North Alabama +29.5 (9:00pm – SEC Network) (Can get this line pretty much everywhere)
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North Alabama +29.5 : Just one play today. Plug your nose.
I have been pretty spot on with my preseason blog. It is VERY early, but everything seems to be trending just as I predicted. The one exception is Auburn. I had them outside of my preseason Top 10. That was foolish & I was wrong. They are the real deal & a lock inside of the Top 10 teams in the country. Today’s play is not a “fade” due to my preseason thoughts. This is a play in support of my thoughts of North Alabama. Just wanted to get that out of the way before breaking this one down.
The opening line was justified for this matchup. Auburn has been kicking the shit out of inferior opponents. However, the steam that the public has pushed this number to has turned this into a punch-back scenario for me. 29.5 is simply way too high. KenPom is projecting a 25 point win. That is more in my line of thinking. The North Alabama offense is better than Kent State and Vermont’s at this point in the season. You can yell at me all that you want. That is just a fact. This fact is supported by KenPom offensive efficiency ratings & Shot Quality data as well. Those teams are very likely reach a higher ceiling later than UNA, but as of November 18th – that is not the case. North Alabama is getting 7 full points more than Kent State. That doesn’t make sense to me.
This profile of North Alabama’s offense from Shot Quality (pictured above) is important to take note of. These are key areas that will keep you competitive *at times* against a team where the talent gap is a massive disadvantage. Make your threes. Don’t turn the ball over. Take advantage of the Auburn turnovers. That should be enough to keep us under 30.
Lane’s 32 points led the Lions back from a 20 point deficit last time out to force OT (we love that fight in our dog) against Samford & Bucky Ball. He has improved on his scoring totals every year & seems to be having a breakout season. Having a guard like this when you are getting close to 30 points as an underdog is a necessity. Especially with the opportunity for late buckets against the Auburn reserves. We will need a big scoring night from Jacari to get us home. Lane grew up in Alabama so I am sure this is one he has been looking forward to for quite some time.
The value in this spread has pushed into Best Bet category for me. As scary as it is with this game being played in The Jungle … this is a Best Bet.
I am happy to not be writing another sad boy paragraph to you guys like I had to do in Week 1. We were dominant outside of Saturday. Even with Saturday, we had a few hooks go the other way against us this week to keep us from a 22-13 week. It was also nice to start hitting again on the Best Bets. I know that some of you only take that play – or – add an extra unit on that play. I needed to do better on those for you guys, and we did! Let’s keep that momentum rolling into week three.
I am going to be boots on the ground at the Charleston Classic this week:
(photo: ESPN Events)
This is an excellent field & I am excited to bring y’all some fun content (& hopefully some inside scoops)! There are a few smaller & offshore markets offering futures on the winner of this MTE. I like Vanderbilt in the +800 range if this is ever offered where you wager. Nevada is coming into this tournament hot hot hot, but I love the way the Dores matchup with the Pack & I also would like them in a a semifinal vs either Seton Hall or VCU. Mark Byington (Charleston homecoming) is going to go Curt Cignetti on everyone’s ass this year! – Pour one out for all of our JMU friends.
Florida -5 (6:00pm – ACC Network) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
TCU/Michigan over 150.5 (6:00pm – FS1) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
UNCW/SC Upstate under 157 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Elon +5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Penn State -5.5 (7:30pm – Peacock) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Maryland -1.5 (8:00pm – FS1) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Iowa -4 (8:30pm – BTN) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
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Florida -5 : Florida’s offense is the key in this matchup today. The focus for us will be the three point line. Florida State is 300th in the country to start the year in 3PT rate allowed. They are also 343rd in the country in open three rate allowed per Shot Quality. The Gators are ready to chomp on that (yikes, I can do better than that). Florida comes into this game ranked 23rd in 3PT efficiency. Walter Clayton Jr. is going to have a field day creating for himself and his teammates in this one.
Clayton Jr., Richard and Martin have all cleared 15 three point attempts through the first three games this year. I expect them to connect on many of them tonight. The Seminoles have only made 13 threes through 3 games. Jamir Watkins is the only player on the roster scoring in double figures.
FSU will try to win games with ISO scoring from Watkins + interior domination with length. Florida will be able to compete with Florida State in the interior. The Gators come into this game ranked 16th in offensive rebounding percentage per Shot Quality. Florida will be able to flex their strength better than the Seminoles will with theirs. I feel comfortable laying this number in a rivalry road game.
Score Prediction:Florida 82 – FSU 73
TCU/Michigan over 150.5 : We are receiving some nice CLV on this number. Jamie Dixon and Dusty May are going to let these guys fly. Pace is the most important factor in this play for me. Dixon changed his entire offensive philosophy over the last few years. The Horned Frogs have finished 48th and 64th in adjusted tempo the last two seasons. This comes after Dixon coach teams finished 230th or higher for 11 out of the previous 13 seasons. Frankie Collins (revenge game) was trained to run during the last few seasons with Bobby Hurley. He is already fitting in at the point & gelling with the Dixon offense. I expect him to keep his foot on the gas in this one.
Dusty May will definitely welcome tempo & he has the firepower to do so. The Wolverines have connected on 20 threes in their first two games. Tre Donaldson is who Dusty May grabbed in the portal to be his point guard. It is early, but this appears to have been a great find. He is pushing tempo and producing at an efficient level. I like the long term offensive future of this team if they can get their backcourt reserves up to speed quickly.
Pace, points, pleasure. Give us the over.
Score Prediction: Michigan 81 – TCU 75
UNCW/SC Upstate under 157 : The PPG and PPGA averages are gaudy with these two teams. UNCW is averaging 117.5 ppg and allowing 87.5. Upstate is scoring 80.8 and allowing 86.3. Yet, we see a total under 160. It is for good reason. Another pace play here.
UNCW will control this game. There is a decisive coaching edge in favor of the Seahawks with Takayo Siddle going against a debutant D1 HC. I expect Siddle to get the Seahawks settled back into the pace that he is comfortable playing in this game. Over the last three seasons UNCW has finished 236rd, 281st, and 306th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. As you can see, the offense is moving slower & slower as the years go by under Siddle. He has a methodical approach with intricate sets that is very effective against mid-major opposition. He was able to finish 65th in KenPom’s adjusted offense even with that tempo number a season ago. UNCW doesn’t need to run to get what they want, and I expect Siddle to slow this game down to get Upstate out of rhythm. I really like this play. Give us the under.
Score Prediction: UNCW 79 – Upstate 68
Elon +5 : Guys, I think this Elon team is sneaky good. Having a 2H lead against UNC is probably the peak of their ceiling … but this team has some real pieces. The Simpkins twins are DAWGS. They play with the Brooklyn toughness that we are used to seeing from NYC guards, and they do so many little things right. Let’s take advantage of backing these guys before the rest of the world finds out. Nick Dorn is also an extremely versatile player for a program of this caliber. He is a 6’7 wing that has knocked down 7 triples through the first two games. That is not a fluke. He averaged 2 makes per game as a freshman last season while shooting 36.4%. To cap it off, the Phoenix also have a 7’4 monster. Matthew Van Komen is a big man who has spent time at both Utah and Saint Mary’s. He is back from numerous injuries and already making a massive impact defensively and on the glass.
