(photo: ALI OVERSTREET | AP)
NCAA Tournament Record: 15-13
NCAA Tournament Best Bet Record: 6-3
Race to 10: 11-7 ; +5.9 pizzas
The Sweet 16 was great to us. A 3-0 run on Best Bets was exactly what we needed! We were able to finish 5-3 overall on the round. We even added a pizza! Let’s keep it rolling.
Time to turn the page towards the Elite 8. Outside of the opening two days, this is my favorite round of the tournament. The pressure/energy of the have’s/have not’s trying to earn a birth to the Final Four is truly special. Also, as much as I love a multi-view … it will be nice to go full screen! I feel really good about where the field stands. My Final Four of UConn, Illinois, Arizona, & Michigan is still intact. Hopefully our Illini can cut down the nets and bring a third ring to our community in four years!
The full Elite 8 card with a write-up is below. Plus some pizza! Appreciate all of you that stay in the grind with me. Makes all of this more fun. Now, let’s cash some tickets!
————————————
3/28 Card :
- Iowa/Illinois 1H under 65 (6:09pm ET – TBS/truTV) (Caesars)
- Purdue +6 (8:49pm – TBS/truTV) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
3/29 Card:
- Michigan -7.5 (2:15pm ET – CBS) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
- UConn +5 (5:05pm ET – CBS) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
————————————
Race to 10 – Pizza Plays:
- Purdue +120 (Caesars)
- UConn +125 (DK)
————————————
Our remaining futures (+1.3u on these for the tourney):
- Arizona to advance further than Duke: +150
- Illinois title winner: +2400
————————————
Iowa/Illinois 1H under 65 : Massive game for our Illini! The same can be said for the Hawkeyes. That is part of the reason why I think we see a sluggish start from a scoring perspective. Could be a very tight start with the way these two teams play. This game is going to be played to very few possessions. The Illini are 285th in the country in adjusted tempo and 332nd in average offensive possession length. Additionally, the Hawkeyes are are 361st in adjusted tempo and 363rd in average offensive possession length. A shit ton of late shot clock situations are on our horizon today, folks.
I also love the way these two defenses have performed recently. Illinois is coming off of allowing only 55 points twice in a row to VCU and Houston (both games under our 65 1H total today).
Iowa is coming off of playing two run and gun teams, but I think they handled themselves well defensively. Especially down the stretch against both Florida and Nebraska. I think their defense will settle in and play much better in the 1H today with a pace that they would much rather prefer.
We saw a 1H score of 35-24 in favor of Illinois in Carver-Hawkeye earlier this season. I think we are hovering around that 60 point mark again in today’s 1H. Give us the under.
Score Prediction: 1H Illinois 32 – Iowa 30
Purdue +6 : This is scary. Don’t get me wrong. Arizona looks like a freight train right now. However, this is simply the right play from a data point / playstyle standpoint. Arkansas was an absolute dream matchup for Arizona. That is why we laid the points with the Wildcats in the Sweet 16. The Hogs run it like they are on an AAU circuit, and are flat out one of the worst 2PT defensive teams in the country. Arizona scored 109 points going 5-8 from distance. Just think about that for a second. 94 points from the free throw line and inside the arc. It will be a different story today.
Purdue will not get baited into a frenetic pace in this game. Braden Smith is one of the best point guards that we have ever had in the college game, and he will ensure that the Boilermakers play close to their 325th rated adjusted tempo. That will be key in ensuring that Purdue is not getting blown away in transition. That is important to note because the Boilermakers are Top 50 in the country in opponent transition frequency per ShotQuality. Keeping Arizona out of transition is a big key in keeping a game competitive against the Wildcats. Purdue is also one of the better teams in the country in not allowing rim runs. SQ shows they are 10th in the country in frequency of shots at the rim by their opponents. Purdue wants to bait their opponents to shoot threes with a close out defender on the way. Arizona is certainly capable of hitting outside shots, but will they want to get out of their normal playstyle? The Wildcats are 363rd in the country in 3PT attempt rate. I believe that Arizona will still find success in the halfcourt (this team is fucking awesome), but I believe that Purdue stylistically has a great chance to be competitive. Especially when you consider the Boilermakers still have the #1 rated KenPom offense for the season. The short term looks great too as you can see below from our friends at CBB Analytics (posted 3/26):
Purdue is a veteran team. Many of these players have seen a Final Four and a national title game. The moment will not be too big for them. This is a team that is also hot after rolling through the Big 10 conference tournament. A conference which has proven to be the best in the country after the way the tournament has shaken out. I love the profile to keep this game close. I do ultimately think that Arizona gets through this stressful test that Purdue will present, but give us the points in what will be a tight finish.
