(photo: Melina Pizano/Getty Images)
Welcome to the 2026 Three Point Sniper NCAA Tournament Preview!
It’s finally here, fellas! This is truly the best time of the year and I can’t wait to watch these games unfold over the coming days. We are rolling into the tournament just how we would want. 10-4 on Best Bets in March. This is a good omen as we were 11-4 on Best Bets in the tournament last season! Over the last three tournaments, we are 90-60 (60%) overall on all plays. We have been able to take it to that extra gear every time, and I hope we are able to do it again!
There is no perfect science when it comes to this tournament. That is why we love it. I just hope that the preview below is a tool that you can use to put your best foot forward with brackets, pools, etc. I will certainly be using it for handicapping. Hopefully we are on the right track with the analytics backing our decision making.
Three Ball Write-Up Schedule (subject to change):
Thursday’s full card will drop Wednesday PM with a write-up
Friday’s write-up will be released Friday AM
Saturday’s write-up will be released Saturday AM
Sunday’s write-up will be released Saturday PM
**For those who are new here … get on a fasting diet now to prepare yourself for the PIZZA!
If you would like to leave a thank you now or in the future, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
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Region Breakdowns
East Region: Man, this region is a bear.
Outside of the phenomenal coaching pedigree, we have some analytical darlings everywhere in this region. The 8 seed Ohio State team that Duke could potentially be facing in the R32 is rated 22nd at EvanMiya.com. You will see below in the 3PS Seed Matrix as well, but Louisville is a nasty 6 seed that doesn’t even get discussed when you get lost in the coaching pedigree discussion. That team is dangerous as hell with a seemingly healthy Mikel Brown Jr.
I fully believe Mikel Brown Jr. will be playing (not fully cleared yet) from reading the tea leaves over the last week. Also, the winner of KU/SJU is an intriguing matchup for Duke. Both present their own problems for the Blue Devils. Especially if Ngongba is still hampered. Tough, tough 4/5 draw. I think bottom of this region sets up quite nicely for UConn as the 2. The Huskies blew their 1 seed chance by embarrassing themselves against the Johnnies, but their draw to start in Philly gives them a great chance to find their form to try to roll through this region to Indy.
Max Hofmeyer and I broke down every single R64 matchup from the East & South region. Please give us a listen and like/subscribe if you can!
South Region:
This region is being touted as having the toughest 2 and 3 seed that we have in the field. For good reason.
(photo: kenpom.com)
As you can see above, KenPom’s predictive ratings have Florida, Houston & Illinois all with a similar chance of representing this region in Indianapolis. There are very logical pathways that could lead you to pick any of these three horses as your Final Four pick. I am not going to try to steer you in a certain direction other than stating the fact that Illinois is on the same level as these teams. View them in that light when breaking down your matchups. The KenPom net rating of Houston is 33.43 and Illinois is 32.10 (UF – 33.79). Illinois is actually rated higher than Houston in the 3PS Seed Matrix (keep scrolling). There is an extremely big caveat though. The South Region will be playing their Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX. While Illinois is analytically on the same level as Houston, can you stomach picking against the Coogs in their hometown in the Sweet 16? That is up to you to decide!
This region also features the shortest spread that we have with a big seed variance. The 11 seeded VCU Rams are 2.5 point underdogs to the 6 seeded Tar Heels. I shared my thoughts on this game and the other R64 matchups from this region in the YouTube video in the previous section. Check it out!
West Region:
Let’s go to Haslametrics.com to see probabilities for this region.
This region was a bummer for me to be honest. Not because of the quality. The quality is CERTAINTLY here. I was just highly disappointed that Wisconsin and Arkansas will meet immediately in the R32 if they get past their first round games. I think it would have been fun for both of these teams to have a shot at the Sweet 16 with their styles of play. Both are fun watches. I also think it is a bummer that they are matched up with Arizona as their 1. I know it would be fun to pick one of the Hogs or Badgers to go on a run, but I just don’t see either getting by the Wildcats. We have some intriguing R1 matchups in this region. Utah State has the chance to rid the Mountain West of some demons by catching a banged up Villanova team traveling to San Diego. The Aggies obviously have familiarly with Viejas and it could be a slight edge? Another surprise was to see the 10 seed Missouri be slotted into the Saint Louis first weekend regional. Tough break for the 7 seed Miami who will essentially be playing in a road atmosphere. Purdue always travels well and will bring their own noise, so I don’t worry about them in the R32 should they face Mizzou .. but again, just a tough tough break in the R64 for Miami. BYU vs the winner of Texas/NC State will be fireworks. Little to no defense in that one. This region features the best chance at a 1 vs 2 seed Elite 8 matchup in my opinion. I believe we will see Purdue trying to knock off Arizona for a “hometown” (60ish miles) Final Four trip.
