12/15 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Coastal Carolina University Athletics)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 10-8-1

12/15 Three Ball:

Coastal Carolina +6.5

Florida Atlantic -4.5

UNCG / USC Upstate over 146

—————————-

Coastal Carolina +6.5: This pick pains me. Normally, I am one of the biggest Terrier supporters in the land. However, they just have not gotten off to a great start this season. Morgan Safford is playing 30 minutes a game as a freshman guard, and is really struggling. Also, Tray Hollowell is forcing the issue and jacking up way too many poor looks now that this is “his team”. These are reasons why I am down on Wofford to start the year. Coastal Carolina has two guards that are a treat for betters. First, Ebrima Dibba is a match-up nightmare. He is a 6’7 guard that can score, assist and rebound. He has pro potential with a big year this season. He showed out in front of a national audience in the Myrtle Beach Invitational last season before his injury, and I expect him to be in the national spotlight again soon. Also, Coastal is led by DeVante Jones (18/7/4 this season). Look for him to have a big night as well.

Score Prediction: Wofford 78 – Coastal Carolina 75

Florida Atlantic -4.5 : Stetson sucks. This is a pure fade Stetson play. The Hatters are shooting it 34% from the field, 29% from 3, 63% from the line, and are turning the ball over 17 times a game. YUCK! FAU is also returning their senior leader, Jailyn Ingram. He will carry the Owls in this matchup and they will cruise to an easy victory.

Score Prediction: FAU 75 – Stetson 64

UNCG / USC Upstate over 146: I love this play from an analytics perspective. To start, USC Upstate is allowing 90 ppg early this season. Not even against Top 25 opponents, but against opponents of similar caliber to UNC Greensboro. Their coach halfway opted out, and is not with the team on game days. They are essentially just showing up and running an open gym type of game. UNCG loves to push the pace and press against an inferior opponent, and USC Upstate will gladly feed into this pace of play. Upstate comes into the match-up 26th in pace of play, and UNCG slides in at 54th. Also, in UNCG’s last match-up against a Top 25 pace squad, the total hit 168 (Coppin State – 22nd). I feel good about this one.

Score Prediction: UNCG 85 – USC Upstate 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/14 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Maryland Athletics)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 10-6-1

12/14 Three Ball:

Maryland -2

Eastern Kentucky -5

Pepperdine -2

—————————-

Maryland -2: This is a tough play to take, considering Maryland just got their doors blown off against Clemson. However, this is the smart play based on where the line is and the analytics behind it. Typically, it is always a smart bet to take when you are laying points with an unranked team against a ranked team in college basketball. Vegas takes a lot of square money in these spots. Also, Rutgers has been very impressive to start the season. 4-0 after what would have been their first tourney birth in ages last season. However, none of these games have been played on the road. Rutgers was 2-8 straight up in true road games last season with this same group of players. I am not eager to believe that they will turn this trend around in their first attempt at a battle tested conference foe this season. To go along with the road record from the previous year, Rutgers is shooting 59% from the line and 32% from deep. Those stats are not conducive to road victories.

Score Prediction: Maryland 72 – Rutgers 67

Eastern Kentucky -5 : This is my favorite play on the card. I may even have a two unit play on this personally. To start, Eastern Kentucky is a great basketball team. They are 5-1 overall, with their only loss coming on the road in overtime to a 7-0 Xavier team. To go along with that, they are 4-1 ATS. Their lone outlier of a weird performance was against the team that they are playing tonight, Morehead State. If you look at it from afar, a 3 point home win (where you don’t cover) is something that would lead you to believe you should stay away from this spot tonight. However, after a deep dive.. we realize that this game was an anomaly. Morehead State shot it 67%!!! from the field. Like, holy shit. 67%. And still lost the game by 3 points. Why? Because they turned the ball over 27 times and shot 36% from the line. Morehead State is just a bad, bad basketball team. They average more turnovers (close to 18 per) than assists, they shoot 44% from the field even with their 67% performance, and they shoot 62% from the line. Vegas has the line here to lure betters in that don’t take a deep dive into the stats and just see the 3 point EKU victory at home from the last match-up. Eastern Kentucky rolls!

Score Prediction: Eastern Kentucky 80 – Morehead State 66

Pepperdine -2: I like this spot due to Pepperdine’s ability to push the pace and score the basketball. Currently hovering around Top 50 in pace. UNLV has struggled out of the gate with teams who play in this fashion – UNC, Alabama, etc. We all know my love for Colbey Ross, and I think he leads an inspired performance from the Waves coming off of a poor loss. This team has tourney aspirations, and cannot afford to lose another game like this with Gonzaga in their conference. Winning the conference tourney is not likely, and they know that. Also, Kessler Edwards is one of the better players that you have never heard of, and he will have a big night as well against a weak UNLV frontcourt. The Waves get a nice road win.

