(photo: The Tennessean)
NCAA Tournament Record: 0-0
NCAA Tournament Bet Record: 0-0
The Big Dance is finally here! I hope you all enjoyed my NCAA Tournament preview. If you missed it, just refresh to the home page and you will find it there. I am excited to build on the reputation we have built in March. 90-60 (60%) over the last three years in the tournament overall. 11-4 on Best Bets last tournament. Ready to keep it rolling! Six plays on the card tomorrow & some Race to 10 Pizza plays. Scroll to the bottom for the write-up. See y’all tomorrow at 11am for my national title pick!
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3/19 Card :
- Troy +13.5 (12:40pm ET – truTV) (Caesars) +
- Vanderbilt -11.5 -102 (3:15pm ET – truTV) (FD)
- Michigan State -16 (4:05pm – TNT) (Caesars) **Best Bet** +
- Texas A&M +2.5 (7:35pm – truTV) (DK) +
- UGA -2.5 -102 (9:45pm – CBS) (DK)
- Houston -21.5 (10:10pm – CBSSN) (truTV) +
+ given on Sunday night
Race to 10 – Pizza Plays: For the new 3PS community members, this is a Race to 10 bet. As simple as it sounds. The first team to 10 points wins. Make this wager size very small – hence the pizza money name we have attached to it. We usually do pretty well, but it is simply for fun! Played all of these at DK.
- Troy +165
- Louisville -150
- Kennesaw State +260
- Texas -110
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Troy +13.5 ; Michigan State -16 ; Texas A&M +2.5 ; Houston -21.5 : Most of you have heard my thoughts on these games. If you haven’t, please head over to the link below and listen to Max Hofmeyer and I break these games down. He has time stamped every game so you can skip through to the specific ones you would like to hear more on if you would like. Just do me a favor & like/subscribe for him. He’s been working hard on these and does a great job!
Score Prediction: Nebraska 74 – Troy 65
Score Prediction: Michigan State 84 – NDSU 61
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 72 – Saint Mary’s 68
Score Prediction: Houston 82 – Idaho 54
Vanderbilt -11.5 : I spoke about this matchup in the video above as well, but wanted to get the typing fingers working a little bit for you guys. I stated that I was likely getting to the window later in the week, and that is the case. Just locked this one in. Let’s get into why I love the Commodores here.
As mentioned in the video, McNeese’s path to success is turning their opponents over and creating havoc. #1 in the country in opponent turnover percentage. That is just simply a strength that they cannot impose onto Vanderbilt. While the Commodores get get up & down at times (Top 100 in pace), they just don’t make many mistakes. Vanderbilt is 11th in the country in turnover percentage. Tyler Tanner is a dynamite ball handler. It has been awesome to see the leap his has taken in his sophomore season. A Nashville area kid that is now getting some All-American (I voted him 3rd-Team at USBWA) recognition at Vanderbilt. Awesome story.
There are two other key metrics that lead me to believe McNeese has no chance in this game. If they are not turning over Vanderbilt while being completely outclassed in talent, then they will need to have a crazy performance on the glass and/or from the three point line. Bad news. They suck ass in both of these categories. The Cowboys are 299th in 3PT % & 339th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Lastly, here is a fun graphic from Evanmiya.com
(credit: Evanmiya.com)
This team ranks really low in be able to punch above their weight class. The two tournament teams that the Cowboys played this year in the non-con handled them with ease. I am backing the Commodores to win comfortably here.
Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 82 – McNeese 65
Georgia -2.5 : Can Saint Louis flip the switch and find their form? I am not so sure.
Saint Louis has struggled big time since mid-February. The Billikens have been the 150th ranked team in the country since that time per BartTorvik. It is also no surprise that the Billikens are entering this year’s tournament dead last in momentum per Haslametrics.com after the way they started this season. It is unfathomable that this offense has failed to reach 70 points in three (all losses) out of their last six games, but that is where we are. I have to go with what SLU is showing us they are in their current state.
This game could be an absolute track meet. UGA is 16th & Saint Louis is 21st in adjusted tempo on KenPom. This is where I believe the edge is. Much like Vanderbilt that we discussed in the previous section, Georgia does not turn the ball over. They are 31st in the country in turnover percentage, and 5th in the country in non-steal turnover percentage. The Billikens struggle in this department. 230th in the country in turnover percentage. They also struggle in turning opponents over & rank 218th in that department. In a high possession game, I could see UGA really dominating the turnover battle and getting a ton of buckets/free throws in transition. Also, Saint Louis doesn’t have the roster to take advantage of UGA’s biggest weakness, the defensive glass. The Dawgs are 336rd in the country in this department, but the Billikens are undersized and are only 161st in offensive rebounding percentage. Georgia has the athleticism edge by a mile as well. There is not a soul on Saint Louis that matches up well with Kanon Catchings.
There is just so much to like from a matchup perspective with Georgia here. I am also trusting Saint Louis telling me what they are in their current state. I know it would be a blast to finally back Josh Schertz and Robbie Avila in the NCAA Tournament, but have to be a Grinch here. Go Dawgs.
Score Prediction: UGA 86 – Saint Louis 80
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 