(photo: USF Athletics)
25/26 Season Record: 52-54
12/4 Card :
- USF ML -102 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FD) **Best Bet**
- UCSB -12.5 (9:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
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USF ML -102 : It was a disappointing trip to the Bahamas for Brian Hodgson and the Bulls. After losses to VCU and Colorado State, South Florida is now 0-4 vs KenPom Top 70 teams to start the season. Not a great start for a team that many (including myself) think can win the American this year. Shot Quality shows they probably should be 2-2 in these games instead of 0-4. I believe things can swing their way today in Tampa.
Utah State has been an inferno to start the 25/26 season. We got a first hand dose of that in Charleston during the Classic when they were tied 40-40 with Tulane at the half, and then scorched the Green Wave 56-35 in the 2H. I do believe in the long term success of the Aggies. They will compete at the top of the Mountain West. However, their market price/analytics are flying a little too high at the moment.
A look under the hood shows that the Utah State offense is scoring above their expected results in a big way right now. SQ shows they should be closer to 1.11 PPP instead of the 1.19 number they are boasting. This is an important factor in my handicap today. This game will be a high possession affair. The Bulls are 12th in tempo on KenPom. Utah State has been a pace chameleon this year and they will be happy to get up and down with USF tonight. SQ’s Regression Analysis shows that USF is scoring 1.17 PPP and has room to even improve on that. The SQ PPP for USF is 1.19. I am very interested in backing the short home ML in a high possession game with the SQ PPP .08 in South Florida’s favor.
I also love South Florida’s turnover splits for a team that plays as fast as they do. The Bulls are 61st nationally in turnover % on offense, and they are 29th in turning their opponents over. A blemish on the Aggies resume is they are 167th in turnover percentage on offense. This is another reason why I am backing the Bulls today.
Give us the short ML here. The return of the Best Bet. Lock it in.
Score Prediction: USF 86 – Utah State 79
UCSB -12.5 : When is Pasternack going to catch a break? His last few seasons as the Gauchos head coach have been like our start to this gambling this season. Anything that can go wrong, will definitely go wrong. This is one of the best mid-major coaches in the country… that also has one of the best mid-major rosters in the country. This team is due for a breakout performance. The oddsmakers are expecting it today. We are going to ride with them. This is a 9 point KenPom matchup spread and the books have it sitting at 12.5. That is a very telling sign for me.
We are going back to our lovely friends at Shot Quality for a Regression Analysis snapshot on the Gauchos.
This Gauchos team is defending their ass off. 0.99 SQ PPP on the defensive end is elite. The results are going to start coming on that end of the court.
The offensive firepower is there as well. Mahaney and Little are proven power conference contributors, and Sensley is starting to hit his stride in his sophomore season. 20 points last time out to get his season average into double figures.
Everything feels like it is culminating in a blowout win tonight over a Long Beach State team that is simply just not any good. They are scoring 0.96 SQ PP and are rated 281st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating. I am happy to lay the points here with Santa Barbara
Score Prediction: UCSB 79 – Long Beach State 62
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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