Gardner-Webb is not good. Shot Quality gave them a predicted 6% chance to win the only game they have won this season based on the SQ Score. I think Elon wins this game outright. Will add a little sprinkle on the ML.
Score Prediction:Elon 73 – Gardner-Webb 71
Penn State -5.5 : Yanic Konan Niederhauser. It is going to be very hard, but remember the name.
This 7’er is flourishing under Mike Rhoades. I think that he is going to be a massive issue for the Hokies on the glass. Mylyjael Poteat is getting the biggest minutes boost of his carrier this year for VT, but it is not translating to any more success in the rebounding department. That is going to be a major issue for Mike Young and the Hokies this season. They are very undersized outside of Poteat and will struggle to compete on the glass against major conference opponents.
The Nittany Lions are also stroking it from distance. 32 makes in three games. Virginia Tech’s greatest strength is getting open three point looks in the Mike Young offense. If Penn State is able to match (or beat) the Hokies in that department… this one could get ugly.
This is a neutral site game in Baltimore. No edge for either fan base. I expect Penn State to handle business. Comfortable laying the points here.
Score Prediction: Penn State 80 – Virginia Tech 69
Maryland -1.5 : This is my favorite play of the night. A freshman will be the key.
Marquette is getting absolutely worn out in the post to start this season. The eye test is confirmed by Shot Quality data:
The graphic above is specifically for shots attacking the rim. Ben Gold is atrocious defensively & Derik Queen is licking his chops at this matchup. It is not often that you see personal “call outs” in the college game, but Queen did not shy away from speaking his mind on the matchup with Gold tonight. It was something along the lines of “he only wants to shoot”. Queen is not wrong. This is a very juicy matchup for Queen and Julian Reese. Marquette definitely has the backcourt edge, but Maryland has closed the gap on that a bit this year. Ja’Kobie Gillespie and Selton Miguel were big time contributors on good teams and have seamlessly transitioned into this Terrapin offense. It is also great to see Rodney Rice flourishing. He was a highly touted recruit that could never find his footing at Virginia Tech. Rice is averaging 16.7 ppg out of the gate & looks to be having a breakout season.
I believe that Maryland is a guarantee to win both the rebounding & points in the paint categories. The Terps have enough in the backcourt to take away some of the Marquette advantage there. That is enough for me to back them in this fiery home spot. College Park will be rocking. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Maryland 79 – Marquette 70
Iowa -4 : The homecoming for Brock Harding and Owen Freeman.
Iowa’s matchup tonight with Washington State is being played in Moline, IL. This is where the Hawkeyes star center and point guard grew up. Very cool situation. Obviously, these two are familiar with this arena and will feel more than at home with tons of family and friends in attendance. This was only just a tiny tiny sliver of my handicap though. The advantage for the Hawkeyes goes way beyond where the game is being played.
David Riley has instantly brought his EWU approach to Wazzou. It is going to be awesome to see what he can do with a step-up in programs. This offense is off of the charts already against mid-major competition. However, this is going to play right into the hands of Fran McCaffery. We have seen this song and dance over the years. The way to beat Iowa is to slow them down and get their shooters out of rhythm. When you run with these guys, you are more than likely going to lose. Especially when the Hawkeyes shooting is in good form. Update: it is in VERY good form. Iowa has connected on 41 (fourty one!!) threes through the first 3 games of this season. The pace of this game is going to lead to many open looks in transition. This will be a treat for all of you three point snipers out there.
The dominance of Owen Freeman cannot be understated as well. This is one of the best big men in the country. Wazzou has some length in the frontcourt, but I believe they will struggle with the versatility of Freeman. I think he nears a 20 & 10 performance in his homecoming.
The Hawkeyes simply outscore the Cougars tonight. We will lay the points!
Michigan State/Kansas under 150.5 (6:30pm – ESPN) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Purdue Fort Wayne -12.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
North Carolina Central +14.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
FAU +5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Georgia -10 (7:00pm – ESPN+/SECN+) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Kentucky +6.5 (9:00pm – ESPN) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Jackson Shelstad over 10.5 points (11:00pm – BTN) (FanDuel)
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Michigan State/Kansas under 150.5 : A lot of people will base their opinion on this total from the high scoring affair between KU and UNC on Friday. I see this pace playing a lot slower than most people think. Kansas tried at times at the beginning of the North Carolina game to slow the tempo down, but Carolina wouldn’t bite. It was conducive for Kansas to keep their foot on the gas when they saw how poorly UNC was getting back in transition. It will be a different story today. Why? I think Michigan State holds the key to that answer.
Sparty comes into this matchup ranked 246th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. I expect them to play even slower as the competition ramps up. The Spartans finished the year 309th in pace a season ago & 306th the season prior. It has always been a methodical offensive approach under Izzo, but reaching the 300’s in back to back seasons is definitely something to take note of. I also just simply love their defense. KenPom has the Spartans ranked 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and I think that is right on par where they will end up by season’s end. Michigan State has great on-ball pressure in the backcourt, and have significant length inside to protect the rim. The average height of the Spartans is 38th in the country per KenPom, and I am sure they would be even higher in the ranks if wingspans were included. The points per possession that Kansas will score tonight will dramatically drop from what they were able to get against the Tar Heels. I also think Michigan State will find it tough to score in their first ramp up in competition. Pair that with fewer possessions … and I think we are in line for an under, folks.
Score Prediction:Kansas 75 – Michigan State 70
Purdue Fort Wayne -12.5 : Our Mastodons!!! Those that were here with us last year will remember. We had a great late season run of betting Purdue Fort Wayne. The large majority of the roster is back this season. The Mastodons rank 3rd in minutes continuity from a season ago. I was tempted to pull the trigger in their last game on Friday against UCF. I am upset that I didn’t. PFW covered the spread with ease, and actually held a 64-60 lead late in that ball game.
Bethune Cookman’s defense is bad. Really bad. I expect a big night from the Mastodon offense, and that is why I think they can cover this hefty number. The Wildcats had a very nice result last time out. I could not believe the score when I was checking the box scores. Thankfully, Shot Quality provided us with the data to show that it was a lot of smoke and mirrors.
The Mastodons win this one going away.
Score Prediction: Purdue Fort Wayne 84 – Bethune Cookman 68
North Carolina Central +14.5 : This looks like the lone game of the 6 early adds that we are not going to gain CLV on. From the way this year has started in that regard … is it such a bad thing?
We bet on NCCU in their most recent outing. Gardner Webb shot over 70% for the entire game. I am not even remotely joking. Could the Eagles defense have been better? Yes. Did they receive some of the worst defensive shot luck that we will see this season? Also, yes.
1.47 PPS is not of this planet. At least we know we will not be up against that today. NCCU actually showed a ton of fight to be dealing with that. They won the offensive rebounding battle, the turnover battle (22 to 10), had more assists, equaled in free throws, etc. Only losing by 6 points while getting 1.47 PPS dropped on your head is impressive.