Score Prediction: Arizona 79 – Purdue 75
Michigan -7.5 : Kicking myself for not having the stones to back the Vols yesterday. I saw that result coming with a lot of the stylistic tendencies with Joshua Jefferson off of the floor for Iowa State. I just had too much respect for the Cyclones to go all in and place a wager on Tennessee. Credit to Rick Barnes for silencing some of his haters (me at times) by finally winning a 2nd weekend game as an underdog. Fun to see.
It was a great performance from Tennessee, but unfortunately the muscle that they used against Iowa State will fall flat tomorrow against the Wolverines. The Vols doubled up Iowa State in offensive rebounds and second chance points. Largely due to Iowa State playing undersized Nate Heise with the large bulk of what would have been Jefferson’s minutes. Michigan will certainly not have that problem. The Wolverines are 9th in the country in effective height. They will hold their own on the glass with Tennessee.
Without Tennessee’s greatest strength at their disposal, I don’t see many paths to victory in this game. The Wolverines are coming into tomorrow with the #1 rated defense on KenPom. If Tennessee’s second chance points are not in play at a premium, that is where their 143rd rated effective FG % and 235th rated turnover % rear their ugly heads. The shooting data is also really bad when you break it out. 175th in 3PT%, 149th in 2PT %, 287th (!!!) in FT %. I just cannot see how Tennessee will score efficiently enough to keep this game competitive against the best defense in the country. Especially when they aren’t a high variance 3PT shooting team that can flip a game upside down. The Vols are 329th in the country in 3PT rate.
Michigan early and often here. My favorite matchup of the Elite 8 round. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Michigan 82 – Tennessee 67
UConn +5 : It feels like overkill to have two plays on Sunday and both being labeled as **Best Bets**, but that is how highly I rate these wagers. They just so happen to be played on the same day in the Elite 8. UConn is very live to win this game.
The Huskies have started to make some threes! This is the major area that was lacking down the stretch when UConn had struggled. Karaban, Ball and Mullins all making at least two three pointers each last night was crucial in getting this team across the finish line against a really good Michigan State team. If the Huskies hit 9 threes (or more) against Duke like they did last night, personal guarantee from 3PS that they win this game.
Duke is definitely showing cracks in the armor down the stretch. The turnover bug is becoming a big problem. The Blue Devils are now 124th in the country in turnover % after allowing 26 turnovers over the last two games. The TCU and St. John’s full-court heat really made the Blue Devils panic. So much so that Scheyer was forced into playing Caleb Foster 19 minutes last night to steady the ship.
The heavy ice and scooter is not a great sign for me. This could definitely be preventative and not reactive. I get that. But I still have a hard time believing that Caleb Foster will be able to be influential for the the 2nd game in 3 days dealing with this issue. Hurley and his incredible staff will certainly take note of how Cayden Boozer and the Blue Devils have dealt with intense on/off ball pressure this tournament. You can believe the heat will be turned up again today. Kinda related – kinda not related: Ngongba also is NOT healthy. This is not the same player that we saw in the regular season. These two guys being banged up is finally going to catch up with Duke here.
A big blemish on the UConn resume is their FT%. They are only 209th in the country in that regard. We don’t have to worry about a huge discrepancy in that area in this matchup though. Duke is only 175th and was 15-24 against St. Johns. I know this is where Duke has been buttering their bread in this tournament with an enormous amount of FT attempts, but I think UConn has a great chance to get close to Duke in this category today.
The UConn defense is the final feather in the cap for this handicap. The Huskies are rated as the 6th best defense in the country according to Shot Quality. SQ also ranks them 4th in shots attacking the rim (important for Boozer) and 9th against 3PT shooting. I think that Duke has been so “Boozer Bully Ball” reliant in this tournament that the best coaching staff in the country will be able to defensively scheme this game into a UConn victory. Give us the points, but this will be the upset of the Elite 8.
Score Prediction: UConn 69 – Duke 68
————————————
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 