(photo: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images)
February Record: 17-11
February Best Bet Record: 7-4
BOOM!!!! Rolling into tonight on fire after a 3-0 sweep! 7-2 on the week and we ain’t stopping now. One play on the card for tonight with the short slate. 2/21 Early Adds coming this afternoon. Let’s snipe!
2/20 Card :
- VCU/Saint Louis over 163.5 (7:00pm ET – ESPN2) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
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VCU/SLU over 163.5 : This number has been bet down a tad from the opener. I believe this an overreaction to how the first affair went. The total in that game closed at 171.5 (opened 168.5) and the game ended on 133. It was a very nervy 1H between the two A-10 title favorites in which we saw both teams missing wide open looks. SLU took a 30-22 lead into halftime. Only 52 points. The 2H was more true to form from how I see these teams matching up with 81 points scored. Shot Quality shows that the 1H was to blame for the total not even coming close to the closing number.
The Saint Louis offense continues to be one of the best in the country. The Billikens are 2nd in the country in effective FG%, 2nd in 3PT %, and 1st in average 2PA distance per KenPom. VCU’s offense continues to climb the ranks as well. They are now 44th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. Their bread and butter is driving to the rim and finishing or getting fouled (sometimes both!). This will be the perfect Rim & 3 rate game that we need to get over this large total.
We will also need pace and subpar defensive performances to aid us tonight. I think we will see that. As I mentioned before, the possessions were there in the first matchup. Just a poor shooting start. We will get the pace we need with SLU pushing up-tempo at home, and VCU being happy to oblige. Both defenses are also due for regression per Shot Quality’s Regression Analysis. SLU is allowing 0.96 PPP and SQ expects it to be closer to 1.08. Pretty hefty jump there. Also, VCU is allowing 1.05 PP and SQ is expecting more like 1.09. I like seeing this pop up on the SQ Regression Analysis when I am eyeing an over.
Points, Points, Points! Let’s have a fun (& profitable) Friday night, gents.
Score Prediction: Saint Louis 88 – VCU 80
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 