High Point is the real deal. They were in my preseason blog as my favorite mid-major. However, I have seen a little bit of cracks in the defensive ability to start. I am sure part of that is coming from playing with big leads against bottom 50 teams in the country, but I think that leaves NCCU with a great chance to keep this final within the number. The Eagles can score. Give us the points.
Score Prediction: High Point 85 – NCCU 75
FAU +5.5 : All of us that are in deep in the weeds of the CBB realm know exactly what type of impact that John Jakus has had on the rise of the Baylor program. The Bears would not be where they are today (with a ring) without Jakus. Scott Drew will tell you that. It is so awesome to see that he has the Owls flying out of the gate with a complete roster overhaul upon his arrival. I watched a large chunk of their game on opening night because I was interested to see how both programs would handle their star coaches and players leaving. Boy, did I find out in a hurry. FAU covered a 6.5 point spread with a 33 point ass kicking of Indiana State. Shot Quality even had it graded as an 18 point win with their data. I was very impressed. This team has a ton of cohesion and that is evident in this post-game video following that win:
I do not think I am alone on an island in thinking that FAU has the better roster and coach in this matchup. Maybe I am. If so, leave me with a six pack of Edmunds Oast & a way to stream this game and I will be just fine. Let’s grab the points here. I think there is a little too much of the opening night win over A&M baked into this line for UCF. Should be a fun and close game. FAU has a great shot to win outright IMO. Go Owls.
Score Prediction:FAU 77 – UCF 75
Georgia -10 : This was my favorite play of the day. The market agrees. This is pushing all of the way to -15.5 at some spots. We sniped this one early and it is paying off!
UNF has ran very lucky this season. You will get that from a team that shoots as many threes as they do. This was very evident in their win over Charleston Southern when we had the Bucs at +8.
The Ospreys followed that up on Sunday with another 1.28 PPP day against Georgia Tech to upset the Yellow Jackets. The regression to the mean will be coming soon. I am not buying this 3-0 start, and I was eager to get to the ticket window early to try to take advantage of that. I believe we did.
What the hell is North Florida going to do with Asa Newell?
Hyperactive college debut for Georgia's Asa Newell. The 19-year-old forward generated easy baskets and asserted a defensive presence with his terrific motor, fluidity, and length at 6-foot-10.
The Ospreys rank 294th in the country in height per KenPom. Newell has already hit the ground running in the college game and should be able to have his way offensively, defensively, and on the glass in this one. I really like the 1-2 punch of Newell and RJ Godfrey in the post long term when attacking the glass. Godfrey came over from Clemson and is instantly fitting right in averaging 8.5 rebounds per game. I am projecting many second chance opportunities for these two.
The new look Georgia backcourt is not afraid to let it fly from distance. They have 52 three point attempts through two games. Newcomer, Dakota Leffew, has already connected on 9 triples.
6'5 SG Dakota Leffew vs. Texas Southern:
• 23 PTS • 3 REB • 3 AST • 5/10 3PT
The Mount St. Mary's transfer (17.6 PPG on 36.5% 3PT last season) is a HIGH LEVEL shooter & scorer who is going to provide some real firepower for the Dawgs this season. @Kotaleffew1… pic.twitter.com/D94IlAR6Pk
If they cancel out, or outperform, North Florida from distance, then this one will be a snoozer. (in a good way!)
UNF played at Georgia Tech on Sunday, so this is an extended road trip. I expect their good fortune to run out tonight. Dawgs by close to 20. You know what, I am just going to do it. Feeling myself. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Georgia 88 – North Florida 70
Kentucky +6.5 : The Duke hype is a bit out of control at the moment. I love their pieces & their potential for long term success this season. However, I am pretty adamant in stating that Duke should not be favored to win a neutral site game over UK by close to 7 points this early in the season.
Kentucky is deep. Very deep. The Wildcats have a 10 man rotation (we will see how much that tightens up tonight) that has 7 guys averaging double figures through their first two games. The competition has been really bad, but scoring 100+ points in consecutive games to start a year is definitely something to pay attention to.
Koby Brea has been on fire for Kentucky to start the year!
His projected 3PT% is so good right now that there's a larger gap between him and the 2nd best shooter in the country than there is between 2nd and 50th at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax. pic.twitter.com/bCfdyC9mF9
There is a little bit of everything in this roster makeup. Kobe Brea is hands down the best shooter in the country. Analytics (above) and eye test will both tell you that. Lamont Butler is a seasoned point guard with national title game experience. Amari Williams is blossoming into one of the best rebounders in the country after many successful seasons at the mid-major level. Jaxson Robinson and Otega Oweah are great scorers. Andrew Carr is one of the better stretch 4’s in the country. Brandon Garrison, Butler, Oweh, etc are all excellent defenders. The list goes on and on. I am just in love with the roster makeup of veterans. That will play a major factor tonight when Duke is relying on their youth to carry the scoring burden.
This isn’t a normal sleepy neutral site game that you get earlier in the year. This is in Atlanta. A major travel spot for BBN and the Blue Devil fans. I was at the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta a season ago. I saw what BBN is made up of in that area. It will be a wild atmosphere. I will side with the veterans getting the points here. This is a true toss up for me.
Score Prediction: Duke 81 – Kentucky 80
Jackson Shelstad (Oregon) over 10.5 points : Love this spot for Jackson tonight. Shelstad cleared this number in 10 out of his last 13 games last season. We are getting a great number here due to him not reaching 10 points in each of his first two games to start the year. I expect his usage to go up tonight. He will have his way with the Pilots defense. Portland currently ranks 349th in KenPom’s defensive rating after giving up 94 points to a weakened UCSB roster. Not overthinking this one. Shelstad gets his season going in a big way tonight.
Have to be accountable and admit when you suck (unlike most of the X capping community). I sucked this week. Hand up & I’m sorry. Very tough start out of the gate. We are struggling with the Best Bet luck at the beginning of the season as we did a year ago. That is what is keeping us down. A little hiatus got us back on track last season, so I am going to take that approach again. There will not be a Best Bet every day. Maybe a couple a week until we find our footing there. I am not concerned with my handicapping for this season one bit. We have placed 25 bets and have gained CLV in 17 of them. Seventeen!!! Some games we have even seen 5 or 6 points of value on our side. We have only lost value before tip in 3 games. That is going to be successful long term. I also know that we will be successful because we do it every. single. year. This week will be a blip on the radar for our entire year. Just gotta remember that. Thank you for those sticking by me after the tough run, and here’s to going on a heater this week!
Took a breather yesterday and today. Back with cards starting tomorrow. Stay tuned tonight for some early add’s for the 11/12 slate. Will post those on Twitter/X. Let’s snipe!
UNLV +2 (6:00pm – MWN) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Rice +10.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel & ESPNBet)
Houston-2.5 (9:30pm – ESPNU) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
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*** Shorter write-up than normal. Having to hit the road today and not enough time to get all my thoughts/stats out there ***
UNLV +2 : The wrong team was favored at the open. The books are still relying on KenPom for their handicapping it appears. I had this game as UNLV -2, so it was nice to get this one locked in at the reverse. There has been steam this morning to push UNLV to a 1 point favorite. We have rocked it out with CLV this season. Hopefully it starts to pay off.
