(photo: Georgia State Athletics)
February Record: 5-2
February Best Bet Record: 2-0
2/12 Card :
- Georgia State/James Madison over 144.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FD) **Best Bet**
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Georgia State/James Madison over 144.5: Just one play tonight. I absolutely love it. There is a beautiful mixture of analytics in our favor here to produce an evening of scoring from two bad teams.
The three point frequency in this matchup is the data point that triggered my interest in looking further into this KenPom number of 144. James Madison comes into this game ranked 53rd in the country in 3PT frequency, and Georgia State isn’t too far behind at 58. The Dukes actually shoot it well (35.9%) for a team with a 12-13 record. The Panthers are not great at shooting the basketball, but JMU’s 3PT defense has not been fantastic and should provide plenty of opportunities for open looks.
This stat pulled from our friends at Shot Quality is a massive feather in the cap for the underdog tonight in route to scoring points. James Madison ranks 321st in the country in putting their opponents to the free throw line. Georgia State will feast at the stripe. I also love what we have seen from Jelani Hamilton over the last few weeks:
These defenses are atrocious no matter where you look across the data sites. The KenPom profiles are gross, but the ShotQuality profiles show their defenses are even worse than they appear. I think we have an excellent chance of sailing over the KenPom total of 144. I will gladly take over 144.5 for our Best Bet of the night.
Score Prediction: James Madison 78 – Georgia State 73
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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