(photo: Nate Edwards – BYU Magazine)
March Record: 9-3
March Best Bet Record: 6-0
BOOM!!! We are scorching hot, fellas. A 3-0 sweep of our card last night & we moved to 6-0 on Best Bets for the month. Hot at the right time! Have to keep it rolling though. Five pack today with the heavy slate. Two Best Bets! Card & thoughts below..
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3/7 Card :
- Purdue -8.5 -118 (4:00pm ET – CBS) (FD) **Best Bet**
- Towson -6 (6:00pm – FloSports) (Caesars)
- Samford ML -110 (6:00pm – ESPN+) (Caesars)
- Omaha +8 (8:00pm – CBSSN) (Caesars)
- BYU -2.5 (10:30pm – ESPN) (DK) **Best Bet**
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Purdue +8.5 : This is the last time we will see Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer or TKR play in Mackey Arena. Pretty surreal to think about. It is special in this day & age to have a group with that much talent start and finish at the same place. The Boilermakers are welcoming in the Wisconsin Badgers for this Senior Day. I am a fan of Greg Gard’s group this season, but the Badgers simply do not matchup well with Purdue. The Boilermakers smacked Wisconsin 89-73 in Madison earlier this season. I think we will see another beat down today. A lot has been made of the recent downturn in form of Purdue. It has been greatly exaggerated in my opinion. All three of the losses to Michigan, Michigan State & Ohio State were graded as wins on ShotQuality. The Boilermakers have risen all of the way to #2 in the adjusted ShotQuality rating. Purdue also still sits at #7 in KenPom (#2 in offense). Matt Painter has this group doing the right things. You can also see that the confidence has not wavered in this group. I am not shying away from laying points with this team.
Time to marry the gut feel with the data. Wisconsin’s defense has been a liability all year long. The Badgers have lost 7 games away from Madison this season. They are allowing 83.9 ppg in those losses. The inability to turn their opponents over is a problem. The Badgers now rank 317th in the country in opponent turnover percentage. That is bad, bad news when facing one of the best facilitators we have ever seen in the college game.
(photo: X – @BoilerBurner1)
Braden Smith is quickly climbing the all-time assist ranks. Smith had 12 assists in the first meeting with Wisconsin this year. Their lack of ball pressure and inability to get into passing lanes will be another huge issue again today (allowed 89 to Purdue in 1st meeting). I expect a big game from TKR in the interior as well with Wisconsin ranking 184th in 2PT% allowed and 217th in block %.
Give us the Boilers on Senior Day. We will lay the 8.5 for a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Purdue 85 – Wisconsin 72
Towson -6 : Towson, Towson, Towson. One of the most frustrating teams in the country this season. Their talent and coaching is WAYYY too good to be a 17-14 (9-9 CAA) ball club. At least there is no surprise when you look under the hood to see why. The Tigers are 359th in the country in 3PT % and 324th in FT%.
The ShotQuality Regression Analysis is predicting some favorable things to start happening for the Tigers from deep. I believe in that. Tyler Tejada and Dylan Williamson are good shooters. We know that. They are both well below their career averages. Williamson is starting to find it a bit. He was 7-13 from distance against Stony Book last time out. That is the 4th game out of his last 6 where he made at least 3 triples. If these two can score from the outside, this team is DANGEROUS.
Let’s talk about what Towson does well. It is what they always do well under Pat Skerry. Hit the glass and defend. The Tigers are 36th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. They will control the glass against a Hampton team that is below average on the boards. Towson is also 73rd in the country in effective FG% allowed. Hampton comes into today 352nd in effective FG% offensively.
This is phenomenal matchup for Towson. I am laying the number with them today.
Score Prediction: Towson 70 – Hampton 60
Samford ML : Most of you know how much I love this Samford team. If not, please check out the link below where Max & I wax poetic about the Bulldogs.
And the great news is .. we don’t have to lay a big number with them today! Forever scarred from that Bad Beat.
This offense rocks guys.
This profile is something to drool over. Especially when facing a Furman Paladins side that is overperforming from where they should be on the defensive end. Furman is allowing 1.08 PP on the defensive end, but SQ expects that to be closer to 1.13. The Paladins are also rated 325th in ShotQuality’s adjusted defensive rating.
Samford is rolling into today winning 8 out of their last 9. Jadin Booth just set a school record for threes in a game with 11 (!!!) makes last time out. This team is as hot as we are. Samford lost two heartbreakers to the Paladins this year. Both were graded as SQ wins. I believe that the revenge comes swiftly today. I am always scared when going against Bob Richey. I have a TON of respect for him & he has probably stayed at Furman longer than he should have. He is a loyal man. However, the rumor mill is starting to circulate that he may finally be taking his next step this offseason. That is another factor in the game today that I believe is working against Furman. Give us Samford on the ML today.
Score Prediction: Samford 77 – Furman 72
Omaha +8 : Rolling with the Mavericks again tonight! An awesome performance last night by Omaha to cash a Best Bet for us. I think there is reason to back the boys again today. Omaha lost both meetings to NDSU in the regular season. SQ had it is a split. I believe a split would’ve been fair based on how those games went.
The Mavericks’ supporting cast was fantastic last night. Omaha got 40 of their 76 points off of the bench. They were able to win by 14 points with Djobet and Osburn combining for 8 points. That is something that you LOVE to see when backing a team through a conference tournament run. Especially when we know that Djobet has scored 60 points (!!!) on NDSU this year. There is just something about this team. Let’s bash some trash cans.
Score Prediction: NDSU 76 – Omaha 72
BYU -2.5 : The Red Raiders finally suffered their first loss since JT Toppin was ruled out for the season. TCU was able to pick off TTU in Lubbock by punking the Red Raiders around the rim. That is something that Texas Tech was able to do to BYU in the first meeting behind a monster performance from Toppin. His stat line was 27 points, 13 rebounds (5 offensive), 2 steals & a block. Without Toppin in the fold today, I think BYU can get this done behind a rocking crowd at the Marriott Center.
BYU has definitely felt the pain of an injury of their own. This team has not looked the same since Richie Saunders was lost for the season. After losing of 4 out of their last 5, the Cougars are sitting squarely on the 10 seed line. That is definitely a concern when backing this team as a favorite. However, Texas Tech’s own depth issues are a nice reverse card to those concerns.
As I discussed earlier, I believe that the Marriott Center will be absolutely rocking today. This is the last chance that this fanbase will get to see the best player in the history of their program play on their court. Outside of the bizarre loss to UCF a few weeks ago, BYU has only lost to Arizona and Houston in Provo. The Marriott Center is already rated 12th in home court advantage on KenPom, but I believe it will be supercharged today. That is definitely a part of this handicap.
I suspect Texas Tech will get very few points around the rim today. The Red Raiders rank 229th in the country in 2PT attempt distance. That is with Toppin playing for a majority of the season. Without him, they will find points hard to come by around the rim with Keita looming in the paint. Points in the paint will be the difference today. BYU controls that and gets a massive win to carry them into postseason play. Best Bet. Lead us, AJ.
Score Prediction: BYU 84 – Texas Tech 76
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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