Let’s all be real. Memphis was let off of the hook in their opener. Missouri was in complete control of that game and then completely melted once Memphis went to a full-court press. It was more of a Mizzou collapse than a Memphis win. The lack of a true point guard reared it’s ugly head for Missouri. UNLV won’t have that problem. DJ Thomas from UNLV is the REAL deal. We talked about him a bunch last season as a freshman, and this should be a monster year for the sophomore. He had 17 points with 7 assists in their opener. More importantly, he had 0 turnovers. DJ will be able to break whatever Memphis throws at them. The poor execution on offense will catch up to Memphis today. UNLV wins this one
Score Prediction:UNLV 78 – Memphis 75
Rice +10.5 : Not sure how much of a hot take this is, but I see FSU as one of the bottom power conference teams this season. The Seminoles were able to address frontcourt length per usual in the offseason, but they completely ignored the backcourt once again. This team is going to struggle mightily from distance this year. This was evident in their 4-22 performance from three against NKU. I don’t think there is enough firepower in this FSU team to blow out Rice. I like the way the Owls matchup with Florida State. There is a ton of length in the frontcourt and they have some height at the guard/wing positions as well. I think the Owls will be able to take the fight to FSU in regards to the glass and getting to the free throw line (38 free throw attempts in opener). They are an FSU Jr. in that regard, but with better options from the 3 point line. They can keep this within 10.
Score Prediction: FSU 80 – Rice 74
Houston -2.5 : This is one of my favorite plays of this young season. I have had my eye on it for a while. They market seems to agree. Major CLV heading our way on this one as well. Houston is unequivocally the best team in the country in my opinion. Check out my preseason blog for my thoughts on that. I would lay 2.5 points with them in any non-road game scenario. I think they are that good.
We were on Auburn with our only Best Bet hit of the season earlier this week. By the way, I am very pissed of by my performance in that regard. We are going to get that corrected real quick. Let’s go on a 5 win Best Bet streak and get that record to 6-4 through the first 10. Ok, back to what you are here to read. The Tigers won by 51 points in a bludgeoning of Vermont. Their physicality and athleticism was a major reason why I felt comfortable in laying the points there and boy oh boy did that pay off. The edge completely disappears against Houston. I believe Auburn is going to find it really hard to get Johnni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara going in this game due to the frontcourt and wing defenders that Houston possesses. Big JoJo Tugler is healthy again and looking better than ever before. I am also hearing that Francis is likely to go in this one.
NC A&T/Wake Forest over 148 (7:00pm – ESPN+/ACC Extra) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night. Make sure to have the notifications on so you don’t miss early adds)
NC A&T/Wake Forest over 148 : We sniped this one. Pun very intended. This total has steamed all the way to 154 at Draft Kings at the time that I am writing this post. Bonkers. I loved this bet before the steam, so let’s break this one down.
This is going to be an absolute feast for the Wake Forest offense. The box score didn’t look great against Coppin, but thankfully we have Shot Quality as a resource.
Wake Forest was able to reach a SQ score of 81.6 points in that game. Hunter Sallis should already be a pro. Sallis and Steve Forbes have a great relationship and that played a major part in his return (along with a nice pay bump from the NIL collective). Here is a great thread on Twitter from Ethan Alexander showing his impact in night one:
The North Carolina A&T defense should be really (really) bad this season. KenPom is projected 307th in the country and I think that is about right. There is a major weakness in this team that Wake Forest is built to attack. Transition defense. The Aggies were 330th in the country in defending in transition per Shot Quality. Allowing 1.27 SQ PPP. That is an area where Sallis & Hildreth can really attack. They are both great at finishing at the rim and drawing fouls. The Aggies were also 356th in defending shots at the rim & 347th in defensive rebounding. It will be a huge night for Biliew, Spillers and Reid in the paint. This Demon Deacons are drooling for this matchup.
North Carolina A&T is capable of putting the ball in the net. Landon Glasper is very inefficient as a volume shooter, but I like his chances to reach a number near his 20.9 ppg average a year ago in what will be a blowout. The Aggies are also excited in what they have with Jahnathan Lamothe. Lamonthe is a Maryland transfer and scored 27 points in their opener against a non-D1 opponent.
Pace and poor defense will get Wake Forest into the 90’s tonight. Glasper and the Aggies will take care of the rest. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:Wake Forest 91 – NC A&T 63
Charleston Southern +8 : Those who have been riding my plays for a while might remember this matchup from last season. It was also on the opening Thursday of the year. I was boots on the ground. Literally. Shout out Buccaneer Fieldhouse. We gained tremendous CLV on the Bucs before the tip and were leading at the half. Everything was going great!
And then..
Chaz Lanier happened. Lanier was a guy that averaged 4.7 ppg in 19 minutes a game as a junior the season prior. He was not on the radar of anyone, including myself. We got introduced that night. He exploded for 30 points and carried the Ospreys to an outright victory. Lanier went on to average nearly 20 ppg and transferred to Tennessee in the offseason. Without Lanier, I think Charleston Southern has a chance for revenge here.
The two other best players on the court that night are returners for Charleston Southern. Taje’ Kelly and RJ Johnson are phenomenal players at this level of college basketball. Lamar Oden Jr. was also an incredible portal add for the Bucs. He is about as high of a caliber player as a program like this can get. Lamar was a former starter and Drexel and played in some high level games in the Colonial. The size and physicality of Kelley and Oden Jr. will be a problem for UNF. Kelly exposed them in inside of the arc a season ago. Charleston Southern suffered an opening night loss to Clemson, but scored 1.06 PPP against what should be a top tier defense. I think the Bucs will find some offensive success tonight.
North Florida is getting too much love in the market for the opening night upset win over South Carolina. The Gamecocks were a tournament team a season ago, but that roster just does not have the same punch without Meechie Johnson and Ta’Lon Cooper. The Ospreys live and die by the three. We know that. If they go scorched earth from distance tonight, we likely lose. However, I like what Charleston brings in the perimeter defending department. They only allowed opponents to shoot 31% from distance a season ago. The Bucs were also 10th in the country in opponent contested three point shooting percentage per Shot Quality. I like this edge.
Once this number reached 8, it was a pirates life for me. Give me the Buccaneers and the points.
Score Prediction: North Florida 75 – Charleston Southern 71
Cal Poly 1H under 30.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel)
San Francisco 1H -12 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Ty Johnson over 20.5 points (10:00pm – BTN) (FanDuel)
————————————
Cal Poly 1H under 30.5 : I am in lockstep with the preseason KenPom rating on this Mustangs squad. They have a very solid chance of finishing as a bottom 10 team in Division 1 basketball this year. Cal Poly really only had three guys that could score with any kind of consistency a year ago. With Kobe Sanders and Quentin Jones leaving the program, that only leaves Jarred Hyder. Hyder shot 32.5% from the field a year ago. Woof. This offense is going to be putrid. There was no help in this department via the portal. Unless there are several diamonds in the rough from the freshman ranks, I do not see a competent basketball team.
