser value. This is an exception. I don’t think the market will ever touch what Tennessee wins this game by. I love this play so much.
How fucking impressive were the Vols last night?! Those that have been here for a while know that the Vols are one of my favorite programs in the country. Yes, we are still waiting for Rick to figure it out in March, but this program is a model of regular season elite consistency. We wagered against them yesterday because of my personal number, and I just presumed it to be a terrible matchup edge. I was under the impression that the frontcourts would cancel out and that the Houston backcourt would be the difference. That was not the case. I left that game coming away way more impressed with the Vols interior. Let’s call it like it is. They Houston’d Houston down the stretch in the paint.
Jaylen Carey was a menace on the offensive glass. His offensive rebounding and second chance points were the difference. Having that interior firepower off of the bench is such a weapon. This team is for real.
All of this leads me into why I think Kansas is fried in this matchup. Without Darryn Peterson, it is Bidunga/Tiller ball. That was able to carry them against Notre Dame’s frontline (mentioned them earlier). Yes, they were able to also get the win over Syracuse yesterday.. but damn was it ugly. They had 15 turnovers to Syracuse’s 2. Offensive rebounding was 13 to 11, so Cuse was able to compete there. The difference was that Cuse shot 32% from the field and missed 10 free throws. Kansas was practically trying to give the game away at the end of the game. Cuse just couldn’t take advantage. Kansas is nowhere near where they need to be right now. Tennessee will make Kansas pay for this sloppy play today. The Vols frontline will hinder Bidunga/Tiller ball, and Gillespie and Ament will take care of the rest. This game will trend more to the KU/Duke game than what we have seen over the past two days. Vols by a ton. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 76 – Kansas 67
Auburn +5.5 : I worry about the Red Storm on the offensive glass in this game. How can you not? It has been an abomination in that department from St. John’s in the Players Era. They have allowed 17 offensive rebounds to Iowa State, and 26 (!!!) to Baylor in their first two games. This is not something that is getting corrected on a third day in a row of an MTE. Auburn is currently 23rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. The Tigers are poised to take advantage of this edge. I also love how the Auburn backcourt is protecting the ball. The Tigers are 10th in the country in turnover percentage on offense. They should get many more cracks at the rim today by winning the turnover and offensive rebounding battle. Love that when backing dog.
The point guard situation for St. John’s is still in disarray in my opinion. Dylan Darling is getting the lions share of the minutes at them moment. Not sure that is a good thing. He has been dreadful in my eyes at this MTE. Darling just seems to be struggling with the level of athleticism at the Players Era. He may figure it out as the season rolls along, but I don’t think he flips the switch on Day 3 in Vegas.
With the perceived turnover, offensive rebounding, and point guard edge that Auburn has in this matchup, I will be backing the dog. Would not be shocked to see the Tigers win this outright. War Damn.
Score Prediction: Auburn 84 – St. John’s 82
Gonzaga/Michigan under 163.5 : This is not fun at all. I understand. Taking the under in a matchup against two of the better teams of the season to this point (still can’t believe we have the Zags 45 to 1) is never a desirable wager. However, I think it is the right one today.
I knew that the Gonzaga defense would be tremendously better this year. That was one of the reasons we added them to our preseason futures portfolio. I just didn’t know they would be THIS good. The Zags are rated 4th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive metric. The defensive wing presence of Grant-Foster and Warley is something that this team desperately needed. This team is ready to make a run at a title. Also, this may surprise all of you. It surprised me as well. Michigan is now rated #1 in KenPom’s defensive metric. We have a battle of Top 5 analytic defenses tonight on a 3rd day of action in a row. Both offenses are due for a slight (very slight) downturn in points per possession per Shot Quality. Give us the under with some tired jump shooting legs and terrific defense.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 80 – Michigan 77
Texas +3.5 : I really like the Longhorns here. So do our friends over at Shot Quality Bets. SQ is projecting the following:
I have this game as a PK on a neutral. Will gladly take 3.5 points.
Here are also some quality metrics from Texas’ SQ Page:
The high free throw rate is important here. That is the biggest blemish on NC State’s resume to start this season. The Wolfpack are 312th in the country in opponent free throw rate. The SQ PPP regression analysis also shows that the Longhorns offense is at 1.27 PPP on the year. It should be a good day offensively for Texas.
The Longhorns defense has some things to work on for sure, but they can build on the havoc they are causing. Texas is 13th in the country in steal percentage, and 18th in the country in block percentage. NC State was able to pull way from Boise yesterday by creating havoc of their own. I think Texas neutralizes that Wolfpack strength today.
This should be a PK. Give us the points. Texas wins outright.
Score Prediction: Texas 82 – NC State 79
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 