(photo: X: @BoogieFland)
Feels good to be typing out another blog! We will be back on the train and giving picks before you know it. The break has been awesome! I’ve been able to really dive into the numbers with a new lens, and I feel ready to rock when we get back to it. I am thinking about early February at this point. Still TBD. Below are some matchup edges that I have uncovered from our friends at Shot Quality and KenPom. These are not picks. Just interesting data points that I have uncovered while looking over the slate (with some leans included!). Hope you enjoy. Let me know if you’d like these moving forward until we are back at it.
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Minnesota at #13 Illinois (12:00pm – BTN):
This matchup smells like it could be a Big 10 homecourt whomping to me. KenPom has this as a 16 point Illinois win. That should grab your attention with the way Minnesota has played of late. It will be interesting to see how high it opens. The Golden Gophers are 1-2 on the road this season. With the two losses being by 23 to Missouri and 28 to Purdue. Minnesota has played some better ball since then, but these road performances are very hard to ignore. This feels like a spot where things could unravel again. Illinois should absolutely dominate the free throw battle. The Illini are #1 in the country in defensive three throw rate. Minnesota ranks 279th in the country at 69% from the line. There will not be a path here for Minnesota to gain meaningful points you need to avoid the blow out. Minnesota also just doesn’t do it for me from behind the three point line. 219th in the country in 3PT percentage. I would expect the Illini to put this one to bed quickly. The data agrees.
#19 Florida at #10 Vanderbilt (2:00pm – ESPN):
The most anticipated game of the weekend for me. It will be interesting to see how the oddsmakers see this one. KenPom has this as a three point win for Vanderbilt. I am not so sure you won’t see this as a PK or even Florida -1 at open if I had to guess. Could be dead wrong there, but just a hunch. Florida is rolling coming into this game with the improved play of Boogie Fland. If you want a narrative …
The Gators have now leapfrogged Vandy in KenPom (10th and 11th). This could be another game where Vanderbilt’s opponent free throw rate could come back to bite them as it did last night in Austin. The Gators are relentless on the glass and could get to the line quite often with a height disparity of 13th in the country in favor of Florida to 233rd for Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been phenomenal this year and have defended home court, but I think the Gators have a real opportunity to steal a close one here with their current form.
#14 North Carolina at Cal (4:00pm – ACCN):
Intriguing one here. KenPom has this as a 3 point game in favor of the Heels. We will likely see a short spread at the open. The Bears have an intriguing matchup edge as a short home dog. They are #1 in the country in opponent steal rate. They do not make mistakes in passing lanes. North Carolina ranks 350th in turning their opponents over. This sets up for Cal to have a solid chance of winning the turnover battle. It is also worth noting that North Carolina is desperate to pick up a win in this one after dropping their west coast opener against Stanford. This should be a fun one. I would more than likely lean to an over on the KenPom total of 149. The regression model is favorable for more points than expected per Shot Quality:
USC Upstate at High Point (7:00pm – ESPN+):
This should be a game where High Point can name their number. It was a really disappointing night last night in Rock Hill. The Panthers got smacked from the jump against Winthrop. The two teams are now tied at the top of the Big South standings. Nothing like coming home to High Point and getting served up a team with the analytical ratings that the Spartans have. The Upstate offense is horrific. They are 311th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and it is even worse at Shot Quality at 334th. They are 255th or worse at 3p%, 2P%, FT%, Eff FG%, and offensive rebounding. The High Point defense has really let them down this season to this point, but this is a definite “get right” spot for that side of the ball. The Spartans also are 286th in the country in free throw rate. High Point is 34th at getting to the stripe. This lead should balloon quickly. KenPom has this as a 15 point game. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t open higher.
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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