Midwest Region:
Have to start here when discussing this Midwest Region. Alabama will be without Aden Holloway for the first weekend of the tournament, and likely the rest of the way should they advance. This is fantastic news for Michigan fans/backers. An Elite 8 trip for the Wolverines looks HIGHLY likely with JT Toppin and Aden Holloway not being in the mix for Texas Tech and Alabama. The books have priced the Elite 8 odds for Michigan even higher than the open. They now sit at -380 to make the Elite 8 at DraftKings. Don’t try to get cute here in your bracket. Advance the Wolverines to this point at minimum. Speaking of Texas Tech and Alabama.. these teams are having to go against two of the best mid-major teams in this year’s tournament. Akron and Hofstra are the real deal.
We are all Jake Marsh! It is not a hot take at all, but I will say that we will likely get an upset here in this 5/12 – 4/13 mini bracket. Not the double upset, but I truly believe that one of these two teams could fall in Tampa.
It is worth noting that Evanmiya.com’s projections believe Akron has the best chance at the infamous 12-5 upset this season. His site projects that there is a 63% of one of the 12-5 upsets occurring in this year’s tournament.
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Three Point Sniper Seed Matrix
The Three Point Sniper Seed Matrix is something that I mixed up in the lab last year. It was very helpful in carrying us to another successful NCAA Tournament. In this section we are going to uncover who is seeded improperly based on several industry power ratings mixed with my own personal power ratings that I use for handicapping. The secret sauce formula worked well last year. I am rolling with it again. This will help you with picking upsets in your bracket + selecting who to fade from a betting perspective. It will also identify teams that we can take round futures on (S16, E8, F4).. Uh, hello Illini. I have compared the 3Ps Seed Matrix against the 1-64 seeds released by the committee to see where the biggest variances are. Here is what I uncovered:
Side Note: The variances aren’t nearly as wild as last year. Good job, committee. Even if the sport handed it to you this year!
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Tournament Round Futures
Arizona to advance further than Duke +150 (DK): It is simple. I think Arizona is the more complete team & I believe they have the better regional draw.
Kansas – Elite Eight +650 (DK): Going against the 3PS Seed Matrix in a big way here. Apologies to myself. I think St. John’s could potentially be on upset alert in the R64 with a weird UNI matchup. But, if these two meet.. I personally like Kansas. Then it is Kansas vs Duke for the +650. Could hedge or go for it all. I’ll take the longshot dart throw here with Bell Self leading us.
Illinois – Elite Eight +160 (FD): Have to ride with the 3Ps Seed Matrix after the disrespect of the secret sauce from the previous play. Illinois to the Elite 8!
UConn – Elite Eight +170 (DK): Love the draw for the Huskies. Great price here at DK.
Louisville – Sweet 16 +200 (FD): Different team with Mikel Brown Jr. I am jumping ahead of him being officially cleared and trusting (hoping) that it will happen. Analytical darling. Will take the stab here.
Title Pick: Coming Thursday 11am – explanation below
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Pre-Season Futures Update:
Here is a look at our pre-season tickets & where they sit today:
Kentucky +1600 (now: +20000): Missed the mark here. Clearly. The Jaland Lowe injury ended up being much, much worse than was reported in the preseason. We never saw a healthy game from him this season before he shut it down for the year. Same story with Jayden Quaintance. With the slow start + the absence of their two best players on paper, this ticket sadly died months ago.
Houston +1000 (now: +1000): No change in price from the preseason. Still feel really good about having a Houston ticket. Especially with the hometown draw for the S16 & Elite 8. Gotta love that.
Gonzaga +4500 (+6000): The fluctuation on this price from the pre-season until now has been crazy. I believe this got as low as +1300 at the beginning of January before the injury to Braden Huff. That pretty much derailed the Zags season as a title contender. The only loss that the Zags suffered with Huff in the lineup was to Michigan when they went scorched earth on the Players Era field in Vegas. He may try to come back should they make it to the 2nd weekend, but I highly doubt it.
Virginia +13000 (+6500): Got double the current price in the preseason. Great find here. This number was actually better prior to the bracket release. The books do not love the draw for the Hoos despite the incredible run through the ACCT & rising to #9 in the AP and #13 in KenPom.
This was not a fantastic year for my title futures portfolio. Especially coming off of nailing Florida 60-1 a year ago. For those that are new here, we actually had pre-season dueling Florida 60-1 and Houston 15-1 title tickets for the national title game last year. We were guaranteed to get paid to watch that phenomenal game. Will never forget it. But, this year’s preseason portfolio has let us down a tad. Have to put the hand up and admit that. In more exciting news, we will be locking in my title pick for our last title future on Thursday around 11am (sorry, need to preserve leverage on my pools for as long as possible haha!). Stay tuned and have the notifications on! This is when we picked the UConn 16-1 ticket back in 2023.
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Fun Tweets Section
Below are some tweets that I have pulled from my timeline that should be a part of your thought process as you go throughout this first week of the tournament.
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That’ll be it for this preview. Good luck with all of your wagering and pools this week everyone. Let’s make this tournament the best one yet!
threepointsniper.com 