I also like the potential of the Dons defense this year. KenPom has San Francisco in the Top 100 in preseason defensive rating, and I think they could push to get even closer to a Top 75 group. This is a very tall and lengthy group. Especially with the addition of Carlton Linguard Jr. from UTSA. Another 7’er to add to the mix.
The Mustangs ranked 356th out of 362 teams in the country a season ago in 1H points per game. San Francisco ranked 39th in opponent 1H points per game. I am excited to attack this angle tonight. This is my BestBet.
San Francisco 1H -12: All of the information above leads me to believe that this is a good play as well. The Dons will get a ton of 2nd chance looks early on in this game. The size and physicality is a major edge. Marcus Williams and Malik Thomas are also returning in the backcourt. These guys can score the rock. Give me the Dons early and quick in this one.
Score Prediction:1H San Francisco 42 – Cal Poly 27
Ty Johnson over 20.5 points : Ty Johnson will be challenging for the Division 1 scoring title this season. I would not be stunned to see him in the 18-19 FGA per game range. Jim Les will green light it. Johnson shared the backcourt with Eli Pepper (baller) for the Aggies squad over the last few seasons. They averaged 29.1 FGA between the two of them a season ago. Pepper has graduated and this leaves Johnson will full control of this offense.
Ty flipped the switch late in the year to turn into an even more prolific scorer than he was previously. Here were his averages over the last 10 games:
20.4 ppg
16.7 FGA per game
6.2 FTA per game (99th percentile on free throw attempts per 40 minutes in each of his two seasons at UC Davis)
I am a huge fan of the player, and I am an even bigger fan of what I think his usage will be tonight. Danny Sprinkle played a faster tempo last year at Utah State when he was able to acquire more talent. I think we see another step forward in the tempo department this year at Washington. I see the Huskies controlling the tempo and that should lead to more opportunities for Johnson. Lastly, Johnson only averaged 2.3 fouls per game a season ago. Should have a great chance at 35ish minutes.
Santa Clara -1.5 : First blog of the year. Let’s get it! The Broncos open the season at the Pentagon against Saint Louis as a part of the Field of 68 Showcase. This spread is telling, right?
The “Billi Ball” hysteria is alive and well in Saint Louis. The Billikens were able to persuade Josh Shertz to make the leap from Indiana State to be their next head coach. Shertz has gained tons of fans from around the country with his high powered mid-major offense over the last few seasons. He was also able to bring “Cream Abdul Jabar” (Robbie Avila) and Isaiah Swope with him via the transfer portal. This will be a very popular team in the market from the general public to start the year. Yet, Saint Louis finds themselves as underdogs in their opener. Let’s get into why.
Roster continuity at the mid-major level is something that you really have to pay attention to during this age of the transfer portal. Especially when you know that the group is led by an excellent coach. That is the case here with Herb Sendek. The Broncos are returning 5 out of their top 6 scorers from a season ago. In addition, this group also made up their top three rebounders and assisters. Fun fact about this Broncos group that people forget? They beat THREE tournament teams from a season ago in the non-con. Oregon, Washington State & Duquesne. Santa Clara was also pretty damn good down the stretch in conference play and finished 10-6 in the WCC before ending their season in the conference tournament semifinals to Saint Mary’s. I am trusting that this team will be ready to go again in the non-con and that their continuity gives them the edge in this matchup against a team that has changed so much. Get us going early, Broncos!
Side Note: Robbie Avila will be active for this game, but he has just returned to practice/exhibition play in the last week or so after suffering a “significant lateral ankle sprain”. I am not sure if this will be a factor or not, but something to note.
Score Prediction:Santa Clara 79 – Saint Louis 74
Troy -4.5 : The MAC/Sun Belt challenge is something special. This was one that I had my eye on for the majority of the offseason. Toledo has been a mainstay in the upper echelon of mid-major programs over the past 4 seasons. I am here to say that this will be a *very* down year by their recent standards. This roster is not appealing to me at all. The Rockets will not survive losing Maddox Jr, Moss and Cochran to the portal. The ballhandling and playmaking is a huge concern for me. This leads us into my favorite matchup edge here in this fixture. The Trojans are going to be able to heat this team up without question. Troy was 22nd in the country in forcing turnovers a season ago & the majority of the key defenders are back for the 24/25 season. Troy is favored in this matchup for good reason. This program also has two additional feathers in their cap that we look for. The Trojans were 13th in the country in free throw rate, and 27th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Keep your eye on Myles Rigsby. This was a freshman that I mentioned a ton a season ago. I believe we were one of the first outlets to really take notice of how special he is at this mid-major level. Rigbsy has a chance to be elite as a two-way player this season, and he will be the best player on the court tomorrow.
𝘽𝙪𝙞𝙡𝙩 𝘿𝙞𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 💪
Myles Rigsby was named to The Bracketeer’s All-American Watch List for the Non-Power Conferences.
Louisville -18.5 : Pat Kelsey, we are coming with you. Flush whatever memories you have of this Cardinals program in recent memory. I have seen firsthand in Charleston just how quickly Pat Kelsey can get things rolling.
This Louisville roster is just insane. I see offensive & defensive balance at every single level. It will be interesting to see how the minutes are distributed early in this season, but simply based on my opinion .. this team could go 12 deep. Not even joking. Morehead State’s roster is on the other end of the spectrum. Riley Minix is off to the Spurs organization, and the Eagles have also lost their other 4 top scorers from a season ago. The transfer portal was not kind to this team. Even with their success from a season ago, the OVC media took notice of this depleted roster and ranked the Eagles 5th in the preseason OVC poll.
We know that a Pat Kelsey team can hit the gas pedal. This should be a Top 20 offense in the country. The exhibitions have also provided examples that this defense could gel quicker than expected.
Louisville's pressure in the defensive backcourt has been outstanding.
Chucky Hepburn and Koren Johnson will do that to you.
Spalding has eight turnovers. Cards with six steals.
I am confident in laying this big of a number in the opener with Louisville due to those reasons.
Score Prediction: Louisville 86 – Morehead State 62
Missouri +5 : Boy, oh boy do I love this one. Missouri will win this game outright. This is my Best Bet.
I have the Missouri Tigers in the “Louisville tier” of a successful rebuild via the transfer portal. This team has MAJOR impact pieces to compete in the SEC this season; coming off of a year where they picked up ZERO conference wins! Dennis Gates was finally the coach that was able to pry Marques Warrick out of Northern Kentucky. He was ready for power conference basketball years ago. His elite ISO scoring will be a much needed addition to the Tigers. I also love what they are getting on the glass & defensively with transfers Mark Mitchell and Josh Gray. These guys are DUDES when attacking for rebounds. Mizzou really had no muscle in the paint a season ago and that was probably the biggest detriment to their team. The Tigers ranked 356th (!!!) in defensive rebounding. They were also 283rd in defending shots attacking the rim per Shot Quality.
