(photo: Getty Images)
NCAA Tournament Record: 18-14
NCAA Tournament Best Bet Record: 8-4
Race to 10 Plays: 12-8 ; +6.1 pizzas
What a second weekend it was!! We went on a scorching hot 5-1 run on Best Bets! 8-4 on the overall card for the weekend. We also added more pizza. And most importantly …. got our Illini to Indy!
It goes without saying, but this should be a phenomenal Final Four.
Michigan and Arizona are coming into tomorrow’s action as the #3 and #4 teams in the history of the KenPom adjusted net rating database. It dates back to 1997. Illinois also is coming in rated as the highest offensive efficiency team in the history of the database. Oh, and the fourth team is going for their 3rd title in four years. What a group!
We have a chance at something really special here. This would be the 3rd time in the last four years that we have predicted the winner of the NCAA Tournament upon bracket release. We hit UConn 16-1 for Hurley’s first title. We backed Florida in the preseason last year at 60-1 and it was a no brainer to roll with them through the tournament once the bracket was released. And this year we picked the Illini at 24-1 to be our champion. This price allows y’all to begin your hedging processes if you would like. For the record, I am holding firm. This team is special. I believe in the way they are performing. I am riding with our boys.
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4/4 Card :
- Illinois -1.5 (6:09pm ET – TBS/truTV/HBO Max) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
- Michigan/Arizona 1H under 74 (8:49pm – TBS/truTV/HBO Max) (Caesars)
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Race to 10 – Pizza Plays (12-8 ; +6.1 pizzas):
- Illinois -125 (DK)
- Michigan -110 (Caesars)
- Unofficial Ice Cream Sprinkles Play: Michigan/Arizona 1H Tie – +1500 (DK) – can find by going to Halves ; Winning Margin – Listed Half
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Our remaining tournament futures (+2.8u on these for the tourney):
- Illinois title winner: +2400
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Illinois -1.5 : I predicted this exact Final Four in my bracket. In doing so, I had already thought in my mind what would go down in a potential rematch between these two teams. After watching the first two weekends, I am even more confident.
Illinois is currently rated #1 all-time in the KenPom adjusted offensive rating database. Yes, the offensive efficiency has been up across the board this season.. but this is still one of the better offenses that we have ever seen in the college game. This evolution and rise in the offensive efficiency rating actually was spawned from the beat down Illinois suffered to UConn back all of the way in November.
This was a turning point for Brad Underwood and staff. Since then, Boswell’s usage has gone down significantly and Petrovic & Lee are consistent DNP’s. The emergence of Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic has completely changed the game.
Mirkovic excelling in the point-forward position is the reason why the Illini are on this run. His calm & poised approach to facilitating is the reason why the Illini are Top 10 in the country in not turning the ball over. Wagler also brought a much needed ball handler/scorer combo in the P&R game that frees up driving lanes for Stojakovic and lobs/easy passes to the Ivisic brothers. He can also dish the rock as well!
(credit: CBB Analytics)
Illinois has been phenomenal at rebounding the basketball all season. They are 3rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, and 28th in the defensive. We also have already mentioned that they don’t turnover the basketball. The graphic above from CBB Analytics has been a great tool to predict success of teams in the tournament over the years. Illinois is right where we would want them to be. The only problem (if you had to nitpick) with this team for the majority of the season was on the defensive end.
The switch was flipped after the overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big 10 Tournament. After an up-and-down 1st round game against a majorly inferior Penn team, the Illini have held VCU to 35% from the field, Houston to 34% from the field, & Iowa to 38% from the field. Not only are they more engaged (admitted by our friend David above), but their style of defense really plays in a tournament setting when possessions are extended. Illinois does not turn opponents over because they are not gambling to get into passing lanes. They want to stay at home, pack the middle, and dare you to shoot over their length. That brings me a major reason why I believe the Illini have an edge over UConn. The Huskies just flat out cannot shoot. Since March 1st, UConn is 289th in the country in 3PT % per Barttorvik.com. They are also shooting just 29% from distance in the tournament. The Huskies can also struggle at the line. UConn is 210th in the country in free throw % (Illinois 16th). The shooting percentages of UConn will be their downfall.