Score Prediction: Pepperdine 79 – UNLV 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/13 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: New York Post)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 8-4-1

12/13 Three Ball (four point play!):

WKU -2

UMass -3

Richmond +8

Penn State +7

———————————–

WKU -2 : Charles. Bassey. He has already me nice money at the Bad Boy Mowers Classic this season, and we are going back to the well. URI does not have much down low to stop him. He will go for 25 and 15 in this match-up easily, and probably more. Also, I love the defensive match-up that the Hilltoppers will bring to Fatts Russell. I am thinking that they will have Taveion Hollingsworth shadowing Fatts, and he is one of the only players in the nation with the speed to keep up with him. Fatts is also pressing this year while shooting a woeful 33% form the field and 25% from 3.

Score Prediction: WKU 78 – URI 71

UMass -3 : I am assuming Vegas loves the team that lost in a back-to-back match-up spot between conference rivals, but I am taking the bait. We won big on the Minutemen on Friday against Northeastern, and we are going to do it again on Sunday. Tre Mitchell will start to earn national respect with another dominant performance.

Score Prediction: UMass 84 – Northeastern 77

Richmond +8: This number is too high. Vegas is continuing to disrespect the Richmond Spiders, and we will continue to make money off of it. The current Mountaineer team is not well-rounded enough to beat a good team by a sizable margin. They are shooting 39.9% from the field and 31.1% from 3 point land. Yes, the Mountaineers will own the glass per usual, but Richmond has high IQ bigs that will draw smart fouls against Tshiebwe and Culver. Richmond’s guard play keeps it close, and they could win it at the end.

Score Prediction: WVU 74 – Richmond 72

Penn State +7

After Penn State burned me with their 20 point meltdown against Seton Hall, I had labeled them a no-touch team for the foreseeable future. However, they have roped me in with a – “hey, you up?” text – type of performance against Va Tech. They were exceptional from the three point line, per usual, and continued to get consistent scoring from 7 deep in the roster. They can score in too many ways to get ran out of the gym at the Crisler Center. Michigan wins this game, but Penn State gets us within the number. If they burn me again ….. I will delete their number and block them …….. I promise ..

Score Prediction: Michigan 81 – Penn State 77

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/12 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Peoria Journal Star)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 7-2-1

12/12 Three Ball:

NDSU -4.5

Samford +18

Illinois -3

NDSU -4.5 : The Bison have had a brutal stretch to start the season. This has included road matchups with Creighton and Kansas. Their record is not indicative of how good this team is. They were 25-8 team last year, and were on their way to a tourney birth before coronavirus cancelled the tournameny. Sure, they lost Shahid .. but they still return vital pieces from last year’s squad. David Richman is a great coach and will have the boys fired up for a rivalry match-up.

Score Prediction: NDSU 72 – North Dakota 64

Samford +18 : I love getting 18 in this spot with Samford. Anthony Edwards and Rayshaun Hammonds are gone for UGA. This team will struggle this season. Yes, they are 4-0.. however, they have not played anyone with a pulse. Samford can score the basketball, and come in with a Top 10 pace in the country. They just scored 96 in a win against a great Belmont team. They will trick a young UGA team into running with them, and it will make this a close game. Samford may even win. I am sprinkling a minimum ML play on Samford as well at +1260.

Score Prediction: UGA 84 – Samford 80

Illinois -3: This one will be a sweat, but I cannot turn my nose at Illinois laying 3 or less. Missouri has veteran guard play that have gotten them off to a hot start this season, but they do not really bring much to the table down low. Cockburn and Giorgi should have big nights for the Illini. I would be nervous if this was the first true road test for Illinois, but they just went into Cameron and made slight work of Duke. Missouri will keep this one tight, and may lead for the majority of the game.. but the Illini have Final Four aspirations this year. They will fight to bring home the road win, and will pull this out late with free throws.

Score Prediction: Illinois 78 – Missouri 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/11 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: umassathletics.com)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 4-2

12/11 Three Ball (four point play!):

UMass -6

Murray State / S Illinois over 136

Iowa -7.5 1H & -12 full game

UMass -6 : The Minutemen will get us going early this Friday afternoon with a winner! They are returning two impact freshmen from last season that should finally have them somewhat competitive in the A 10 this season. First, we will start with Tre Mitchell. He has a chance to be one of the best bigs in the country. He ended last season on a tear, and had 34 & 12 in his last contest against what would’ve been a URI tourney team (go to hell coronavirus). He will be balanced out by his fellow sophomore, T.J. Weeks, at the guard position. He averaged 14.8 ppg as a freshman, and shot 48% from three. Northeastern lost their four leading scorers going into this season, and do not return a senior. I feel good laying the 6 here.

Score Prediction: UMass 78 – Northeastern 66

Murray State / S. Illinois over 136 : We are going off of a pure analytics play in this spot. While both teams have played inferior competition to start the season, they both have shown an intention to push the pace. S. Illinois ranks Top 10 in pace to start the season, and Murray State is shooting 58% from the field. I also love Tevin Brown for Murray State. He can create so much offensively. We get over the total in this one.