Tony Perkins and Jacob Crews will also be monster impact transfers for this team as well. Crews will be relied upon to rebound from the wing, and Perkins will be the lockdown defender. In addition, these guys obviously bring a needed punch offensively to this team. I am excited to see Crews and Caleb Grill let it fly from three this season. Grill is returning from injury this season and already looks as good as he ever has from behind the arc.
I don’t love the roster construction from Penny at Memphis this season. I watched the entirety of their exhibition against UNC and I did not come away impressed at all. I see the ball “sticking” quite often in the flow of the offense. I also see a heavy dose of turnovers. Tony Perkins will be feasting on this for Mizzou. Memphis is also dealing with the same old shit that we are accustomed to. NIL drama, rumors of guys unenrolling and hitting the portal, etc. They should not be laying 5, even in a true home game, to this revamped Mizzou squad. Missouri is the better team and has the better coach. Tigers outright.
Not only is this a Best Bet for me, but this is also a play for Max Barr (@MaxBarrCBB). Max is an SEC-centric college basketball guru. I trust him heavily when it comes to this league, so it was great to see that we are on the same page. Here are his thoughts on the matchup!
“REVENGE. Memphis beat Missouri 70-55 in Columbia last year. Combine that with Missouri going winless in SEC play and you best believe Dennis Gates has been waiting for this one. You’ll be hard pressed to find a coach more hungry for a win than Gates.
DEPTH. Rare scenario where one teams’ rotation might be bigger than the oppositions’ available roster. Missouri is two deep, in some places three deep, at every position. Dain Dainja will cause defenses issues this year but not Missouri. Mizzou has seven players 6’8 or taller (Josh Gray 7’ 265lb, Peyton Marshall 7’ 300lb). Both size & depth heavily in favor of MIZ.”
Score Prediction: Mizzou 79 – Memphis 72
Arkansas State -5.5 : For the sake of time, I am not going to dive deep into this one. The reason why? This is almost an identical handicap to the Troy play. I have belief in a Sun Belt team with quality roster continuity to take down a MAC team that has been completely depleted from their recent success.
Arkansas State is a team that I believe heavily in. They were featured in my preseason blog as one of the teams I expect to finish way higher than their current KenPom preseason rating. I expect the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt this year. Lastly, this was a very hard place to play a season ago. Bryan Hodgson has this fan base fired up. It should be a great opening day atmosphere to help our handicap.
Arkansas State will be one of the best mid-major teams in the country this season.
They have the perfect mix of everything.
Double-digit scoring returners, all-league transfers, all-league transfers from their own league, stud freshmen.
Texas/Ohio State under 146.5 : I don’t like to take a ton of totals in the first week of the season because the hard metrics really drive my angles on them. However, I believe this has a real chance to be a low scoring game based on roster construction.
I don’t see this being a very good year for either program quite frankly. Where is the offensive identity going to come from for Texas? Kaluma, Pope and Mark are all ball dominant players in my opinion. I do not see sexy ball movement coming from this team. It will be a lot of ISO ball. I think that factor lends itself to a struggle out of the gates. I have similar worries about the Ohio State offense. Meechie Johnson is the epitome of a ball dominant guard. He was a major reason why South Carolina’s tempo was so low a season ago. Bruce Thornton already tries to dribble the ball through the ground, so I think this offense could struggle to find cohesion as well. Don’t get me wrong, Thornton is an excellent facilitator. I am not taking away anything from that. But he does appreciate a dribble haha.
Both teams also have really good defenders at their disposal. Shedrick and Weaver are excellent in that department for the Longhorns. We are also hearing that Tre Johnson could quickly develop into a great defender.
Last week Chendall Weaver said what most surprised him on Tre Johnson’s game was his defense. Here’s Coach Rodney Terry on Johnson’s defense.
Aaron Bradshaw and Sean Stewart should turn into excellent defenders for the Buckeyes after getting a minutes boost from their previous situations. I am smelling an under from a mile away on this one. Hopefully, we don’t get a first game of the season boost in adrenaline and send this pace over where we need it to be!
Score Prediction: Texas 71 – Ohio State 69
Towson +11.5 : This was dangerously close to a Best Bet. The Tigers are going to be very competitive in this game. Outside shot at the upset.
Towson is one of the better mid-major programs over the past few years that you haven’t heard about. They have been overshadowed by Pat Kelsey at CofC in the CAA, but this is a program that is coming off of three straight 20 win seasons. The Tigers are returning every contributor from a season ago outside of Charles Thompson Jr. They believe they had addressed his departure with Abdou Samb via the portal. I am excited to see this team run it back and I believe they have a serious chance to go dancing out of the CAA.
I am very familiar with Towson due to my ties with the Charleston program. Pat Kelsey thinks as highly of Pat Skerry as any coach in America. It is warranted. This team FIGHTS. The Tigers were 2nd (!!!) in the country in offensive rebounding percentage a season ago. They are physical for 40 minutes. That is something that I frankly saw this current edition of Saint Mary’s struggle with a season ago. Especially when Joshua Jefferson went down. With Jefferson transferring out to Iowa State and seemingly nobody on the roster to replace that role, I see the physicality of Towson being a huge advantage.
The Saint Mary’s offense is going to struggle mightily this season with the loss of Aidan Mahaney to UConn. His departure (in addition to Jefferson’s) was not addressed in the transfer portal. This is starting to feel like a Tony Bennett situation in Charlottesville. It is a slower burn in the WCC because Randy is such a good coach, but ignoring the portal is just not something that you can do in this day and age.
Saint Mary’s likely squeaks this one out, but this is a disaster opening day matchup for the Gaels.
As lame as it sounds, LFG just keeps ringing through my head. College basketball is back in our lives ONE WEEK from today! This will be my fifth year running this Twitter/X account & blog. So damn crazy to think about. What a ride it has been! Winning bets with all of you is a high that I just can’t get enough of. The best part about our little community? We haven’t clout farmed. Every single follow was gained organically & I love that. The interaction that we have through Twitter, DM’s and texts is way better than chasing monster follower numbers that gain no interaction. I appreciate all of you. Especially the ones that come and check out the blog on a regular basis.
Important – Please Read:
Let’s go ahead and get this out of the way and then we can get to the futures! I can’t lie guys.. I have toyed around with the idea of rolling out a paid subscription wall for my content. I was very close to making that call. The reasoning for that is this takes a lot of effort and time. Like, a lot. I also believe that I have separated myself from the large majority of the college basketball gambling community that does charge for picks. It would also make sense for me to do financially. However, I have decided to keep everything free for this season. It is the right call. I want all of y’all included in this run we are going to go on this season! I am going to start including a CashApp account (or something similar to that) at the end of every blog when the season gets rolling. My hope is that you guys can use this to thank me whenever you see fit. By NO means is this a requirement. Any contributions throughout the season will be greatly appreciated. Hopefully this idea allows us to keep everything free moving forward into future seasons. Alright. Enough of this boring shit. Let’s get into how we are going to dominate this game for a 5th year in a row!
