(photo: Southern Miss Athletics)
March Record: 5-2
March Best Bet Record: 4-0
Boom!! Excellent start to our month. 4-0 on Best Bets! March is always our best month. Have to continue to keep it rolling though. Two plays today. Had enough time to get a write-up out. Hope y’all enjoy!
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3/5 Card :
- Drake/Southern Illinois over 135.5 (4:30pm ET – ESPN+) (Caesars)
- Southern Miss +1.5 -102 (6:00pm – ESPN+) (DK) **Best Bet**
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Drake/Southern Illinois over 135.5 : Bucking the infamous trend here.
It’s a daunting endeavor, however I cannot ignore my data points and beliefs on how this game will go.
Neither one of the regular season meetings between these teams reached the total that is set today. 134 in the first game (in regulation – went over in OT) & 127 in the most recent affair. However, the possessions were through the roof in both games. The ShotQuality score in regulation in the 1st meeting was 158. It was also 147 in the 2nd game. Scott Nagy has the Salukis playing quicker this year comparative to his first season at Southern Illinois last year. The pace this season is much more like the Wright State teams of Nagy’s that we were accustomed to. Drake is not playing at a super quick pace per their adjusted tempo standing, but they have been willing to dance when teams turn up the tempo. Being a pace chameleon has turned the Bulldogs season into a disaster. Drake is coming into today on an L9. The defense completely flatlined and allowed 82 PPG to opponents during that stretch. Their defense is going to force the offense back into being a pace chameleon today, and I believe they will run a bit with the Salukis.
I am not as worried about the Enterprise Center hex as I normally would be in this matchup. That is because the Salukis attack the rim at a high rate. They are 40th nationally in that metric per ShotQuality. The Salukis will get easy buckets around the rim early & this will increase the pace to what we have seen in the prior meetings. The KenPom total on this game is 144. I personally had 145 in a standard neutral. Adjusted to 140 for the Enterprise Center. The Arch Madness Unders Hex is not worth almost 10 full points in this particular matchup in my opinion. Other matchups today, maybe. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Going with the data here. Give us the over.
Score Prediction: Southern Illinois 73 – Drake 67
Southern Miss +1.5 : The public is making a “logo pick” in this matchup. James Madison is the brand name in the Sun Belt. The Dukes are also rolling into Pensacola winning 6 out of their last 7 games. Jumping on a short -1.5 spread is tempting to the masses. I am seeing as high as 76% of tickets & 83% of money at some books. Vegas isn’t moving off of their position. We will be riding with the house.
The physicality of Southern Miss is a really bad matchup for JMU this year. We saw it in the only meeting of the season back on January 31st. The key area to look at in this matchup is the free throw stripe. The Golden Eagles are 29th in the country in free throw rate, and the Dukes are 301st in putting their opponents to the line. Tylik Weeks and Dylan Brumfield had their way getting to the rack and drawing contact in the first meeting. USM shot 28/34 from the stripe in a 73-65 win.
Weeks has continued to live at the line since this matchup and turned himself into a 1st Team All-Sun Belt player. I am backing him to have a big night.
USM’s biggest weakness is turning the ball over. They rank 318th in the country in turnover percentage. However, James Madison ranks 359th in the country in turning their opponents over. It theoretically washes away the vulnerability of the Golden Eagles. It proved to be true in the first meeting where both teams were equal on 11 turnovers.
I love this matchup. I love this betting handle spot. Give us Southern Miss for a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Southern Miss 75 – James Madison 70
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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