Score Prediction: Murray State 75 – Southern Illinois 69

Iowa -7.5 1H & Iowa -12 full game: This is a no brainer. “Lock it and don’t over analyze” is what I have told myself. No need to get lost in the weeds with numbers to talk myself into staying away from this one. Iowa is #3 in the country for good reason. They were head and shoulders better than a ranked Tar Heels team that came into Iowa City this week. The Hawkeyes did allow UNC back into the game at one point, but stretched the lead out in the end for a double digit victory. There will be no let down during the game vs their rivals tonight. Iowa will get out early and look to embarrass the Cyclones. Iowa State is undersized and can’t score the basketball. What are Iowa’s strengths? Post play of Garza and Nunge, to go along with snipers from behind the arc. There is simply no reason to believe Iowa State can keep this close. Iowa will cash these for the four point play!

Score Prediction: Iowa 88 – Iowa State 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/9 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Sentinel Colorado)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 2-1

12/9 Three Ball:

Richmond -7.5

Toledo 1H +8

Pepperdine -3

Richmond -7.5 : Northern Iowa has been very disappointing this year. This is a proud program that is always a front runner for an NCAA bid in The Valley. However, they are not defending or getting great bench minutes this season. Their lone bright spot, AJ Green, is out for tonight’s matchup in Richmond. This team has not been able to compete without him on the court this season, and that will continue tonight. Richmond is battled tested, and flying high with confidence. They will feast on a struggling team without their leader at home.

Score Prediction: Richmond 79 – Northern Iowa 65

Toledo 1H +8 : Toledo has been very impressive to start the season. A perfect 5-0 ATS! This will not last forever, but they are proving Vegas wrong to start this season. I actually think that the full-game spread may be a toss-up, and that is why I am leaning 1H. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Toledo is a team that gets the scoring going early with 1st team All-MAC guard – Marreon Jackson. That should continue tonight. Also, Michigan has come out very slow in all of their contests this season. Showing to be a 2H team. Toledo is shorthanded in the frontcourt from a bench perspective, and that could lead to an impressive 2H from Michigan. Toledo has the players to hang with Michigan until they rack up fouls late in the 2H, and that is why we will cash this 1H play.

Score Predition: Michigan 38 – Toledo 34 1H

Pepperdine -3: This is my favorite play on the card. This line should be higher in my opinion, but Vegas is luring the common public with a Power 5 program getting 3 at a WCC school. However, Pepperdine is the real deal. They have one of the best guards in the country in Colbey Ross. He is averaging a cool 20.8 ppg, while shooting 48% from the field. Also, 6.8 assists per game which is in the Top 25 in the country currently. They also get strong post play from Edwards and Zidek. The Cal Bears just aren’t very good outside of Matt Bradley. Bradley is pressing this season to make up for that, and is coming close to dropping below 40% from the field on the year. Pepperdine rolls at home.

Score Prediction: Pepperdine 75 – Cal 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/8 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: dailyiowan.com)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

12/8 Three Ball:

Creighton +4

Iowa -4

Memphis / MVSU over 155

Creighton +4 : To be honest, I think Creighton wins this game. Take the 17k fans Rock Chalk’ing away.. and Kansas does not bring much to the table so far early in this season. Marcus Garrett is dealing with some type of illness (don’t want to speculate), and he is clearly not himself. There is not really a bucket anywhere down that line-up outside of Agbaji, and he tends to disappear at times. They play solid defense in spirts, but also allowed an undersized NDSU team to essentially even them in attempts at the stripe in their most recent outing. Creighton has the guard play to take a lead in this game, and quite frankly never look back. Expect big nights from Marcus Zagarowski, Mitch Ballock and Damien Jefferson .. to go along with the always strong post play of Chris Bishop. X-Factor is the 7′ Freshman for Creighton – Ryan Kalbrenner. He is giving the Bluejays 10 and 5 off of the bench in 13.7 mins per contest to start the season. A great crutch if Bishop were to get in foul trouble.

Score Prediction: Creighton 78 – Kansas 71

Iowa -4 : As a lifelong Tar Heel, I will put my bias aside to acknowledge what will go down in Iowa City on Tuesday night. Luka Garza is the best player in the country, and that should not shock anyone at this point. UNC has the bodies down low to challenge him, but his class will still shine through for a 20 and 10 type of performance. With that said, the Hawkeyes will win this game in the backcourt instead of the frontcourt. Look for the experienced Bohannan, Wieskamp, Fredrick and McCaffery to exploit the freshmen Carolina backcourt of Caleb Love and RJ Davis.

Score Predition: Iowa 85 – UNC 75

Memphis / MVSU over 155: Listen, Mississippi Valley State sucks. Especially against teams that will get out and run with them. The Mus Bus hung 142 on their heads. What do you love in an over? Pace. MVSU led D1 in pace last year, and come in at 26th this year. Memphis were top 30 last year, and check in at 60th this year. This number will rise for Memphis. They experienced a tough early schedule through the Bad Boy Mowers Classic, and that has this number lower than the standard for Penny Hardaway. In their two games after, they have averaged 84 points. They will go over the century mark tomorrow against a MVSU team that plays no defense. Another nugget, MVSU hit 12 threes in their last outing against a good WKU team. No defense + three pointers – We easily go over the total here.

Score Prediction: Memphis 105 – MVSU 62

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!