(photo: Kevin Li – The Chronicle)
NCAA Tournament Record: 5-6
NCAA Tournament Best Bet Record: 1-2
Race to 10: 7-1 ; +9.23 pizzas
Tough day yesterday. Akron and Northern Iowa were outmatched. As simple as that. I thought they had the coaching and matchup edges to hang close, but that was not the case. 2-1 outside of those. The loss was Kansas having a 26 point 2H lead dwindle to single digits in the blink of an eye. Annoying. The 2-3 day brings us to 5-6 for the tournament. Only halfway through the weekend. Still plenty of time to get hot. Speaking of, the Race to 10 plays are still hot and ready! 7-1 on those. +9.23 pizzas. That is carrying the slow start to the pre-game plays. 4 pack of normal plays and pizza plays. Let’s have a day!
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3/21 Card :
- Louisville +5.5 (2:45pm ET – CBS) (DK)
- Duke -11.5 (5:15pm – CBS) (FD) **Best Bet**
- Texas A&M +11 (6:10pm – TNT) (Caesars)
- Nebraska 1H +.5 (7:25pm – TBS) (Caesars)
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Race to 10 – Pizza Plays: BOOM!!! We continue to roll with these! 7-1. We are staying hot and ready. Pizza Pizza!
- Louisville +114 (FD)
- Duke -230 (DK)
- Texas +126 (FD)
- Nebraska -106 (FD)
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**More brief write-up than normal. Busy morning**
Louisville +5.5 : This is a very interesting matchup. Two completely different strengths going at one another. Michigan State is going to own the glass. Louisville is going to own the 3PT differential. The problem that I have with Sparty in this game is that they have lost the 3PT differential battle in all of their 7 losses this year. Louisville has won many games where they have lost the rebounding edge. Michigan State is 343rd in opponent 3PT rate. Louisville is 4th in 3PT rate. The Big 10 has two teams that are also in the Top 10 in 3PT rate, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Michigan State has lost to both this year. Nebraska made 13 threes on them, and Wisconsin made 15. I think the 3PT line keeps Louisville around long enough to cover this spread. Would not shock me to see an upset here.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 76 – Louisville 74
Duke -11.5 : I think this is a really poor matchup for TCU. The Horned Frogs have found their form down the stretch by out muscling their opponents. That won’t happen today. David Punch is unfortunately going up against Cameron Boozer. That is a matchup kryptonite. This is going to neutralize the only offensive threat that TCU has. Especially when the likes of Dame Sarr are attached at the hip to Micah Robinson. The Horned Frogs are a poor shooting team & Duke’s #1 rated KenPom defense is going to swallow this team whole. The lack of backcourt scoring will be the final dagger here. It will be a long day for Brock Harding and Jayden Pierre. Duke comes out and makes a statement today. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Duke 75 – TCU 58
Texas A&M +11 : The Aggies did just as we expected in the first round of the tournament. They flushed that horrible SECT performance and came out and made life hell for the Saint Mary’s Gaels. A&M was able to force 18 turnovers in the game. Houston is much better at protecting the ball than Saint Mary’s, but I believe that this defensive pressure can speed the Coogs up out of their desired tempo and get this game more up and down than they would prefer. With the shooting prowess of the Aggies (52nd in 3PT % – 42nd in rate), I think that a faster tempo game could suit them well. It is also a feather in the cap that the Aggies are Top 50 in turnover % offensively. They shouldn’t get overwhelmed in the turnover margin like a normal Houston opponent does. I think they have several different defenders that Flemings will have to deal with today. That is also a good thing. I don’t see an upset here, but I think we can cover the 11.
Score Prediction: Houston 75 – Texas A&M 67
Nebraska 1H +.5 : This is going to be a home game for the Huskers.
This atmosphere above was for an 11:40am local time tip. It is going to be even crazier today for the 7:45pm local tip for a chance a the first Sweet 16 in school history. I think this juice can help them get out to a hot start. Especially with Sandfort in this form. I also love the way that Nebraska defended. That is going to be the key in covering this 1H spread. Vanderbilt actually struggled more than I thought with the McNeese pressure. The Nebraska extended defense could give them some trouble early on in this game. I am not going full game out of my respect for Tanner and Byington, but I think we enter halftime with a lead here.
Score Prediction: 1H Nebraska 38 – Vanderbilt 35
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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