Futures:
National Title Winners:
We are going with a four team portfolio this year. The first two tickets that we are going to ride with are our “title teams”. These teams will be Houston and Gonzaga. Additionally, we are going to take prices on two teams that I believe are criminally mispriced in the market. Those will be Florida and Xavier. The goal for the UF and Xavier plays will be to gain massive value on our tickets throughout the season and then look at hedging opportunities to make cash come tournament time. I will keep you posted later in the year when we get to that point!
Houston +1500 (DK):
Inject this attitude into my veins:
Kelvin Sampson made sure the University of Houston practiced before jetting out to Kansas City for Big 12 Basketball Media Day so UH player reps LJ Cryer, J'Wan Roberts and Emanuel Sharp wouldn't miss even one day of practice. That's staying true to Sampson culture.
The Houston Cougars have one goal in mind. That is cutting the nets down on the final Monday of the season. They are my pick to do so. Make no mistake about it, this is the number 1 team in the country. No matter what the polls say. They are properly priced at some of the books out there, but Draft Kings hanging out a 15/1 number is a massive mistake. A lot of people picked Houston to slide in their first year of power conference basketball a season ago. Quite the opposite happened. Houston finished the season ranked 2nd in KenPom and ran away with the Big 12 regular season title. The injury bug bit this team down the stretch, but that is just another motivational tool that Sampson will use to fire his guys up for this year. The Cougars are returning a very hungry and veteran heavy roster. Jamal Shead will be a massive loss. No doubt. But the Cougars return every other contributor from their dominant run from a year ago. This includes the return from injury for big Jojo Tugler. Tugler is one of the best rim protectors in the country and he was sorely missed at the end of last season with J’Wan Roberts dealing with injuries of his own. With the addition of Milos Uzan (OU transfer) to replace Shead, I believe this Houston team is in great shape to finish as the #1 defense in the country. Leading scorer, LJ Cryer, is entering his 5th season of college basketball. This guy just wins. Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp will keep this Houston offense in the top tier of the game. The Cougars finished 19th in offensive efficiency a year ago, and I think they have a chance to improve on that this season with the addition of Uzan. Let’s get a little mud in our blood. Houston is our title pick.
Gonzaga +2000 (FanDuel):
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are national title good this season. I don’t have them rated quite as highly as Houston, but at 20/1 .. we will gladly add this to our portfolio. This team got hottttt at the end of last season. They finally started to gel with all of the new pieces that Few brought into the fold. Unfortunately, the Zags ran into Zach Edey in the Sweet 16 and their season came to an end prematurely. The momentum from that run is going to propel this team in to a big big season. The Gonzaga frontcourt is going to be stout this year. Ike, Huff and Gregg are all returning. I also love the potential of freshman, Ismaila Diagne. This is a 7’er with Grade A rim protection abilities. He is a player that has exceled at Real Madrid overseas and I can’t wait to see if Few puts his trust in him to provide defensive depth this year.
🇸🇳 Ismaila Diagne – Diagne excelled in his role as a rebounder, shot-blocker, and play finisher. He dominated the glass with his 7 foot size. He excelled offensively as the pick-and-roll roll man, and showed ability to self-create looks from the post. pic.twitter.com/fwri4VGoYH
Mark Few will also add ISO scorers Khalif Battle (Arkansas) & Michael Ajayi (Pepperdine) into the rotation. They will fall in line in the backcourt behind veterans, Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman. Nembhard will be one of the best point guards in the country this season. I guarantee that. The sky is the limit for this team. Especially in a WCC with a weakened Saint Mary’s. I don’t see how Gonzaga could possibly fall below the 2 line. They have a very good chance at a 1 seed if they are able to handle business in the non-con. 20/1, gimmie.
Florida +6000 (DK &FD):
What is this number? Seriously. The books have this team priced with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State, BYU, etc. Come on now. I firmly believe this Gators team will be challenging for an SEC regular season title. This team is DEEEEEEP in the frontcourt. It is probably my favorite frontcourt in the country from a depth perspective. Alex Condon was big time for this team a season ago as a freshman. I am fully expecting him to compete to make an All-SEC team in the 24/25 season. The Gators are also returning Thomas Haugh. * I have updated this section to remove Handlogten. Florida has publicly stated that this will be a full redshirt year for him, but I am hearing otherwise from a source close to the situation. “Don’t be surprised if he suits up near the end of the SEC season depending on how the season goes”. * You would feel pretty good about entering a season with this Condon and Haugh, but Todd Golden has bolstered this position group even more in the portal. The Gators now have Sam Alexis (Chattanooga) and Rueben Chinyelu (Wazzou) in the fold. Alexis nearly averaged a double-double a season ago, and Chinyelu is having a monster preseason by all accounts. He shined in the most recent scrimmage against FIU. The Gators will be able to pair this fabulous frontcourt with one of the best backcourt trios in the country. Walter Clayton Jr. is that DUDE. I would have him in the Mark Sears and RJ Davis tier in regards to scoring the basketball. Here are his percentile ranks entering the 24/25 season per EvanMiya.com: Free Throws – 99th ; Scoring – 98th ; 3PT Shooting – 97th ; Offensive Impact – 94th ; Steals – 88th. We all remember his nuclear performance against Colorado in the tournament. There is more where that came from for this upcoming season. The Gators are also bringing in dynamic FAU transfer, Alijah Martin. He was a vital piece in the extended Cinderella run that we saw in Boca Raton. Interchanging with Martin and Will Richard between the 2 and the wing will be a great advantage for Golden. I also believe that all of these newcomers will help Golden get this defense to where he wants it to be. Last quick note: Keep your eye on reserve guard, Urban Klavzar. Klavzar was a late summer addition to the Gators roster. He is an international player that has played in many major European tournaments already. He will be an incredible depth piece as he gets accustomed to the college game.
ESPN has named a #Gators guard a top-10 international newcomer for the 2024-25 season.
"(He) is already making an impression with his scoring."
This team is dangerous. Very, very dangerous. Jump on the bandwagon now. We are going to have a fun ride with this team. Sean Miller absolutely crushed the transfer portal. Especially in the backcourt. Ryan Conwell (Indiana State – 16.6 ppg), Marcus Foster (Furman – 17.0 ppg), and Dante Maddox Jr. (Toledo – 15.6 ppg) are bringing massive firepower to this Musketeer offense. These guys are also winning players. Foster and Maddox Jr. have made the NCAA Tournament as mid-major players, and Ryan Conwell was probably robbed of that opportunity by the committee a season ago. However, he took that personally and was dominant in a Sycamore run to the NIT Championship game. I believe that this group will gel really well together. They are also pairing up with returners Dayvion McKnight, Tre Green, and Dailyn Swain. McKnight was 2nd in the Big East a season ago in assist/turnover ratio. He is entering his 5th year of college basketball and will be a great facilitator for this group. Tre Green may get buried in this depth chart, but he is a very capable ballhandler if he gets called upon. I also believe that Dailyn Swain has the opportunity to take the jump into being a big time defender this season. That should help keep him on the floor a bit. Another transfer guard, Roddie Anderson III, will be able to help in the defensive department as well after coming from the Leon Rice school of defense. There is A LOT to be excited about with this group.
