(photo: Henry Frieman)
February Record: 13-10
February Best Bet Record: 6-3
2/18 Card :
- Northwestern -8 (8:00pm – BTN) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
- Gonzaga -13.5 (11:00pm – ESPN) (MGM)
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Northwestern -8 : Love this play tonight. You don’t often see a 10-16 team laying 8 points over a 10-15 opponent. It is justified (and then some) in this scenario.
Maryland’s defense is going to be the focus of this handicap. The Terps come into this game ranked 325th in the country in effective FG% allowed per KenPom. Putrid. It is easy to see why when you dive into the ShotQuality analytics. Maryland ranks 349th in the country in SQ Rim & 3 PPP allowed.
Northwestern is continuing to do the right things on offense despite their results. They are still running what Collins wants. That is important when backing a team with this record. The Wildcats rank 69th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. A lot better than some would expect. Their ShotQuality profile also shows they have a perfect recipe to attack the many weaknesses of the Terps
I am expecting big performances from Nick Martinelli down the stretch at Welsh-Ryan. He has been a vital piece for the Wildcats in their best stretch of basketball in the history of their program. He is a winner. This year hasn’t gone as they had hoped, but this senior fights as hard as anyone in the country. Also, how can we not look back on last year and get positive vibes for tonight?!
We are laying the big number here. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Northwestern 79 – Maryland 65
Gonzaga -13.5 : It’s Davis Fogle SZN.
Fogle continued his impressive stretch with another great performance in a massive road win over Santa Clara . His energetic burst in the 2H helped the Zags get over the hump and walk away with the victory. Listen, he is not Braden Huff. The absence of Huff will undoubtedly cause issues in March for the Zags, but Fogle has the ability to continue to contribute to winning in a weak WCC. Especially on the defensive end.
The Zags continue to be as good as it gets analytically. The college basketball community has jumped off of this team way too soon after the Portland loss. San Francisco is wobbling coming down the stretch. 2-5 straight up in their L7 with several blow out losses. I know they have been scheduling their Gonzaga games at the Chase Center since it opened for some extra $$$, but it has proven to be a horrible basketball decision. Gonzaga dominates USF in this arena every year, and the Zags won by 20 last year against a better Dons team that what they are facing today. These teams played a tightly contested game earlier this season. A 68-66 win for Gonzaga. However, ShotQuality had the result as 83-60. I think we see something similar today. A patented Gonzaga blowout victory propelled by the momentum from winning at Santa Clara over the weekend. I am laying the big number here.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 82 – San Francisco 64
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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