(photo: Marquette Today)
25/26 Season Record: 74-75
12/30 Card :
- Bowling Green -5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (Caesars)
- Marquette +1.5 (7:00pm – FS1) (FD)
- Cal +8.5 (9:00pm – ACCN) (DK)
Back at it after 8 days off! Feels good to be back. I am ready to wash away the forgetful first half of our season and get back to rolling like we should be. 4-1 was a great way to send us off before break. Let’s get a 3-0 night to welcome us back!
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Bowling Green -5.5 : Do not let the records fool you here. Bowling Green is a justified favorite in this matchup. It is pretty embarrassing what Miami OH did with their non-con schedule this year. The average KenPom rank of the ten Division 1 teams that the RedHawks have faced is 283. They have also played three non-division 1 teams that have counted on their record. 13-0 is what the record shows, but we aren’t falling for that. The RedHawks have a lot of defensive holes that will be exposed today. Miami ranks 174th in KenPom adjusted def rating, and they are even worse on Shot Quality with a rank of 196. Bowling Green is by far the best offense that they have faced to this point. The Falcons have five double digit scorers and are shooting 49.8% from the field as a team.
I also love what we are seeing from the Bowling Green defense to this point in the season. The Falcons are 16th in the country in steal percentage. They are recording 13 per game as a team. Javontae Campbell leads the charge averaging 3.7 per game. Bowling Green is also pushing Top 50 in defensive efficiency on KenPom and Shot Quality. That is the edge in this game. Both offenses are capable of scoring, but only one defense is capable of getting necessary stops. I will lay the number here with Bowling Green. Miami OH takes their first loss of the season tonight.
Score Prediction: Bowling Green 82 – Miami OH 72
Marquette +1.5 : This Marquette team is better than their 5-8 record. I am sure of it. The Christmas break was needed for this group. The season was spiraling after a four game losing streak to Wisconsin, Purdue, Georgetown and Creighton. After 10 days off, I think we see a very inspired performance today. Shaka Smart is always great with an underdog narrative. That is where he thrives. The Golden Eagles are 6-3 ATS as a home dog since Smart was appointed head coach in 2021.
The regression analysis above shows that the Golden Eagles offense is very close to clicking. The action they are getting is fantastic. 1.15 SQ PPP is way up there for the schedule Marquette has faced. Also, SQ is showing that Seton Hall’s defense is flying well above their expected level. I think both of these units could start finding their way towards the mean in this matchup.
I love this spot for Marquette. Missed the best number at open yesterday, but I will gladly take them as a short home dog. The Golden Eagles win an important one.
Score Prediction: Marquette 76 – Seton Hall 70
Cal +8.5 : Ran out of time to get a full write-up on this one. In short, Louisville has not been the same team on the road. They are 0-2 straight up and ATS on the season. I understand that the competition level in those games is superior to this Cal team, but the Golden Bears are spunky in my opinion. Keep your eye on Semetri Carr. This freshman is starting to flourish and is an X-Factor to Cal’s success.
Score Prediction: Louisville 84 – Cal 78
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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