Heeeeee’sss Baaaaaacckkkk. The return of Zach Freemantle cannot be understated. This is one of my favorite bigs in the country. His ability to finish around the rim and stretch the floor at his size is so lethal in the college game. He looked healthy and ready to hit the ground running this season in X’s scrimmage against Dayton.
Freemantle’s partner in crime, Jerome Hunter, is also healthy and back from injury. Keeping these guys off of the injury report will be massive to the success of our ticket, but at 75/1 I am going to take the chance of Xavier having a monster season with a great coach at the helm.
Conference Title Tickets:
A-10: Dayton +350 (Draft Kings)
VCU is getting all of the preseason love in this conference. However, I just simply like the Flyers’ roster better. Also, Anthony Grant has a massive edge in the coaching department IMO. Give me the Flyers at this number.
ACC: Duke +135(Fan Duel)
The Blue Devils will be the class of the conference this season. I expect the Tar Heels to take a slide back this year with the losses of Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. North Carolina will be the only challenge to the regular season title for Duke. These are the only two teams even ranked in the preseason AP poll from the ACC. A +140 ticket is not the most “fun” thing to have your money tied up in for months and months, but I believe that this will be a slam dunk hit for us.
American: No Play
Memphis more than likely wins the conference, but I want no part of my money being tied up with that group.
Big 10: Oregon +1500 (Draft Kings)
This may be perceived as a value play with Purdue being the favorite again in this conference, but I believe the Ducks have a legitimate chance to win this league as a debutant. The most important aspect surrounding this year’s Oregon team? A full bill of health. Dana Altman has been piecing things together the last few years due to terrible injury luck. The Ducks are seemingly ready to hit the ground running this season.
“The Oregon Ducks have a healthy roster for the first time in three seasons. Besides a minor injury with Georgetown transfer Supreme Cook (no timetable has been announced but it doesn’t seem serious), Oregon’s head coach Dana Altman believes the Ducks will be able to play at full strength and try to go back to a fast-paced offensive style.
“We are going to go back to the way we have traditionally played… This team will look or try to play the style as our teams in 2021 and before… I feel very comfortable with this group in playing the way we used to play.””
There will be a massive jump for Jackson Sheltad in his sophomore season. I think he could be one of the better two-way players in the country. Altman acquired some much needed backcourt help with Moss and Bamba through the portal. The reserves behind this group of three are a complete wild card, but I expect that group to eat massive minutes. The frontcourt of Oregon has a chance to be really special. Angel, Bittle, both Cook’s, Evans Jr, etc should all be major contributors. Every guy listed brings a little something different to the team. Interchanging these guys based on scheme from game to game is going to be a massive advantage. Dana Altman masterclass on the way.
Big 12: Houston +280 (Draft Kings)
The best team in the country as mentioned above. Gladly will take this play with Kansas being dubbed the favorite.
Big East: Xavier +1000 (Draft Kings)
Taking a shot with our Muskies as mentioned above. UConn (while still good AF) will be down from their recent standards. Maybe this will leave a door cracked for a Cinderella title winner.
SEC: Florida +2700 (Fan Duel)
This is a value play. The top of the SEC is stacked. It is going to be a war all year long. I do believe that Florida is closer to the top than where they are being priced though. Let’s take stab with the Gators here at 27/1.
WCC: No Play
If you have the wealth to lay -250 with Gonzaga and make it worthwhile + have that money sitting out there in the cloud for months .. then more power to you. It is just not worth it for me and I am not in the business of handing out -250 bets haha However, the Zags undoubtedly win this conference.
Wooden Award Future:
Tucker DeVries +18000 (Fan Duel):
You guys want to have a little fun? Let’s add a 180/1 ticket to our portfolio! (please bet responsibly)
Fan Duel. What are you doing here? For comparison, Draft Kings has DeVries priced at +8000. I gladly will jump on this value. This is the definition of a flier bet. This award will likely be given to a player of the likes of RJ Davis, Hunter Dickinson, Mark Sears, Cooper Flagg, etc. These players are incredible and will be on much better teams. Do I think that DeVries has a chance to statistically force himself into at least a conversation? Yes, I do.
DeVries has transferred to West Virginia this season to follow his father from Drake. I am fully expecting him to adapt to power conference basketball very quickly in Morgantown.
Leading scorers against Quad 1 opponents among the field:
DeVries led the country in scoring against Quad 1 opponents a season ago entering the tournament. Yes, the opportunities were limited.. but it goes to show that he does not hide when the competition ramps up. Tucker was also the only player in Division 1 basketball last year to average 20 pts / 6 reb / 3 ast for the season (21.6/ 6.7/ 3.7). This was a major factor in my USBWA vote for Tucker to be an All-American. DeVries is also an underrated defender and recorded 1.6 steals per game. His contributions in all of these categories have continued to rise year over year during his time in Des Moines. I do not expect this to stop this season. Yes, he is transferring to a major conference program, but the surrounding cast is not something that will blow you away. He will concede some shots and opportunities to Javon Small, but I believe that Tucker’s usage (99th percentile per Evan Miya) will continue to be through the roof this season. If he records something close to 23/8/4/2 in the Big 12 this season, then I believe he will be firmly in the conversation for this award. At 180/1, just get us in the conversation.
Higher or Lower: Ken Pom Edition
This is the section that we will be paying attention to the most at the beginning of the year. The books tend to heavily marry their spreads with KenPom ratings to start the season until they start compiling on the court data for their algorithms. If you can correctly spot flawed ratings in the preseason KenPom, then you are in a good spot to attack early. Here are some teams that I expect to finish significantly higher or lower than their current KenPom preseason ratings.
Higher:
Gonzaga – Current ranking – 9th. I have them in my Top 5
Florida – Current ranking – 28th. I have them in my Top 20
Indiana – Current ranking – 39th. I have them in my Top 30
Kentucky – Current ranking -42nd. I have them in my Top 30
Louisville – Current ranking – 64th. I have them in my Top 40
High Point – Current Ranking – 108th. I have them in my Top 60 ** Biggest discrepancy I have from a higher perspective. One of my favorite mid-majors this season. This will be a tournament team out of the Big South.
Arkansas State – Current Ranking – 121st. I have them in my Top 90. I like the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt.
Lower:
Auburn – Current Ranking – 3rd. I have them outside of my Top 10
Texas – Current Ranking – 18th. I have them outside of my Top 30
Illinois – Current Ranking – 23rd. I have them outside of my Top 40
Ohio State – Current Ranking – 31st. I have them outside of my Top 40
VCU – Current Ranking – 41st. I have them outside of my Top 60
Boise State – Current Ranking – 45th. I have them outside of my Top 70
A big thank you if you have made it this far. This preview took some time and I hope you enjoy it. The season kicks off next Monday at Noon with our Cougs, and ends with a heavyweight fight between Gonzaga and Baylor. CAN’T. WAIT.
threepointsniper.com 