I fear that a lot of possessions will look like this from UConn if they have to abandon shooting the three. Tarris Reed Jr. bully ball is not going to work against the length of Illinois in a NCAA Tournament setting. Also … **whispers** Reed is due for his patented foul trouble. If that occurs early in the 1H, this could be a wire-to-wire.
We spoke about how great the Illinois offense is. After watching the Duke tape again, UConn could be in a world of hurt on the defensive end. Illinois and Duke are not two teams that you would think about running similar action off of the top of your head, but upon rewatching some of the Duke/UConn game I saw some key action that Duke ran to success that I feel like Illinois will be able to capitalize on. Running the jumbo screen action at the top of the key to get Malachi Smith/Silas Demary Jr. trailing Wagler/Boswell/Stojakovic (like Boozer in the clip) on the way to the rim is definitely something that Illinois will look to exploit. I am not sure why Duke got away from getting Cayden driving downhill, but Jon Scheyer doesn’t have many answers for us. It was just a lot of draining the clock and then letting Cameron Boozer try to make something special happen at the end of the possession. Duke easily would be in Indy if they had stuck with their initial game plan.
Let’s face it. Duke choked that game away. They had a stranglehold against UConn and just let their foot of of the gas like a Scheyer coached team does in these moments. Illinois is the better team here. I am trusting them to get over the line like Duke could not. I also believe that the defensive scheme to have an opponent shoot over length is bad matchup for the brick throwing Huskies. Free throws will matter in a big way in a low-possession Final Four game. There is a sizable edge there as well for Illinois on those percentages. This is a Best Bet. The Illini make it to Monday.
Score Prediction: Illinois 73 – UConn 68
Michigan/Arizona 1H under 74 : A lot is said about the offensive firepower for both of these teams. Rightfully so. Truthfully, I am more in awe of their defenses. Michigan is rated #1 in the KenPom adjusted defensive rating & Arizona is 2nd. Elite.
Jim from 3MW points out the main reason for the success of these teams in the tweets above. You just do not get easy looks at the rim. Both had Top 15 average 2PT distance attempt rates, and both are Top 3 in 2PT % allowed.
I am intrigued by the matchup of the Arizona offense vs the Michigan defense. The Wildcats are uber elite at scoring at the rim and/or getting fouled. It is their bread and butter and they don’t stray away from it. Arizona is 363rd in the country in 3PT attempt rate. A nugget that I uncovered on KenPom makes me believe we might get a slower start that expected from these two teams from a pace perspective. While Michigan ranks 22nd in adjusted tempo, their average possession length defensively is actually 311th in the country. I think the Arizona possessions that aren’t in transition may drain the shot clock in the early going. Michigan is not going to let them easily penetrate and get what they want inside. Arizona has proven time and time again that they will not get baited into shooting a high volume of threes. It could take quite of bit of time for Arizona to find the shot they want early in this game. We actually saw a very similar scenario play out in the Elite 8 against a Purdue team that was 327th in average defensive possession length, 17th in average 2PT attempt distance, and were 318th in opponent 3PT attempt rate. Arizona only scored 31 points in the 1H before figuring things out and pouring an avalanche on the Boilermakers in the 2H.
I am backing both defenses to bring the energy in the early going. I also love the pace angle on the Arizona possessions in the 1H. Lets take the 1H under and hopefully enjoy some 2H fireworks!
- If you are wanting a lean on a side in this game, it is Michigan. Only a very slight lean. Nowhere near confident enough to place a wager. Sorry to sit on the fence here. Just not many stones to turnover to find an edge. Praying for an all-time classic!
Score Prediction: 1H Michigan 35 – Arizona 35
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 